Selling • July 18, 2022

Preparing to Sell Your Home: A Complete Checklist

by Phillipa Leseberg

A young man and woman sit on their living room floor next to a pile of boxes.

Getting your home ready to sell can feel like a circus act. Without the right organization, juggling the countless moving parts involved in this stage of the selling process can take its toll. This is the perfect opportunity to create a checklist to keep yourself on track and within your budget. The following information will illuminate the key responsibilities you face as a homeowner as you prepare to hit the market.

We’ve included a comprehensive checklist below of the common tasks required to get your home ready to sell. It is also available as an interactive web page and downloadable pdf here: Get Ready to Sell Checklist

Preparing to Sell Your Home: Working with an Agent

Before you start working on the house itself, it’s best to get the ball rolling on the strategic aspects of selling a home. Working with a real estate agent is the best way to get your home sold for the best price in a timely manner.

A listing agent will represent you throughout the selling process to determine the value of your home, coordinate open houses, market the property, and negotiate with buyers to reach a deal. In the early stages of your discussions with your agent, they will conduct a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) to see what price your home could fetch on the market, accounting for various factors that influence home prices such as seasonality and local market conditions. Based on the findings of your agent’s CMA, you can discuss whether remodeling fits into your go-to-market strategy, and your agent can provide intel on which remodeling projects could deliver significant ROI based on buying trends, your location, and what comparable listings in your market are offering.

Home value estimation tools can help you get an idea of what your home is worth to facilitate your conversations with your agent.

A middle-aged man and woman sit down with their real estate agent.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: FG Trade

Preparing to Sell Your Home: A Complete Checklist

Once you’ve found an agent, you’re ready to get your home in tip-top selling shape. The following checklist is available as a free downloadable PDF here:

Get Ready to Sell Checklist – PDF

Exterior

This list of value-adding curb appeal projects will help to form buyers’ first impressions of your home and make your ever-important exterior listing photos stand out amongst the competition.

Remove peeling and chipped paint; replace with a fresh coat
Fix loose trim and fencing
Clear gutters and downspouts
Make sure there is good exterior lighting and all walkway lights and front-door lanterns work
Clean and repair the roof as needed
Clear garage of clutter and tidy shelves
Inspect chimney for cracks and damage

Yard

Mow and trim grass; re-seed and fertilize where necessary
Prune all overgrown trees and shrubs
Weed flowers beds
Remove or replace dead or diseased plants, shrubs, and trees
Clean grease and oil stains from driveway

Decks/Patios

Paint or stain worn areas on wood decks
Remove grass growing in concrete cracks; sweep off debris from shrubs and trees
Clean all deck rails and make sure they’re secure; replace missing slats or posts
Clean outdoor furniture

Front Door

Polish or stain worn areas on wood decks
Add a fresh coat of paint to get rid of nicks
Clean the glass on the storm door; make certain the screen is secure
Make sure the doorbell operates properly and there are no squeaks when the door opens and closes

Windows

Clean all windows inside and out
If needed, add a fresh coat of paint to the window trims and sills
Make sure all windows open and close easily
Replace cracked windowpanes and those with broken seals
Make sure window screens are clean and secure; replace any screens with holes or tears

Front Entry

Clean entryway floors and area rugs
Downsize clutter in the entry and entry closet to give the appearance of spaciousness
Double-check entry lighting to make sure it works

Interior

Not only will these interior projects get your house sparkling clean, but they’re also preparatory steps for staging your home and hosting open houses.

General Interior Cleaning

Clean all floors, carpets, walls, and trim
Replace burned-out light bulbs
Empty trash
Remove family photos, valuables, and prescription drugs
Tidy up clutter

Kitchen

Fix dripping faucets
Organize pantry and cupboards so they appear clean, neat, and spacious
Make sure the refrigerator and freezer are defrosted and free of odors
Clean the oven and cook top thoroughly
Set the table

Living/Family/Dining Rooms

Give rooms a fresh coat of paint as needed
Repair cracks and holes in ceiling and walls
Make sure all wallpaper is secure
Repaint any woodwork that is worn or chipped
Clean or replace draperies and blinds; open them to maximize light
Make sure draperies and blinds open and close
Steam-clean carpets
Clean rugs and wood flooring, and remove any stains or odors
Position the furniture to showcase the size and space of the room
Remove and replace any attached items, such as chandeliers and draperies, that you wish to move with you
Put away toys and hobby supplies; remove extra magazines and books from tables

Bathrooms

Make sure sinks, tubs, showers, and countertops are clean and free of stains
Repair any leaky faucets
Remove grout and soap stains from tile
Replace any missing or cracked tiles or grout
Make sure all joints are caulked
Make sure all fixtures, including heat lamps and exhaust fans are operating
Install a new shower curtain and buy matching towels
Store all supplies, such as toilet paper, shampoo bottles and cleansers, out of sight

Bedrooms

Repair cracks in ceiling and walls
Apply a fresh coat of paint if necessary
Make sure all wallpaper is secure
Clean draperies and blinds; open them to maximize light
Put away toys, clothes, and clutter
Neatly make up the beds

Basement

Check for water penetration or dampness; call for professional repairs if necessary
Get rid of musty odors
Clean furnace, hot water heater, and drains
Make sure light fixtures work
Arrange storage area in a neat and organized manner
Make sure stairway handrail is secure

Tidy Extras

Use air fresheners or bake treats to make the house smell good
Plant flowers to brighten the walkway and enrich the entry
Remove any indoor houseplants that are brown or losing their leaves
Remove all “fixer” cars, campers, and boats from the property
Discard the clutter of magazines on the coffee and end tables
Tidy and declutter all closets
Hide or get rid of worn-out throw pillows
Store pet supplies
At night, turn on the porch light and outdoor lighting
Put away toys and hobby supplies; remove extra magazines and books from tables

Living • July 3, 2022

How to Plant an Herb Garden

by Phillipa Leseberg

A closeup of a couple small herbal plants.

Homeowners are always seeking ways to breathe new life into the spaces in their homes. Using nature to achieve this transformation is beneficial in several ways. Planting an herb garden not only helps to make your kitchen feel fresh and sustainable, but it can make your food taste better, too. Here are some tips for getting your herb garden started.

How to Plant an Herb Garden

Like other indoor plants, the key to properly supporting your herb garden is to cultivate fertile growing conditions. Herbs love sun, so you’ll want to position your plants in an area where they have access to sunlight. If sunlight is hard to come by in your local climate, consider investing in a grow light. Even if space is limited, the following locations can be a fitting home for your herb garden:

Container Garden

Container gardens give you the flexibility to move your herbs around the house. This can be especially helpful if you get inconsistent or spotty sunlight.

There are various options when choosing materials for your containers. Terra cotta, plastic, and ceramic planters all have their respective advantages, but what’s most important is that you pair the herbs with a container whose size is conducive to its growth and has proper drainage holes.

Hanging Garden

A hanging garden is a stylish way to incorporate nature into your home. To properly set up your hanging garden, you’ll need adequate wall space. Again, prioritize access to sunlight and easy accessibility. Vertical bookshelves can make for a simple, multifunctional hanging garden, while other DIY options can help to spruce up your kitchen. Whichever route you choose, consider using lightweight materials. A mobile hanging garden can come in handy when doing chores and rearranging the house.

Window Box Garden

Box gardens are a fixture of landscaping and gardening design and can help to improve your home’s curb appeal. Once they’re filled with soil, plants, and water, window boxes can be much heavier than you’d expect, so sturdy woods that don’t rot easily—cedar, mahogany, redwood, etc.—are popular material choices. As always, proper drainage is important when crafting your window box garden. If you’re building your window box yourself, drill the proper drainage holes before assembly. Add a layer of landscaping fabric along the bottom to prevent soil from leaking.

A young woman tends to her indoor garden.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: deniskomarov

Easy Herbs to Grow in Your Garden

After you’ve decided where you’ll set up your garden, there’s the question of which herbs to grow. The following herbs are perfectly suited for a beginner gardener’s touch and happen to be culinary staples.

Basil: Fresh basil is a game changer. Sow basil seeds around twelve inches apart to allow them to reach their full potential. This herb will take your homemade pizzas to the next level, kick your pesto recipe up a notch, and provide the perfect garnish for countless other dishes.
Thyme: Rich soil fused with organic matter will create ideal growing conditions for thyme. This herb loves the sun, so making sure it gets plenty of sunlight will maximize its flavor. Thyme pairs perfectly with roasted and slow-cooked dishes, adding a perfect layer of warmth and depth.
Cilantro: Make taco night unforgettable with fresh cilantro. With enough heat, cilantro plants will grow quickly and are known to self-sow for multiple rounds. To clear up confusion, cilantro and coriander come from the same plant. “Cilantro” refers to the leaves, while “coriander” is the name for the plant’s seeds, which are often ground up when used in cooking.
Mint: Potting mint is key to keeping it well maintained. Without a proper container, it will run wild. There are many varieties of mint, ranging from classics like spearmint and peppermint to exotic strands such as chocolate and cinnamon mint.
Parsley: Parsley takes its sweet time to germinate, so consider buying plants rather than seeds to speed up the growing process. Countless recipes lean on the fresh taste of parsley, so you can’t go wrong dedicating a decent amount of real estate in your herb garden to it.
Oregano: Oregano thrives in sunny conditions. To maximize growth, plant its seeds some time in spring when the soil is warm. A staple of Italian cooking, having fresh oregano in your herb garden will give your pizza and pasta recipes an extra kick.
Chives: Known for their grass-like look, chives are closely related to onions but have their own distinct taste. Sow their seeds in spring and water regularly to keep their soil moist. Chives are a flavorful alternate for onions or scallions, while their bright green color makes them a perfect garnish for soups, salads, and sauces.

Market News • Matthew Gardner • June 28, 2022

The Growing Housing Affordability Problem

by Phillipa Leseberg

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew.

If you’ve listened to me at all over the past several years, you’ll know that I am pretty passionate about one subject: housing affordability. And, given the significant price growth that we’ve seen over the past decade, as well as the recent spike in mortgage rates, I wanted to talk a little bit about what might be done to address this very serious issue.

The Growing Housing Affordability Problem

Now, when we think about housing affordability and how it might be solved, a lot of people get tied up in the minutiae when, quite frankly, it really isn’t that hard a problem to solve. You see, there’s one very simple way to address this: to build more housing units. But, as easy as that may sound, there are a lot of obstacles that are holding new supply back. But before I get to that, I want to share some data with you that might help to demonstrate how serious an issue we all face.

Every quarter, the National Association of Homebuilders puts out its affordability numbers for metro areas across the country. An analysis of sales and incomes allows them to show the number of homes—both new and existing—sold in a quarter that were affordable to households making median income.

Housing is Increasingly Unaffordable

Here you will see numbers from just a few of the 240 metropolitan areas across the country and the share of sales in the first quarter of this year that were “technically” affordable. I think you’ll agree that it’s eye opening.

Although I am only showing you a few of the U.S. markets I will tell you that the ten least affordable US housing markets were all in California. The Golden State is also home to 21 of the top 25 least affordable markets in the country. But what you might also find interesting is that our primary cities aren’t the only ones that are suffering from affordability issues, with markets like Bend, Oregon; Boise, Idaho; and even Las Vegas, Nevada becoming increasingly unaffordable for a lot of households.

And it’s worth mentioning that that 48 of the 69 markets where less than half of the homes sold were affordable were in states that have at some point in the past implemented comprehensive planning and growth management legislation. And when governments mandate where homes can and cannot be built, one thing happens: it pushes land prices higher which makes new homes more expensive and limits the amount of new supply that builders are able to provide. So, what can be done?

Well, I will start out by saying that states who have implemented growth management plans, which they generally did to slow or stop suburban sprawl, remain disinclined to move these boundaries, and that means it becomes paramount to not look further out but to concentrate within the urban growth boundaries and decide whether it’s time to think about removing single-family zoning altogether.

This is a fascinating thought, but I must add that I am not suggesting that we do away with single-family homes. Absolutely not! What I am thinking about is the ability for a market to decide what makes the most sense. In order to do so, single-family zones need to allow for the development of denser housing, but also allow the market to decide what’s best. Areas that have implemented such change has given rise to a movement in order to address what is being referred to as “missing middle housing.” For those of you who are unfamiliar with this term let me try and explain.

Missing Middle Housing

This is a great image courtesy of Opticos, a team of urban designers, architects, and strategists who are passionate about adding sorely needed housing options.

They came up with the term “missing middle” as it describes housing types that were actually very common prior to World War II where duplexes, row-homes, and courtyard apartments were in high demand. Unfortunately, however, they are now far less common and, therefore, “missing.”

And the key function of this type of housing is to meet the rising demand for walkable neighborhoods, respond to changing demographics, and provide housing at different price points. You see, rather than focusing on the number of units in a structure—think high rise apartments or condominiums—this type of housing emphasizes scale and heights that are appropriate for and sympathetic to single-family or transitional neighborhoods.

The Decline of Missing Middle Housing Construction

And to show you how supply of these types of units has changed, this chart shows the number of duplexes to eight-unit buildings built over the past almost half-century and you can clearly see that up until the late 1980s they were being built in decent numbers, but the 1990s saw a significant shift toward traditional single-family home ownership and builders followed the demand and this type of product started to become scarcer.

Almost 16% of total new homes built in America in the early 1980s were of this style, but that number has now shrunk to just 1.4%—or a paltry 19,000 units.

But I see demand for these housing types growing as we move forward and that buyers or renters, young and old, will be attracted as it will meet their requirements not only in regards to the type of home they would want to live in but, more importantly, it can be built cheaper than traditional single-family housing and therefore it will be more affordable.

But although this sounds like it’s a remarkably simple solution that can solve all our woes, in reality it’s not that easy for two very specific reasons. The first is that many markets are already essentially built out, meaning that in order to develop this type of product, a builder would have to purchase a number of existing homes and raze them in order to rebuild. But given current home values, it’s very hard for a builder to be able to make such a proposal financially.

And the second issue is that current residents within these “transition” areas—which have been developed as traditional single-family neighborhood—simply don’t want to see change. But is this type of product bad? Here are some examples.

This shows row-homes in Brooklyn on the left and traditional “triple-deckers” in Massachusetts on the right:

A side-by-side look at two different types of East Coast building types: the horizontal Brooklyn Row-Homes and the more vertically constructed Massachusetts "Triple Deckers."

This is a bungalow court project in California:

An interconnected building of California "Bungalow Courts" with low-pitched roofs and small porches, all connected by a winding sidewalk.

Here are some Live/Work Units in Colorado:

A white live/work unit in Buena Vista, Colorado with a second-story patio built onto the right side of the building.

These are some amazing mews homes in Utah:

A community of Mews Homes in South Jordan, Utah painted white with arched windows and small eaves hanging above the doorsteps.

And finally, a new terrace housing project that will be built in Washington DC:

A drawing of Terrace Housing in Washington DC showing facades with many windows lined side-by-side on a city street.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure that some of you who simply aren’t inspired by this type of architecture, and that is understandable. But can we simply stick with the status-quo? I don’t think so. And some state legislators have already implemented significant zoning amendments in order to try and encourage this type of development.

Back in 2018, Minneapolis was the first city to allow this type of development inside single-family zoned areas. This was followed by Oregon State in 2019. Senate Bill 9 was signed by Governor Newsom of California last year which made it legal for property owners to subdivide lots into two parcels and turn single-family homes into duplexes, effectively legalizing fourplexes on land previously reserved for single-family homes. So, we are starting to see some change.

This is a good start but as I mentioned earlier in areas that are already built out, even this type of forward-thinking legislation will not be the panacea that some want. But I’m not giving up hope.

Addressing the “missing middle housing” would allow for homes of all shapes and sizes, for people of all incomes including workers who are essential to our economy and community. Here I am talking about our teachers, firefighters, administrative assistants, childcare providers, and nurses—just to name a few!

There are currently 45 million Americans aged between 25 and 34 and most aspire to homeownership. However, the massive price growth which, by the way, many of us have benefitted from over the past several years, has simply put a “starter home” out of their reach.

I will leave you with one last statistic. Over 28% of American households today are made up of a single people living alone, and it is anticipated that up to 85% of all U.S. households will not include children by the year 2025. Finally, by 2030, one in five Americans will be over the age of 65.

Are we going to meet the needs of the country’s changing demographic going forward? I certainly hope so, but it will take a lot of work for us to get there. As always, if you have any questions or comments about this particular topic, please do reach out to me but, in the meantime, stay safe out there and I look forward to visiting with you all again next month.

Windermere Community • June 21, 2022

Advancing DEI: Windermere’s Continued Commitment to Change

by Phillipa Leseberg

A graphic: blueprint style house with the words “redefining home equity” above it.

Written by: Samantha Enos – Vice President of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion, Windermere Real Estate

Since our company committed to affecting change with regards to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) nearly two years ago, we’ve established several initiatives that have helped us move the needle toward making Windermere a more diverse organization and homeownership more equitable. Guided by our four DEI pillars—community, home ownership, leadership, and culture—we remain focused on finding paths to address discrimination, racism, and inequity within the real estate industry.

Some of our DEI efforts over the past two years:

Hired a VP of DEI who is charged with advancing Windermere’s DEI efforts, as well as supporting Windermere offices with their DEI strategies, planning, and programs
Developed a committee of Windermere agents, staff, and owners to discuss Windermere’s efforts and to provide input on the direction of our DEI strategies
Conducted ongoing DEI training for the Windermere leadership team, as well as for franchise owners and managers
Engaged with state and local REALTOR® associations to audit our developing DEI training and educational opportunities offered to agents through our Professional Development department
Produced instructional documents to educate homeowners on the history of racially restrictive language in property deeds and how to strike/remove such language from their chain of title
Launched a “Race + Real Estate” playlist on the Windermere Spotify channel that offers a selection of podcasts that explore how members of marginalized communities have historically been denied access to homeownership

Sam Smith “Hi Neighbor” Homeownership Fund

Launched in early 2022 through our partnership with non-profit lender HomeSight, the Sam Smith “Hi Neighbor” Homeownership Fund is designed to help low-to-moderate-income home buyers who have been historically underserved by traditional lenders. Through donations from the Windermere Foundation, U.S. Bank, and JP Morgan Chase, the Sam Smith fund is helping to reduce barriers to homeownership by funding loan products for Black/African American first-time home buyers in Washington State.

We have formed a Board of Directors made up of six agents to help manage the program and drive fundraising. As of May 2022, the Sam Smith fund has raised over $127,000 for first-time home buyers, including a personal donation of $50,000 from the Jacobi family to help seed the fund, with over $58,000 raised this year alone. We are actively seeking partnerships with down payment assistance programs in other states to expand our efforts.

Aspire Internship

Formed in partnership with the University of Washington College of Built Environments in July 2021, the inaugural Aspire Internship program produced eight interns, all of whom completed the program and received a $5,000 scholarship. We’ve already seen real-world impact stemming from Aspire, with one of the group project proposals contributing to the creation of an agent scholarship program (see WIN below), and in the hiring of an Aspire alumnus at a Windermere office in Seattle. The program is expanding in summer 2022, with nearly double the number of students participating.

WIN Scholarship Program

The WIN Scholarship Program was created after recognizing the need to build and support a diverse community of new agents. The program provides up to $2,500 for qualified new hires to be used for training, educational purposes, and relieving the financial burden of the startup costs involved with becoming a real estate agent. The program has made an impact outside of Windermere, as well. Using the WIN Scholarship as a model, Washington REALTORS® has established a pilot program in which they will sponsor one year of REALTOR® member dues, six months’ worth of MLS fees, and $400 worth of training for qualified BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, People of Color) agents.

DEI Resources

For more information on our commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion, updates on our company initiatives, and further resources on the history of housing discrimination and its impact on our communities, visit windermere.com/dei.

Buying • June 6, 2022

When is the Best Time to Buy a House?

by Phillipa Leseberg

A man and a woman sitting on the couch in their new home surrounded by moving boxes.

There’s a factor of the home buying process that can often be the catalyst for everything that follows. That factor is timing. Much of the dialogue—rightfully so—around buying a home is focused on the “what.” However, it’s often the case that the “when” is just as important.

So, when is the best time to buy a house? The answer is simple: the best time to buy is the right time for you. Fortunately, knowing when the time is right isn’t some sixth sense, it’s much more concrete. It’s a matter of understanding local market conditions, your financial situation, the status of mortgage rates, and how those factors fit in with your lifestyle changes and your motive for moving.

When is the Best Time to Buy a House?

With so much subjectivity in the decision-making process, it can be helpful to look at cold hard facts to determine whether it’s the right time to buy. Although every real estate transaction is different, your local market conditions will give you a good sense of how to approach the housing market. There are two basic categories: a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. In short, the characteristics of a buyer’s market—high inventory, fewer buyers, lower competition—favors buyers, and the characteristics of a seller’s market—low inventory, many buyers, high competition—favors sellers. You may be in a position where you’re able to wait for favorable buying conditions or you may be thrust into a highly competitive market due to external factors pushing the agenda of your move, such as a career change or starting a family. Regardless of the market conditions you face as a buyer, it’s critical to work with a buyer’s agent to efficiently navigate your local housing market and, when the time comes, prepare a winning offer.

A young couple and their baby unpack boxes in their new home.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: South_agency

Which homes can you afford?

Your financial situation also looms large in deciding whether it’s the right time to buy a house. Before you start looking for homes, assess your buying power. Having greater buying power will show the seller that you’re fully capable of purchasing the home and may vault your offer over others.

To get an idea of what you can afford, use our free Home Monthly Payment Calculator by clicking the button below. With current rates based on national averages and customizable mortgage terms, you can experiment with different values to get an estimate of your monthly payment for any listing price. By using the Home Monthly Payment Calculator, you can make a well-informed estimation of whether it’s the right time to buy.

The Home Buying Process

Moving often goes hand in hand with lifestyle changes. As you’re preparing to buy a house, you may be juggling an employment change, the birth of a child, or any combination of other life-altering events. Buying a home takes time, and although an agent will streamline the buying process, it will inevitably impact your day-to-day schedule. Here’s a quick glance at the steps in the home buying process.

Find the right agent
Get pre-approved for a mortgage
Search for homes
Attend open houses and showings
Make an offer and negotiate
Put down earnest money
Appraisal/Inspection
Closing process
Move into your new home

Seasonality

You’ve undoubtedly heard the age-old real estate maxims about buying in different seasons and how to use the calendar to your advantage to score a good deal on your next home. There’s an element of truth to these sayings, but the best way to get a firm grasp on the effects of seasonality in your area is to work with an experienced, local real estate agent. Their expertise and access to data and tools will be your ultimate resource in tailoring your buying strategy to your local housing market.

Market News • Matthew Gardner • May 23, 2022

Moving Patterns for U.S. Homeowners and Renters in 2021

by Phillipa Leseberg

Hello there. I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to the latest episode of Monday with Matthew. Over the past few months, analysts like myself have been starting to get our hands on early numbers from the Census Bureau and, although we won’t get the bulk of the data for another several months, I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look at some of the information that the government has put out specifically as it relates to patterns.

This is a relevant topic given the pandemic, with many people wondering if we saw a mass shift in where we choose to live because of COVID-19. This belief that we packed up and moved because of the pandemic is, at face value, quite credible, especially given that home sales in 2021 were at levels we haven’t seen since 2006. But the reality, at least from the data we have received so far, actually tells a different story.

Moving Patterns for U.S. Homeowners and Renters in 2021

We Move More Infrequently

A graph showing the geographic mobility of both non-movers and movers in the U.S. from the years 2000 - 2001. The chart shows that 91.6 didn't make a move in 2021, versus 83.9% in 2000.

This first chart looks at people and not households and it shows that, contrary to popular belief, we’re actually moving less frequently now then we have done in decades, with the share of people not moving in a single year rising from just about 84% to over 91½%. Of course, we are having fewer children now than we did, but not to the degree that would change the trend.

Unsurprisingly, Renters Move More Often than Owners

Two charts showing that on average, renters move more often than owners in the span of years between 2000 and 2021. Over this stretch of time, the percentage of renters staying put rose from 67.5% to 84%, while homeowners staying put rose from 90.9% to 95.1%.

And when we break this down between homeowners and renters there is quite the discrepancy between the two groups. Although the number of renters not moving has risen from 67½ percent up to 84% since 2000, the number of homeowners staying put has moved from almost 91% all the way up to 95% last year.

So, the data thus far is not suggesting that we saw any form of mass exodus following the pandemic, in fact we haven’t been moving as much for the past 2-decades, but people did move since COVID-19 hit and the reasons they did were fascinating. The following charts are broken up into four categories of movers: those who moved for family reasons; those who moved for employment related reasons; those that moved for housing related reasons; and finally, those that moved for other reasons.

Reasons to Move (1)

A chart showing the reasons why owners and renters moved. Moving due to a change in marital status was virtually the same, while more renters moved for things like getting a new job and moving closer to work. More owners moved due to retirement and because they lost their job.

So, starting with family-related reasons, it was not surprising to see the major reason for both owners and renters to move was to establish a new household, nor was it surprising to see a greater share of renters headed out on their own than homeowners. Finally, the share of those moving because of a change in marital status was essentially the same between renters and homeowners. And when we look at employment related reasons for people moving last year, a greater share of renters moved because of a new job than homeowners, and more renters moved to be closer to their workplaces than did homeowners. Again, not really surprising, given that a large share of renters work in service-based industries and therefore proximity to their workplaces is important. You will also see that a greater share of homeowners than renters moved because they lost their jobs and, finally—and not at all surprisingly—far more homeowners moved because they chose to retire than renters.

Reasons to Move (2)

A graph showing the housing-related reasons to move for both owners and renters. Noticeable differences include that more renters moved to find cheaper housing and to attend or leave college, while more owners moved for change of climate and health reasons.

And when we look at housing related reasons that people moved, a large share of owners and renters moved from their current home or apartment and into a new, bigger, better house or apartment. A statistically significant share looked to move into a better neighborhood, and I do wonder whether owners were doing this because of the ability to work from home and possibly move to a better location further away from their workplaces. And even though renters tend to stay closer to their workplaces, I wonder whether these renters weren’t in white-collar industries and that the ability to work from home has led them to move into an area that they perceive to be better suited to them.

And finally, a significant share of renters moved because of the fact that rents have been skyrocketing over the past 18-months or so. This clearly impacted some homeowners, too. And finally, under the “other” category, more renters than owners moved because they were either entering or exiting a relationship with a domestic partner, and more renters left to either go to college or because they had completed their degrees.

Health-related reasons for moving had a significant impact on homeowners over renters, and I found it particularly interesting to see a lot of owners saying that “climate” was a reason for their move. Of course, I can only hypothesize as to whether people are simply looking to move to warmer climates or whether climate change is starting to have an increasingly large influence on where we choose to live. My gut tells me that climate change is becoming a far more important consideration for homeowners, although we can’t deny that a lot of people, specifically on the East Coast, moved South during the pandemic.

These next few charts break down movers not just by whether they our owners or renters but also by ethnicity.

2021 Mobility by Ethnicity & Tenure: Owners vs Renters Movers and Non-Movers

Six pie charts showing the non-moving and moving percentages for 2021 among populations of White, Black, and Asian owners (95.1%, 95.6%, and 95.7% respectively for non-movers and 4.9%, 4.4%, and 4.3% respectively for movers) and White, Black, and Asian renters (83.7%, 85.3%, and 84.9% for non-movers respectively, and 16.3%, 14.7%, and 15.1% for movers respectively.)

Here you can see that homeowners across these three ethnicities were pretty much uniform in their desire to stay in their existing home with only 4 to 5% moving. And renters who, as we have already seen, did move more frequently last year than homeowners, were also in a very tight range at between 83 and 85%.

2021 Mobility by Ethnicity & Tenure: Owners vs Renters Movers and Non-Movers (2)

And the same can be said about Hispanic owners and mixed race families, with about 95% not moving last year. Now this is modestly lower than White, Black, or Asian households, but the difference is very marginal. As for renters, between 83 and almost 88% of them within these three ethnicities moved last year, but you will see a bigger share of Hispanic renters stayed put as opposed to all the other ethnicities shown here.

2021 Mobility by Ethnicity & Tenure: Moves In & Out of State

Looking closer now at those who did move, even though fewer Asian households moved when compared to all other ethnicities, far more left the state than stayed, and the same was true for Asian renters with over a quarter moving out of state.

2021 Mobility by Ethnicity & Tenure: Moves In & Out of State (2)

Again, a greater share of the Hispanic homeowners who did move last year stayed in the state where their old house was, and the share of mixed households was roughly at the average for all ethnicities. And the share of Hispanic and mixed-race renters who stayed in State was also about average.

What I see from the data is that the huge shift that many expected during COVID has not been affirmed—at least not by the numbers we have looked at. That said, we are sure to see numerous revisions because of the issues that COVID 19 has posed on Census takers, so we may get a different story as more data is released and revisions posted. What I found to be most interesting in the numbers we have looked at was the massive increase in renters moving in with their “significant others.” But I am not surprised, given that there are around 48½ million people aged between 20 and 30, and this is their time!

And I was also interested in the share of the population who moved due to climate. I will be doing some more digging around in the darkest recesses of the Census Bureau website to see if I can find out more about this. Although I can’t confirm it, my gut tells me that climate—and specifically climate change—will be a factor of growing importance when people are thinking about where they want to live.

Selling • May 23, 2022

What Happens When a Buyer Backs Out of a Real Estate Transaction?

by Phillipa Leseberg

A closeup of a real estate agent and client’s hand examining a contract.

Yes, the dream scenario for selling a home is that the entire process goes off without a hitch. But the reality is that sometimes there will be bumps in the road, and the best thing you can do is work closely with your agent to be prepared for them. One such obstacle is when a buyer decides to terminate their contract to purchase your home after all the terms have been agreed to. So, what’s a seller to do? Here’s a quick overview of how to prepare for this situation and the important role contingencies play when selling your home.

What Happens When a Buyer Backs Out of a Real Estate Transaction?

To be clear, a buyer can back out of a real estate transaction. The outcomes of doing so vary greatly. In certain cases, the buyer walks from the table with all their money intact. In others, they will have some fiduciary responsibility to the seller. If a buyer is hesitant about purchasing a home, the best time to back out of the deal is before their offer is accepted. As things progress, the ramifications of a buyer backing out can get messier. Once the purchase agreement is signed by both parties, it becomes legally binding, and the sale of the property can proceed.

After your agent and the buyer’s agent agree on purchasing terms, the buyer will place their earnest money—a deposit of funds to indicate that the buyer is serious about their offer and intends to pay the seller—in escrow to make sure they distribute properly when the deal goes through. Whether the buyer is on the hook for the funds in escrow depends on the terms of the contract, how far along you are in the selling process, and the corresponding state laws where the home is being sold. If a buyer backs out of the deal for a reason that was not stipulated in the real estate contract, then the funds will typically go to the seller. Still, this scenario can leave sellers scratching their heads. It’s not as if they’ve done anything wrong, and they thought they had found the right buyer, only to have the carpet ripped out from under them at the last minute. So, how can you protect yourself when selling your home?

A real estate agent and his clients examine a real estate contract.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Paperkites

The Importance of Contingencies

This situation highlights the importance of contingencies. Contingencies exist to protect buyers and sellers from the unknowns of a real estate transaction. Buyers will typically include contingencies in their offer to specify the criteria that will allow them to walk away from the deal unscathed and the timeframes for doing so. As a seller, it’s critical that you work closely with your agent to understand the terms of the buyer’s offer. Read about Common Real Estate Contingencies to understand the ins and out of the different contingencies buyers will generally tie to their offer.

What to Do After a Home Buyer Backs Out

Backup Offers

Backup offers are made with the knowledge that an existing offer is already on the table. They stipulate that if the first offer falls through, the second buyer’s offer is accepted. Talk to your agent about the possibility of accepting backup offers when you sell your home. Whether a buyer backs out due to buyer’s remorse, something they discover in the home inspection process, or for any other reason, backup offers can act as a remedy for their indecision by keeping the line moving to the next buyer.

If a backup offer isn’t on the table, the seller is left with the decision of whether to sell again. It’s true that a relisted home may elicit questions from buyers. They will want to know why the home is being relisted and what went wrong with the previous offer. It’s important to coordinate your relisting strategy with your agent and discuss what disclosures are appropriate. It may be discouraging to deal with a buyer backing out but remember that selling a home is all about finding the right fit. A buyer walking away doesn’t mean your home isn’t worthy of a winning offer, it just means that you haven’t found the right buyer yet.

Living • May 10, 2022

A Quick Guide to Urban Farming

by Phillipa Leseberg

An urban farm with four raised garden beds full of plants.

Urban farming can be a fun way to produce your own nutritious and sustainable food supply for your household while learning about self-sufficiency and gardening. Though urban farming likely won’t replace your household’s entire food intake, it is an environmentally friendly complement that can help lower your reliance upon commercial grocery stores over time.

A Quick Guide to Urban Farming

What is urban farming?

Urban farming or urban agriculture comes in many forms. Whether it’s a backyard or rooftop garden, a community agricultural space, or a small balcony plot, urban farming is the practice of cultivating food by those who live in cities or densely populated areas. Typically using raised garden beds to house produce, urban farming promotes sustainability, health, and a connection to nature. Whether you’re looking to grow a few simple fruits and vegetables or seek to cultivate a flourishing garden, here’s how you can get started.

Plot Out Your Garden

Whether you have a spacious backyard waiting to be tilled into gardening heaven or a smaller, unused section of your flower beds, how much space you’re working with will determine the arrangement of your urban farm. Research the crops you intend to plant and how much space they require, then take measurements in your gardening space before buying materials. Your raised gardening beds should be anywhere from six to thirty-six inches deep. Keeping them less than four feet wide will make it easier to reach across when watering, weeding, and planting.

Planting Your Garden

Once you’ve plotted out your garden space, there are a series of decisions to make about your garden; namely which crops you want to grow, how you’ll pot other plants and flowers, whether you’re going to start from seeds or seedlings, and deciding between manual and automatic watering. If you’re starting from seeds, know that the growing process will take longer, whereas seedlings can help to speed things up. Creating an automatic watering system requires an upfront investment, but you’ll save time, and you won’t have worry about under-watering or dehydrating your garden.

A family works in their home garden. The daughter waters the plants.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: FatCamera

Raising Chickens and Keeping Bees

Keeping animals on your property presents new opportunities for sustenance, but it also introduces new challenges. Two animals urban farmers often choose to raise are chickens and bees, which take up a lot less space that other livestock. Before starting either venture, check your local zoning laws.

If you intend to raise chickens, you’ll need to build a coop first. The size of your chicken coop will depend on whether your chickens are able to forage outside the coop or not. If you have the space to let the chickens out, allow two to three square feet per bird in the coop. If the chickens must stay in the coop, you’ll want to make sure they have plenty of space, so it’s recommended to allow five to ten square feet per bird.

A group of chickens in a backyard coop.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: KseniaShestakova

The key features of a chicken coop include roosts, nest boxes, dust baths, lighting, and protection from local predators. Search online or locally for pre-made chicken coops that fit your property’s needs or make it a DIY project. A commercial poultry feed will provide your chickens with the basic nutrients they need, but keep in mind that many foods outside of their normal diet can alter egg flavor and have adverse health effects. So, if you’re thinking about incorporating table scraps into their diet, make sure those foods agree with their systems before doing so.

To keep bees at home, start by reaching out to local beekeeping associations to inquire about purchasing bees and when you can expect your colony to arrive. Once you have a timeline set, you can go about gathering supplies. There are two common hive systems used for keeping bees: a Langstroth hive; which is a system of stacked rectangular boxes with removable frames, and a top-bar hive; which is a series of horizontally connected boxes. Gear up by purchasing protective beekeeping clothing, tools, and feeding supplies. After you introduce your bees to their new hive, continually monitor their behavior and tend to their seasonal needs. Spring is generally the best time of year to start a hive, since it gives bees plenty of time to build up their colony and produce and store honey before winter arrives.

Market News • Matthew Gardner • Regional Market Update • April 28, 2022

Q1 2022 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

by Phillipa Leseberg

Q1 2022 Western Washington Real Estate Market Trends

The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

The post-COVID job recovery continues. Though data showed the number of jobs dropped in January, February saw gains that almost offset the jobs lost the prior month. As of February (March data is not yet available), the region had recovered all but 47,000 of the more than 300,000 jobs lost due to the pandemic. Of note is that employment levels in Grays Harbor, Thurston, San Juan, and Clallam counties are now above their pre-pandemic levels. In February, the regional unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 3.7% in December. Although this may be disconcerting, an improving economy has led more unemployed persons to start looking for a job, which has pushed the jobless rate higher. I expect the regional economy to continue expanding as we move into the spring and summer, with a full job recovery not far away.

Western Washington Home Sales

❱ In the first quarter of 2022, 15,134 homes sold, representing a drop of 5.8% from the same period a year ago, and down 31.7% from the fourth quarter.

❱ Yet again, supply-side constraints limited sales. Every county except Snohomish showed lower inventory levels than a year ago.

❱ Sales grew in five counties across the region but were lower across the balance of the counties contained in this report. Compared to the fourth quarter, sales were lower across all market areas.

❱ The ratio of pending sales (demand) to active listings (supply) showed pending sales outpacing listings by a factor of 6.7. Clearly, the significant jump in mortgage rates in the first quarter has not yet impacted demand. Rather it appears to have stimulated buyers partly due to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)!

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Western Washington between Q1 2021 and Q1 2022.

Western Washington Home Prices

❱ Although financing costs have jumped, this has yet to prove to be an obstacle to buyers, as prices rose 16.4% year-over-year to an average of $738,152. Naturally, there is a lag between rates rising and any impact on market prices. It will be interesting to see what, if any, effect this has in the next quarter’s report.

❱ Compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was again strongest in San Juan County, but all markets saw prices rising more than 10% from a year ago.

❱ Relative to the final quarter of 2021, all but Kitsap (-2.7%), Mason (-1.5%), Skagit (-1.8%), Jefferson (-6.3%), and Clallam (-0.1%) counties saw home prices rise.

❱ The market remains supply starved. While increases in “new” listings suggest that more choice is coming to market, it remains insufficient to meet demand.

A map showing the year-over-year real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Western Washington for Q1 2022.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Western Washington from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022.

Mortgage Rates

Average rates for a 30-year conforming mortgage were 3.11% at the end of 2021, but since then have jumped over 1.5%—the largest increase since 1987. The surge in rates is because the market is anticipating a seven- to eight-point increase from the Federal Reserve later this year.

Because the mortgage market has priced this into the rates they are offering today, my forecast suggests that we are getting close to a ceiling in rates, and it is my belief that they will rise modestly in the second quarter before stabilizing for the balance of the year.

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Utah during the third quarter of 2021.

Western Washington Days on Market

❱ It took an average of 25 days for a home to go pending in the first quarter of 2022. This was 4 fewer days than in the same quarter of 2020, but 2 days more than in the fourth quarter of 2021.

❱ Snohomish, King, and Pierce counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 11 to 15 days to sell. The greatest drop in market time compared to a year ago was in San Juan County, where it took 23 fewer days for homes to sell.

❱ All but five counties saw average time on market drop from the same period a year ago, but the markets where it took longer to sell a home saw the length of time increase only marginally.

❱ Quarter over quarter, market time dropped in Snohomish, King, and Pierce counties. Jefferson and Clallam counties also saw modest improvement. In the balance of the region the length of time a home was on the market rose, but seasonality undoubtedly played a part.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Utah during the third quarter of 2021.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The numbers have yet to indicate that demand is waning amid rising interest rates, but this is sure to become a greater factor as we move into the spring. A leading indicator I pay attention to is changes to list prices and, in most counties, these continue to increase. This suggests that sellers remain confident they will be able to find a buyer even in the face of higher borrowing costs. If this pace of increase starts to soften, it may be an indication of an inflection point, but it does not appear to be that way yet.

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Western Washington during Q1 2022.

Given all the factors discussed above, I have decided to leave the needle in the same position as the last quarter. The market still heavily favors sellers, but if rates rise much further, headwinds will likely increase.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market News • Matthew Gardner • April 28, 2022

The Current State of the U.S. Housing Market

by Phillipa Leseberg

Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. With home prices continuing to defy gravity, mortgage rates spiking, the Fed raising interest rates significantly, a yield curve that is just keeping its nose above water, and some becoming vocal about the possibility that we are going to enter a recession sooner rather than later, it’s not at all surprising that many of you have been asking me whether the housing market is going to pull back significantly, and a few of you have asked whether we aren’t in some sort of “bubble” again.

Because this topic appears to be giving many of you heartburn, I decided that it’s a good time to reflect on where the housing market is today and give you my thoughts on the impact of rising mortgage rates on what has been an historically hot market.

The Current State of the U.S. Housing Market

Home Sale Prices

A slide titled "Home Sale Prices" showing the U.S. media home sale prices from 1990 to 2022. From 1990 to 2006, there was a positive 142% change. From 2006 to 2012, there was a negative 33% change. And from 2012 to 2022, there has been a positive 1315 change, with the most recent U.S. median sale price shown at $357,300.

As usual, a little perspective. Between 1990 and the pre-bubble peak in 2006, home prices rose by 142%, which was a pretty impressive annual increase of 5.6% over a 16 1/2-year period. When the market crashed, prices dropped by 33%, but from the 2012 low to today, prices have risen by 131%, or at an even faster annual rate of 8.6% over a shorter period of time—10 years.

You may think that prices rising at an annual rate that exceeds the pace seen before the market crash is what has some brokers and home buyers concerned, but that really isn’t what has many people scared. It’s this.

Mortgage Rates in 2022

A slide titled "Mortgage Rates in 2022" showing the increase in 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rates between December 30, 2021 (3.11%) and April 14, 2022 (5%).

At the start of 2022, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was just a little above 3%. But, over a brief 15-week period, they have skyrocketed to 5%. This has led some to worry that the market is about to implode. Of course, nobody can say that the run-up in home prices hasn’t been phenomenal over the past few years, and it’s certainly human nature to think that “what goes up, must come down,” but is there really any reason to panic? I think not, and to explain my reasoning, let’s look back in time to periods when rates rose significantly and see how increasing mortgage rates impacted the marketplace.

Housing and Mortgage Markets During Times of Rising Rates

A slide titled "Housing & Mortgage Markets During Times of Rising Rates." Two extreme statistics are as follow: Between June 2005 and July 2006 there was a negative 32.3% change in housing starts and between October 1993 and December 1994 there was a negative 12.7% change in home sales.

This table shows seven periods over the past 30 years when mortgage rates rose significantly. On average, rates trended higher for just over a year before pulling back, and the average increase was 1.4%. But now look at how it impacted home prices: it really didn’t. On average, during these periods of rising financing costs, home prices still rose by just over 5%. Clearly, not what some might have expected. But there were some negatives from mortgage rates trending higher, and these came in the form of lower sales in all but one period and new housing starts also pulled back.

So, if history is any indicator, the impact of the current jump in mortgage rates is likely to be seen in the form of lower transactions rather than lower prices. And this makes sense. Although rising financing costs puts additional pressure on housing affordability, what people don’t appear to think about is that mortgage rates actually tend to rise during periods of economic prosperity. And what does a flourishing economy bring? That’s right. Rising wages. Increasing incomes can certainly offset at least some of the impacts of rising mortgage rates.

Static Equilibrium Analysis – 1/3

A slide titled "Static Equilibrium Analysis" showing that the P&I payment would be $1,365 for a $357,300 home with a 4% mortgage rate, using the February 2022 U.S. median sale price. This assumes the buyer has put down 20% on the home.

To try and explain this, I’m using the median US sale price in February of this year, assuming a 20% down payment and the mortgage rate of 4%. And you can see that the monthly P&I payment would be $1,365. But as mortgage rates rise, and if buyers wanted to keep the same monthly payment, then they would have to buy a cheaper home. Using a rate of 5%, a buyer could afford a home that was 9% cheaper if they wanted to keep the payment the same as it would have been if rates were still at 4%.

But, as I mentioned earlier, an expanding economy brings higher wages, and this is being felt today more than usual, given the worker shortage that exists and businesses having to raise compensation. Average weekly wages have risen by over five-and-a-half percent over the past year—well above the pre-pandemic average of two-and-a-half percent. Although increasing incomes would not totally offset rising mortgage rates, it does have an impact.

Static Equilibrium Analysis – 2/3

A slide titled "Static Equilibrium Analysis" showing what home buyers would be able to afford at different mortgage rates, using the U.S. average household income of $70,611, assuming they've put 20% of their gross income down for the down payment. At 4%, they could afford a home just under $360,000 and at 5%, they could afford a home at $321,038.

To demonstrate this, let’s use the U.S. average household income of $70,611. Assuming that they’ve put aside 20% of their gross income for a down payment, they could afford a home priced just under $360,000 if mortgage rates were at 4%. As rates rise—and assuming that their income doesn’t—their buying power is reduced by over 10%, or just over $38,000.

Static Equilibrium Analysis – 3/3

A follow up to the "Static Equilibrium Analysis" slide showing that if the average income were raised to $74,848, the buyer would be able to afford a home of $340,302 at a 5% mortgage rate.

But if we believe that incomes will rise, then the picture looks very different. Assuming wages rise by 6%, their buying power drops by just 5% if rates rose from 4% to 5%, or a bit less than $19,000.

Although rates have risen dramatically in a short period, because they started from an historic low, the overall impacts are not yet very significant. If history is any indicator, mortgage rates increasing are likely to have a more significant impact on sales, but a far smaller impact on prices.

But there are other factors that come into play, too. Here I’m talking about demand. The only time since 1968 that home prices have dropped on an annualized basis was in 2007 through 2009 and in 2011, and this was due to a massive increase in the supply of homes for sale. When supply exceeds demand, prices drop.

So, how is it different this time around? Well, we know that the supply glut that we saw starting to build in mid-2006 was mainly not just because households were getting mortgages that, quite frankly, they should never have gotten in the first place, but a very large share held adjustable rate mortgages which, when the fixed interest rate floated, they found themselves faced with payments that they could not afford. Many homeowners either listed their homes for sale or simply walked away.

Although it’s true that over the past two or so months more buyers have started taking ARMs as rates rose, it’s not only a far smaller share than we saw before the bubble burst, but down payments and credit quality remained far higher than we saw back then.

So, if we aren’t faced with a surge of inventory, I simply don’t see any reason why the market will see prices pull back significantly. But even if we do see listing activity increase, I still anticipate that there will be more than enough demand from would-be buyers. I say this for several reasons, the first of which is inflation.

What a lot of people aren’t talking about is the proven fact that owning real estate is a significant hedge against rising inflation. You see, most buyers have a mortgage, and a vast majority use fixed-rate financing. This is the hedge because even as consumer prices are rising, a homeowner’s monthly payments aren’t. They remain static and, more than that, their monthly payments actually become lower over time as the value of the dollar diminishes. Simply put, the value of a dollar in—let’s say 2025—will be lower than the value of a dollar today.

But this isn’t the only reason that inflation can actually stimulate the housing market. Home prices historically have grown at a faster pace than inflation.

Hedge Against Inflation

A slide titled "Hedge Against Inflation" showing a line graph of the average annual inflation and change in median home price from 1969 to 2021. While the average annual inflation fluctuates between 1% and 5% for most of the chart except for the mid-70s and early-80s, the change in median home price fluctuates between 25% in the late-70s to roughly negative 12% in 2009.

This chart looks at the annual change in total CPI going back to 1969. Now let’s overlay the annual change in median U.S. home prices over the same time period. Other than when home prices crashed with the bursting of the housing bubble, for more than fifty years home price growth has outpaced inflation. And this means we are offsetting high consumer prices because home values are increasing at an even faster rate.

But inflation has additional impacts on buyers. Now I’m talking about savings. As we all know, the interest paid on savings today is pretty abysmal. In fact, the best money market accounts I could find were offering interest rates between 0.5% and 0.7%. And given that this is significantly below the rate of inflation, it means that dollars saved continue to be worth less and less over time while inflation remains hot.

Now, rather than watching their money drop in value because of rising prices, it’s natural that households would look to put their cash to work by investing in assets where the return is above the rate of inflation—meaning that their money is no longer losing value—and where better place to put it than into a home.

Housing as a Hedge Against Inflation

A slide titled "Housing as a Hedge Against Inflation" showing that most home buyers finance their purchase at a fixed-rate of interest, which is not susceptible to inflation. Mortgage payments are fixed, therefore as incomes rise, the payments actually become cheaper.

So, the bottom line here is that inflation supports demand from home buyers because:

Most are borrowing at a fixed rate that will not be impacted by rising inflation
Monthly payments are fixed, and these payments going forward become lower as incomes rise, unlike renters out there who continue to see their monthly housing costs increase
With inflation at a level not seen since the early 1980s, borrowers facing 5% mortgage rates are still getting an amazing deal. In fact, by my calculations, mortgage rates would have to break above 7% to significantly slow demand, which I find highly unlikely, and
If history holds true, home price appreciation will continue to outpace inflation

Demand appears to still be robust, and supply remains anemic. Although off the all-time low inventory levels we saw in January, the number of homes for sale in March was the lowest of any March since record keeping began in the early 1980’s.

But even though I’m not worried about the impact of rates rising on the market in general, I do worry about first-time buyers. These are households who have never seen mortgage rates above 5% and they just don’t know how to deal with it! Remember that the last time the 30-year fixed averaged more than 5% for a month was back in March of 2010!

And given the fact that these young would-be home buyers have not benefited from rising home prices as existing homeowners have, as well as the fact that they are faced with soaring rents, making it harder for them to save up for a down payment on their first home, many are in a rather tight spot and it’s likely that rising rates will lower their share of the market.

So, the bottom line as far as I am concerned is that mortgage rates normalizing should not lead you to feel any sort of panic, and that current rates are highly unlikely to be the cause of a market correction.

And I will leave you with this one thought. If you agree with me that a systemic drop in home prices has to be caused by a significant increase in supply, and that buyers who are currently taking out adjustable-rate mortgages are more qualified, and therefore able to manage to refinance their homes when rates do revert at some point in the future, then what will cause listings to rise to a point that can negatively impact prices?

It’s true that a significant increase in new home development might cause this, but that is unlikely. And as far as existing owners are concerned, I worry far more about a prolonged lack of inventory. I say this for one very simple reason and that is because a vast majority off homeowners either purchased when mortgage rates were at or near their historic lows, or they refinanced their current homes when rates dropped.

And this could be the biggest problem for the market. Even if rates don’t rise at all from current levels, I question how many owners would think about selling if they were to lose the historically low mortgage rates that they have locked into. It is quite possible that for this one reason, we may experience a tight housing market for several more years.