There’s a factor of the home buying process that can often be the catalyst for everything that follows. That factor is timing. Much of the dialogue—rightfully so—around buying a home is focused on the “what.” However, it’s often the case that the “when” is just as important.
So, when is the best time to buy a house? The answer is simple: the best time to buy is the right time for you. Fortunately, knowing when the time is right isn’t some sixth sense, it’s much more concrete. It’s a matter of understanding local market conditions, your financial situation, the status of mortgage rates, and how those factors fit in with your lifestyle changes and your motive for moving.
When is the Best Time to Buy a House?
With so much subjectivity in the decision-making process, it can be helpful to look at cold hard facts to determine whether it’s the right time to buy. Although every real estate transaction is different, your local market conditions will give you a good sense of how to approach the housing market. There are two basic categories: a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. In short, the characteristics of a buyer’s market—high inventory, fewer buyers, lower competition—favors buyers, and the characteristics of a seller’s market—low inventory, many buyers, high competition—favors sellers. You may be in a position where you’re able to wait for favorable buying conditions or you may be thrust into a highly competitive market due to external factors pushing the agenda of your move, such as a career change or starting a family. Regardless of the market conditions you face as a buyer, it’s critical to work with a buyer’s agent to efficiently navigate your local housing market and, when the time comes, prepare a winning offer.
Your financial situation also looms large in deciding whether it’s the right time to buy a house. Before you start looking for homes, assess your buying power. Having greater buying power will show the seller that you’re fully capable of purchasing the home and may vault your offer over others.
To get an idea of what you can afford, use our free Home Monthly Payment Calculator by clicking the button below. With current rates based on national averages and customizable mortgage terms, you can experiment with different values to get an estimate of your monthly payment for any listing price. By using the Home Monthly Payment Calculator, you can make a well-informed estimation of whether it’s the right time to buy.
The Home Buying Process
Moving often goes hand in hand with lifestyle changes. As you’re preparing to buy a house, you may be juggling an employment change, the birth of a child, or any combination of other life-altering events. Buying a home takes time, and although an agent will streamline the buying process, it will inevitably impact your day-to-day schedule. Here’s a quick glance at the steps in the home buying process.
Find the right agent
Get pre-approved for a mortgage
Search for homes
Attend open houses and showings
Make an offer and negotiate
Put down earnest money
Appraisal/Inspection
Closing process
Move into your new home
Seasonality
You’ve undoubtedly heard the age-old real estate maxims about buying in different seasons and how to use the calendar to your advantage to score a good deal on your next home. There’s an element of truth to these sayings, but the best way to get a firm grasp on the effects of seasonality in your area is to work with an experienced, local real estate agent. Their expertise and access to data and tools will be your ultimate resource in tailoring your buying strategy to your local housing market.
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there. I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to the latest episode of Monday with Matthew. Over the past few months, analysts like myself have been starting to get our hands on early numbers from the Census Bureau and, although we won’t get the bulk of the data for another several months, I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look at some of the information that the government has put out specifically as it relates to patterns.
This is a relevant topic given the pandemic, with many people wondering if we saw a mass shift in where we choose to live because of COVID-19. This belief that we packed up and moved because of the pandemic is, at face value, quite credible, especially given that home sales in 2021 were at levels we haven’t seen since 2006. But the reality, at least from the data we have received so far, actually tells a different story.
Moving Patterns for U.S. Homeowners and Renters in 2021
We Move More Infrequently
This first chart looks at people and not households and it shows that, contrary to popular belief, we’re actually moving less frequently now then we have done in decades, with the share of people not moving in a single year rising from just about 84% to over 91½%. Of course, we are having fewer children now than we did, but not to the degree that would change the trend.
Unsurprisingly, Renters Move More Often than Owners
And when we break this down between homeowners and renters there is quite the discrepancy between the two groups. Although the number of renters not moving has risen from 67½ percent up to 84% since 2000, the number of homeowners staying put has moved from almost 91% all the way up to 95% last year.
So, the data thus far is not suggesting that we saw any form of mass exodus following the pandemic, in fact we haven’t been moving as much for the past 2-decades, but people did move since COVID-19 hit and the reasons they did were fascinating. The following charts are broken up into four categories of movers: those who moved for family reasons; those who moved for employment related reasons; those that moved for housing related reasons; and finally, those that moved for other reasons.
Reasons to Move (1)
So, starting with family-related reasons, it was not surprising to see the major reason for both owners and renters to move was to establish a new household, nor was it surprising to see a greater share of renters headed out on their own than homeowners. Finally, the share of those moving because of a change in marital status was essentially the same between renters and homeowners. And when we look at employment related reasons for people moving last year, a greater share of renters moved because of a new job than homeowners, and more renters moved to be closer to their workplaces than did homeowners. Again, not really surprising, given that a large share of renters work in service-based industries and therefore proximity to their workplaces is important. You will also see that a greater share of homeowners than renters moved because they lost their jobs and, finally—and not at all surprisingly—far more homeowners moved because they chose to retire than renters.
Reasons to Move (2)
And when we look at housing related reasons that people moved, a large share of owners and renters moved from their current home or apartment and into a new, bigger, better house or apartment. A statistically significant share looked to move into a better neighborhood, and I do wonder whether owners were doing this because of the ability to work from home and possibly move to a better location further away from their workplaces. And even though renters tend to stay closer to their workplaces, I wonder whether these renters weren’t in white-collar industries and that the ability to work from home has led them to move into an area that they perceive to be better suited to them.
And finally, a significant share of renters moved because of the fact that rents have been skyrocketing over the past 18-months or so. This clearly impacted some homeowners, too. And finally, under the “other” category, more renters than owners moved because they were either entering or exiting a relationship with a domestic partner, and more renters left to either go to college or because they had completed their degrees.
Health-related reasons for moving had a significant impact on homeowners over renters, and I found it particularly interesting to see a lot of owners saying that “climate” was a reason for their move. Of course, I can only hypothesize as to whether people are simply looking to move to warmer climates or whether climate change is starting to have an increasingly large influence on where we choose to live. My gut tells me that climate change is becoming a far more important consideration for homeowners, although we can’t deny that a lot of people, specifically on the East Coast, moved South during the pandemic.
These next few charts break down movers not just by whether they our owners or renters but also by ethnicity.
2021 Mobility by Ethnicity & Tenure: Owners vs Renters Movers and Non-Movers
Here you can see that homeowners across these three ethnicities were pretty much uniform in their desire to stay in their existing home with only 4 to 5% moving. And renters who, as we have already seen, did move more frequently last year than homeowners, were also in a very tight range at between 83 and 85%.
2021 Mobility by Ethnicity & Tenure: Owners vs Renters Movers and Non-Movers (2)
And the same can be said about Hispanic owners and mixed race families, with about 95% not moving last year. Now this is modestly lower than White, Black, or Asian households, but the difference is very marginal. As for renters, between 83 and almost 88% of them within these three ethnicities moved last year, but you will see a bigger share of Hispanic renters stayed put as opposed to all the other ethnicities shown here.
2021 Mobility by Ethnicity & Tenure: Moves In & Out of State
Looking closer now at those who did move, even though fewer Asian households moved when compared to all other ethnicities, far more left the state than stayed, and the same was true for Asian renters with over a quarter moving out of state.
2021 Mobility by Ethnicity & Tenure: Moves In & Out of State (2)
Again, a greater share of the Hispanic homeowners who did move last year stayed in the state where their old house was, and the share of mixed households was roughly at the average for all ethnicities. And the share of Hispanic and mixed-race renters who stayed in State was also about average.
What I see from the data is that the huge shift that many expected during COVID has not been affirmed—at least not by the numbers we have looked at. That said, we are sure to see numerous revisions because of the issues that COVID 19 has posed on Census takers, so we may get a different story as more data is released and revisions posted. What I found to be most interesting in the numbers we have looked at was the massive increase in renters moving in with their “significant others.” But I am not surprised, given that there are around 48½ million people aged between 20 and 30, and this is their time!
And I was also interested in the share of the population who moved due to climate. I will be doing some more digging around in the darkest recesses of the Census Bureau website to see if I can find out more about this. Although I can’t confirm it, my gut tells me that climate—and specifically climate change—will be a factor of growing importance when people are thinking about where they want to live.
Yes, the dream scenario for selling a home is that the entire process goes off without a hitch. But the reality is that sometimes there will be bumps in the road, and the best thing you can do is work closely with your agent to be prepared for them. One such obstacle is when a buyer decides to terminate their contract to purchase your home after all the terms have been agreed to. So, what’s a seller to do? Here’s a quick overview of how to prepare for this situation and the important role contingencies play when selling your home.
What Happens When a Buyer Backs Out of a Real Estate Transaction?
To be clear, a buyer can back out of a real estate transaction. The outcomes of doing so vary greatly. In certain cases, the buyer walks from the table with all their money intact. In others, they will have some fiduciary responsibility to the seller. If a buyer is hesitant about purchasing a home, the best time to back out of the deal is before their offer is accepted. As things progress, the ramifications of a buyer backing out can get messier. Once the purchase agreement is signed by both parties, it becomes legally binding, and the sale of the property can proceed.
After your agent and the buyer’s agent agree on purchasing terms, the buyer will place their earnest money—a deposit of funds to indicate that the buyer is serious about their offer and intends to pay the seller—in escrow to make sure they distribute properly when the deal goes through. Whether the buyer is on the hook for the funds in escrow depends on the terms of the contract, how far along you are in the selling process, and the corresponding state laws where the home is being sold. If a buyer backs out of the deal for a reason that was not stipulated in the real estate contract, then the funds will typically go to the seller. Still, this scenario can leave sellers scratching their heads. It’s not as if they’ve done anything wrong, and they thought they had found the right buyer, only to have the carpet ripped out from under them at the last minute. So, how can you protect yourself when selling your home?
This situation highlights the importance of contingencies. Contingencies exist to protect buyers and sellers from the unknowns of a real estate transaction. Buyers will typically include contingencies in their offer to specify the criteria that will allow them to walk away from the deal unscathed and the timeframes for doing so. As a seller, it’s critical that you work closely with your agent to understand the terms of the buyer’s offer. Read about Common Real Estate Contingencies to understand the ins and out of the different contingencies buyers will generally tie to their offer.
What to Do After a Home Buyer Backs Out
Backup Offers
Backup offers are made with the knowledge that an existing offer is already on the table. They stipulate that if the first offer falls through, the second buyer’s offer is accepted. Talk to your agent about the possibility of accepting backup offers when you sell your home. Whether a buyer backs out due to buyer’s remorse, something they discover in the home inspection process, or for any other reason, backup offers can act as a remedy for their indecision by keeping the line moving to the next buyer.
If a backup offer isn’t on the table, the seller is left with the decision of whether to sell again. It’s true that a relisted home may elicit questions from buyers. They will want to know why the home is being relisted and what went wrong with the previous offer. It’s important to coordinate your relisting strategy with your agent and discuss what disclosures are appropriate. It may be discouraging to deal with a buyer backing out but remember that selling a home is all about finding the right fit. A buyer walking away doesn’t mean your home isn’t worthy of a winning offer, it just means that you haven’t found the right buyer yet.
Urban farming can be a fun way to produce your own nutritious and sustainable food supply for your household while learning about self-sufficiency and gardening. Though urban farming likely won’t replace your household’s entire food intake, it is an environmentally friendly complement that can help lower your reliance upon commercial grocery stores over time.
A Quick Guide to Urban Farming
What is urban farming?
Urban farming or urban agriculture comes in many forms. Whether it’s a backyard or rooftop garden, a community agricultural space, or a small balcony plot, urban farming is the practice of cultivating food by those who live in cities or densely populated areas. Typically using raised garden beds to house produce, urban farming promotes sustainability, health, and a connection to nature. Whether you’re looking to grow a few simple fruits and vegetables or seek to cultivate a flourishing garden, here’s how you can get started.
Plot Out Your Garden
Whether you have a spacious backyard waiting to be tilled into gardening heaven or a smaller, unused section of your flower beds, how much space you’re working with will determine the arrangement of your urban farm. Research the crops you intend to plant and how much space they require, then take measurements in your gardening space before buying materials. Your raised gardening beds should be anywhere from six to thirty-six inches deep. Keeping them less than four feet wide will make it easier to reach across when watering, weeding, and planting.
Planting Your Garden
Once you’ve plotted out your garden space, there are a series of decisions to make about your garden; namely which crops you want to grow, how you’ll pot other plants and flowers, whether you’re going to start from seeds or seedlings, and deciding between manual and automatic watering. If you’re starting from seeds, know that the growing process will take longer, whereas seedlings can help to speed things up. Creating an automatic watering system requires an upfront investment, but you’ll save time, and you won’t have worry about under-watering or dehydrating your garden.
Keeping animals on your property presents new opportunities for sustenance, but it also introduces new challenges. Two animals urban farmers often choose to raise are chickens and bees, which take up a lot less space that other livestock. Before starting either venture, check your local zoning laws.
If you intend to raise chickens, you’ll need to build a coop first. The size of your chicken coop will depend on whether your chickens are able to forage outside the coop or not. If you have the space to let the chickens out, allow two to three square feet per bird in the coop. If the chickens must stay in the coop, you’ll want to make sure they have plenty of space, so it’s recommended to allow five to ten square feet per bird.
The key features of a chicken coop include roosts, nest boxes, dust baths, lighting, and protection from local predators. Search online or locally for pre-made chicken coops that fit your property’s needs or make it a DIY project. A commercial poultry feed will provide your chickens with the basic nutrients they need, but keep in mind that many foods outside of their normal diet can alter egg flavor and have adverse health effects. So, if you’re thinking about incorporating table scraps into their diet, make sure those foods agree with their systems before doing so.
To keep bees at home, start by reaching out to local beekeeping associations to inquire about purchasing bees and when you can expect your colony to arrive. Once you have a timeline set, you can go about gathering supplies. There are two common hive systems used for keeping bees: a Langstroth hive; which is a system of stacked rectangular boxes with removable frames, and a top-bar hive; which is a series of horizontally connected boxes. Gear up by purchasing protective beekeeping clothing, tools, and feeding supplies. After you introduce your bees to their new hive, continually monitor their behavior and tend to their seasonal needs. Spring is generally the best time of year to start a hive, since it gives bees plenty of time to build up their colony and produce and store honey before winter arrives.
The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.
Regional Economic Overview
The post-COVID job recovery continues. Though data showed the number of jobs dropped in January, February saw gains that almost offset the jobs lost the prior month. As of February (March data is not yet available), the region had recovered all but 47,000 of the more than 300,000 jobs lost due to the pandemic. Of note is that employment levels in Grays Harbor, Thurston, San Juan, and Clallam counties are now above their pre-pandemic levels. In February, the regional unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 3.7% in December. Although this may be disconcerting, an improving economy has led more unemployed persons to start looking for a job, which has pushed the jobless rate higher. I expect the regional economy to continue expanding as we move into the spring and summer, with a full job recovery not far away.
Western Washington Home Sales
❱ In the first quarter of 2022, 15,134 homes sold, representing a drop of 5.8% from the same period a year ago, and down 31.7% from the fourth quarter.
❱ Yet again, supply-side constraints limited sales. Every county except Snohomish showed lower inventory levels than a year ago.
❱ Sales grew in five counties across the region but were lower across the balance of the counties contained in this report. Compared to the fourth quarter, sales were lower across all market areas.
❱ The ratio of pending sales (demand) to active listings (supply) showed pending sales outpacing listings by a factor of 6.7. Clearly, the significant jump in mortgage rates in the first quarter has not yet impacted demand. Rather it appears to have stimulated buyers partly due to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)!
Western Washington Home Prices
❱ Although financing costs have jumped, this has yet to prove to be an obstacle to buyers, as prices rose 16.4% year-over-year to an average of $738,152. Naturally, there is a lag between rates rising and any impact on market prices. It will be interesting to see what, if any, effect this has in the next quarter’s report.
❱ Compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was again strongest in San Juan County, but all markets saw prices rising more than 10% from a year ago.
❱ Relative to the final quarter of 2021, all but Kitsap (-2.7%), Mason (-1.5%), Skagit (-1.8%), Jefferson (-6.3%), and Clallam (-0.1%) counties saw home prices rise.
❱ The market remains supply starved. While increases in “new” listings suggest that more choice is coming to market, it remains insufficient to meet demand.
Mortgage Rates
Average rates for a 30-year conforming mortgage were 3.11% at the end of 2021, but since then have jumped over 1.5%—the largest increase since 1987. The surge in rates is because the market is anticipating a seven- to eight-point increase from the Federal Reserve later this year.
Because the mortgage market has priced this into the rates they are offering today, my forecast suggests that we are getting close to a ceiling in rates, and it is my belief that they will rise modestly in the second quarter before stabilizing for the balance of the year.
Western Washington Days on Market
❱ It took an average of 25 days for a home to go pending in the first quarter of 2022. This was 4 fewer days than in the same quarter of 2020, but 2 days more than in the fourth quarter of 2021.
❱ Snohomish, King, and Pierce counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 11 to 15 days to sell. The greatest drop in market time compared to a year ago was in San Juan County, where it took 23 fewer days for homes to sell.
❱ All but five counties saw average time on market drop from the same period a year ago, but the markets where it took longer to sell a home saw the length of time increase only marginally.
❱ Quarter over quarter, market time dropped in Snohomish, King, and Pierce counties. Jefferson and Clallam counties also saw modest improvement. In the balance of the region the length of time a home was on the market rose, but seasonality undoubtedly played a part.
Conclusions
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
The numbers have yet to indicate that demand is waning amid rising interest rates, but this is sure to become a greater factor as we move into the spring. A leading indicator I pay attention to is changes to list prices and, in most counties, these continue to increase. This suggests that sellers remain confident they will be able to find a buyer even in the face of higher borrowing costs. If this pace of increase starts to soften, it may be an indication of an inflection point, but it does not appear to be that way yet.
Given all the factors discussed above, I have decided to leave the needle in the same position as the last quarter. The market still heavily favors sellers, but if rates rise much further, headwinds will likely increase.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. With home prices continuing to defy gravity, mortgage rates spiking, the Fed raising interest rates significantly, a yield curve that is just keeping its nose above water, and some becoming vocal about the possibility that we are going to enter a recession sooner rather than later, it’s not at all surprising that many of you have been asking me whether the housing market is going to pull back significantly, and a few of you have asked whether we aren’t in some sort of “bubble” again.
Because this topic appears to be giving many of you heartburn, I decided that it’s a good time to reflect on where the housing market is today and give you my thoughts on the impact of rising mortgage rates on what has been an historically hot market.
The Current State of the U.S. Housing Market
Home Sale Prices
As usual, a little perspective. Between 1990 and the pre-bubble peak in 2006, home prices rose by 142%, which was a pretty impressive annual increase of 5.6% over a 16 1/2-year period. When the market crashed, prices dropped by 33%, but from the 2012 low to today, prices have risen by 131%, or at an even faster annual rate of 8.6% over a shorter period of time—10 years.
You may think that prices rising at an annual rate that exceeds the pace seen before the market crash is what has some brokers and home buyers concerned, but that really isn’t what has many people scared. It’s this.
Mortgage Rates in 2022
At the start of 2022, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was just a little above 3%. But, over a brief 15-week period, they have skyrocketed to 5%. This has led some to worry that the market is about to implode. Of course, nobody can say that the run-up in home prices hasn’t been phenomenal over the past few years, and it’s certainly human nature to think that “what goes up, must come down,” but is there really any reason to panic? I think not, and to explain my reasoning, let’s look back in time to periods when rates rose significantly and see how increasing mortgage rates impacted the marketplace.
Housing and Mortgage Markets During Times of Rising Rates
This table shows seven periods over the past 30 years when mortgage rates rose significantly. On average, rates trended higher for just over a year before pulling back, and the average increase was 1.4%. But now look at how it impacted home prices: it really didn’t. On average, during these periods of rising financing costs, home prices still rose by just over 5%. Clearly, not what some might have expected. But there were some negatives from mortgage rates trending higher, and these came in the form of lower sales in all but one period and new housing starts also pulled back.
So, if history is any indicator, the impact of the current jump in mortgage rates is likely to be seen in the form of lower transactions rather than lower prices. And this makes sense. Although rising financing costs puts additional pressure on housing affordability, what people don’t appear to think about is that mortgage rates actually tend to rise during periods of economic prosperity. And what does a flourishing economy bring? That’s right. Rising wages. Increasing incomes can certainly offset at least some of the impacts of rising mortgage rates.
Static Equilibrium Analysis – 1/3
To try and explain this, I’m using the median US sale price in February of this year, assuming a 20% down payment and the mortgage rate of 4%. And you can see that the monthly P&I payment would be $1,365. But as mortgage rates rise, and if buyers wanted to keep the same monthly payment, then they would have to buy a cheaper home. Using a rate of 5%, a buyer could afford a home that was 9% cheaper if they wanted to keep the payment the same as it would have been if rates were still at 4%.
But, as I mentioned earlier, an expanding economy brings higher wages, and this is being felt today more than usual, given the worker shortage that exists and businesses having to raise compensation. Average weekly wages have risen by over five-and-a-half percent over the past year—well above the pre-pandemic average of two-and-a-half percent. Although increasing incomes would not totally offset rising mortgage rates, it does have an impact.
Static Equilibrium Analysis – 2/3
To demonstrate this, let’s use the U.S. average household income of $70,611. Assuming that they’ve put aside 20% of their gross income for a down payment, they could afford a home priced just under $360,000 if mortgage rates were at 4%. As rates rise—and assuming that their income doesn’t—their buying power is reduced by over 10%, or just over $38,000.
Static Equilibrium Analysis – 3/3
But if we believe that incomes will rise, then the picture looks very different. Assuming wages rise by 6%, their buying power drops by just 5% if rates rose from 4% to 5%, or a bit less than $19,000.
Although rates have risen dramatically in a short period, because they started from an historic low, the overall impacts are not yet very significant. If history is any indicator, mortgage rates increasing are likely to have a more significant impact on sales, but a far smaller impact on prices.
But there are other factors that come into play, too. Here I’m talking about demand. The only time since 1968 that home prices have dropped on an annualized basis was in 2007 through 2009 and in 2011, and this was due to a massive increase in the supply of homes for sale. When supply exceeds demand, prices drop.
So, how is it different this time around? Well, we know that the supply glut that we saw starting to build in mid-2006 was mainly not just because households were getting mortgages that, quite frankly, they should never have gotten in the first place, but a very large share held adjustable rate mortgages which, when the fixed interest rate floated, they found themselves faced with payments that they could not afford. Many homeowners either listed their homes for sale or simply walked away.
Although it’s true that over the past two or so months more buyers have started taking ARMs as rates rose, it’s not only a far smaller share than we saw before the bubble burst, but down payments and credit quality remained far higher than we saw back then.
So, if we aren’t faced with a surge of inventory, I simply don’t see any reason why the market will see prices pull back significantly. But even if we do see listing activity increase, I still anticipate that there will be more than enough demand from would-be buyers. I say this for several reasons, the first of which is inflation.
What a lot of people aren’t talking about is the proven fact that owning real estate is a significant hedge against rising inflation. You see, most buyers have a mortgage, and a vast majority use fixed-rate financing. This is the hedge because even as consumer prices are rising, a homeowner’s monthly payments aren’t. They remain static and, more than that, their monthly payments actually become lower over time as the value of the dollar diminishes. Simply put, the value of a dollar in—let’s say 2025—will be lower than the value of a dollar today.
But this isn’t the only reason that inflation can actually stimulate the housing market. Home prices historically have grown at a faster pace than inflation.
Hedge Against Inflation
This chart looks at the annual change in total CPI going back to 1969. Now let’s overlay the annual change in median U.S. home prices over the same time period. Other than when home prices crashed with the bursting of the housing bubble, for more than fifty years home price growth has outpaced inflation. And this means we are offsetting high consumer prices because home values are increasing at an even faster rate.
But inflation has additional impacts on buyers. Now I’m talking about savings. As we all know, the interest paid on savings today is pretty abysmal. In fact, the best money market accounts I could find were offering interest rates between 0.5% and 0.7%. And given that this is significantly below the rate of inflation, it means that dollars saved continue to be worth less and less over time while inflation remains hot.
Now, rather than watching their money drop in value because of rising prices, it’s natural that households would look to put their cash to work by investing in assets where the return is above the rate of inflation—meaning that their money is no longer losing value—and where better place to put it than into a home.
Housing as a Hedge Against Inflation
So, the bottom line here is that inflation supports demand from home buyers because:
Most are borrowing at a fixed rate that will not be impacted by rising inflation
Monthly payments are fixed, and these payments going forward become lower as incomes rise, unlike renters out there who continue to see their monthly housing costs increase
With inflation at a level not seen since the early 1980s, borrowers facing 5% mortgage rates are still getting an amazing deal. In fact, by my calculations, mortgage rates would have to break above 7% to significantly slow demand, which I find highly unlikely, and
If history holds true, home price appreciation will continue to outpace inflation
Demand appears to still be robust, and supply remains anemic. Although off the all-time low inventory levels we saw in January, the number of homes for sale in March was the lowest of any March since record keeping began in the early 1980’s.
But even though I’m not worried about the impact of rates rising on the market in general, I do worry about first-time buyers. These are households who have never seen mortgage rates above 5% and they just don’t know how to deal with it! Remember that the last time the 30-year fixed averaged more than 5% for a month was back in March of 2010!
And given the fact that these young would-be home buyers have not benefited from rising home prices as existing homeowners have, as well as the fact that they are faced with soaring rents, making it harder for them to save up for a down payment on their first home, many are in a rather tight spot and it’s likely that rising rates will lower their share of the market.
So, the bottom line as far as I am concerned is that mortgage rates normalizing should not lead you to feel any sort of panic, and that current rates are highly unlikely to be the cause of a market correction.
And I will leave you with this one thought. If you agree with me that a systemic drop in home prices has to be caused by a significant increase in supply, and that buyers who are currently taking out adjustable-rate mortgages are more qualified, and therefore able to manage to refinance their homes when rates do revert at some point in the future, then what will cause listings to rise to a point that can negatively impact prices?
It’s true that a significant increase in new home development might cause this, but that is unlikely. And as far as existing owners are concerned, I worry far more about a prolonged lack of inventory. I say this for one very simple reason and that is because a vast majority off homeowners either purchased when mortgage rates were at or near their historic lows, or they refinanced their current homes when rates dropped.
And this could be the biggest problem for the market. Even if rates don’t rise at all from current levels, I question how many owners would think about selling if they were to lose the historically low mortgage rates that they have locked into. It is quite possible that for this one reason, we may experience a tight housing market for several more years.
In honor of Windermere’s 50th anniversary, the Windermere Foundation has set a goal to reach $50 million in total donations raised by the end of 2022. At the end of last year, the Foundation surpassed $46 million in total donations, leaving a nearly $4 million gap to eclipse the $50 million mark. Through the fundraising efforts of offices across the Windermere footprint, 2022 is off to a strong start. Here are a few highlights from early 2022.
Windermere Northern Colorado
Windermere Northern Colorado has burst out the gate this year, organizing multiple fundraising events and supporting multiple local organizations throughout the early months of 2022. ChildSafe, based in Fort Collins, CO, provides children with responsive treatment, education, and recovery from child abuse. The Windermere office has supported ChildSafe in the past and wanted to continue to do so in 2022, donating $10,000 to them in February to help heal the trauma experienced by local victims of child abuse. In March, the office directed its giving efforts to the Weld County School District, with the goal of helping local children and families struggling with homelessness. Windermere Northern Colorado’s donation of $5,000 allowed the school district to purchase grocery gift cards for local families and students in need.
Pictured left to right: Weld RE-4 School District Director of Exceptional Student Services JonPaul Burden, Meaghan Nicholl, Elizabeth Dolton.
Windermere Utah
For the agents, owners, and staff at Windermere Utah, The Make-A-Wish Foundation has a special place in their hearts. Supporting children in need in their community has been a focal point of the office’s giving over the years, so when looking to kickstart their 2022 giving, Make-A-Wish was a natural fit. The office donated $5,000, which will go toward the organization’s ability to grant another child’s wish.
Windermere Coast Offices (Oregon)
The Windermere Coast Offices of Gearhart and Cannon Beach have made it a point to support the aspirations and success of women in their community. They’ve been loyal supporters of the Astoria, OR branch of the American Association of University Women (AAUW) since learning about the organization years ago. AAUW provides scholarships for women who may not otherwise have the resources to pursue and succeed in their educational and vocational goals.
To successfully sell your home, you need to attract buyers. This is why open houses are an integral part of the selling process: they allow buyers to experience the property for themselves and envision what life will look like in their new home. To prepare for an open house, you’ll need to work closely with your agent. They can advise you on what buyers in your area are looking for to increase your chances of selling your home.
How to Prepare for an Open House
The earlier you can begin prepping your home for an open house, the better, since getting it in prime showing condition will take time. Start by decluttering and organizing room by room. To truly get your home sparkling clean, you can’t miss those hard-to-reach areas like the baseboards, under your furniture, and your appliances.
To best position your home to sell, consider hiring a professional stager. A well-staged home helps it appeal to the widest possible array of potential buyers, not only for in-person showings, but in online photos as well. Professional staging is equal parts science and art. Stagers are experts in depersonalizing a home while maintaining its stylistic qualities to give buyers the opportunity to imagine the space for their own use. It isn’t just about psychology, though. Staging is a high-ROI expenditure that can add real value to your home.
It may feel counterintuitive, but your absence can be your greatest asset in making your open houses successful. Buyers will often feel uneasy in the presence of the seller as they tour, which will limit their ability to envision their own lives in the home and get excited about the prospect of ownership. Accordingly, you may need to arrange for temporary accommodations during the times your home is being shown. It’s helpful to solidify these plans several weeks in advance to avoid an eleventh-hour scramble.
Working with Your Agent
Your agent will be your greatest asset in preparing for open houses. They are experts in understanding how to effectively market your home and how the local market conditions will impact their marketing plan. Once you know it’s time to sell, they’ll analyze data to accurately price the property and keep it competitive in the current market. They’ll also work with you to schedule open houses at the times when buyers are maximally available and actively searching for listings.
Your agent will also help you to stay safe while selling your home. The reality of open houses is that you’re opening your doors to an influx of unfamiliar faces, and it’s worth it to take a few safety precautions beforehand. Perform a thorough walkthrough of your home with your agent to make sure all valuable belongings, medications, family heirlooms, and other important items have been properly secured and/or removed. Once you’ve given your home a clean sweep, discuss your process for screening potential buyers.
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s chief economist, Matthew Gardner, and welcome to the latest episode of Mondays with Matthew. This month we’re going to take a look at Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies themselves and how both may impact home buyers and sellers in the future.
But before we dive into the potential impacts of cryptocurrency on the residential housing market, I must preface this by saying that the very word “crypto” is one that certainly divides people. Some see it as revolutionary, a tangible asset that will take over one day as the de-facto global currency, while others believe it to be unsustainable and ultimately valueless. And there are even some who firmly believe that it’s nothing more than a Ponzi scheme.
Now, everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion, and I will refrain from offering my own view on the currencies themselves, but, although still in its infancy, it continues to evolve and is garnering significant interest from individuals and large corporations alike.
Why are corporations interested, you ask? Well, a recent report from Crypto.com1 put the number of people around the globe who own some form of cryptocurrency at more than 295 million and they are forecasting this number to explode this year and hit the 1 billion mark! And the value of all these currencies today? As of March 14, the combined value of all cryptocurrencies was 1.74 trillion dollars2 with the largest, Bitcoin, valued at almost 740 billion dollars. So, it should not be a surprise to see many mainstream companies across multiple industry sectors start to introduce ways to accept crypto as payment for goods and services.
Companies moving into this space include AMC movie Theaters3 who recently announced their plan to accept coins by the end of this year. Fintech companies like Paypal and Square are also betting on crypto by allowing users to buy currency on their platforms. And, unsurprising to most, Tesla is also interested, but have yet to confirm whether they will accept coins as payment for their vehicles or not.
With cryptocurrencies now gaining traction in mainstream businesses, the housing sector has started to take an interest too with the emergence of companies like Propy, whose goal is to totally automate the home sales process by introducing Blockchain based technology to allow transactions to occur entirely online using smart contracts. Other companies are figuring out how to use blockchain technology to grow the “fractional-ownership” segment of the housing market.
But when it comes to simply buying a house—well that is an entirely different situation. Of course, a home buyer could easily cash out the Crypto they have and use those funds for a down payment, or even to buy a house outright. But we don’t see more of this today as they understand selling their currency is a taxable event and, more than likely, taxes owed will hit their balance sheets pretty hard. And knowing that this is a real issue in the market, it should come as no surprise that a company has come up with a plan to overcome what is seen as one of the biggest obstacles to using digital currency for home buying.
Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrencies in Real Estate
And they are Milo, who claim to offer the world’s first “crypto-mortgage”. Essentially, they will allow borrowers to use Bitcoin—but only Bitcoin as of right now—as collateral for a 30-year mortgage.
How this works is pretty simple. All buyers have to do is to “pledge” their coins on a one-for-one basis. Simply put, someone looking for a $500,000 mortgage would have to put up $500,000 worth of Bitcoin. This way, they don’t actually have to sell their coins, so there are no tax implications. And instead of going through a FICO credit check and showing proof of income to evaluate a borrower’s creditworthiness, Milo evaluates them based on their crypto wealth as well as the value of the property they are hoping to buy.
And in exchange for locking up their crypto, borrowers get a 30-year mortgage for their home purchase can also make their mortgage payments via traditional currency or Bitcoin. But there are differences between this and a traditional mortgage. First off is the interest rate. It currently ranges anywhere from 5 to 8% depending on the loan-to-value ratio. This is higher than the rate they could get today.
And the interest rate is not fixed, but variable, and based on the prevailing price of Bitcoin. The rate can go up or down depending on the value of the Bitcoin they have pledged, and this mortgage rate will be adjusted every year. Interestingly, if the price of Bitcoin goes up, borrowers can actually take back some of their crypto once a year. If the price of Bitcoin goes down, they may be asked to provide more crypto as collateral.
And finally, when the buyer sells, on closing Milo is paid back in U.S. dollars, and then the seller gets the Bitcoins they used for collateral back, along with the profit made on the sale.
I think that this is certainly an interesting play in the ownership housing sector and, although still in its infancy, looks to meet the needs of crypto owners who don’t want to face the tax obligation that would occur if they were to sell their coins to buy a home. Now, I must make clear that Windermere is certainly not endorsing Milo. In fact, I personally have concerns about the program given how volatile cryptocurrencies are.
You see, it is possible that users may be caught out by the value of their Bitcoin dropping significantly and, if this occurs at or around their anniversary date, it could significantly raise the interest rate—and therefore the monthly payment—on that loan, and if the price drops too far, then they may have to go through what is, in essence, a margin call, where they will have to submit more funds to the lender to bring them back to a point where equity in the home combined with the value of the Bitcoin covers the loan itself.
And I would add that if for some reason the buyer has to sell the home within the first three years4 of purchase there are pre-payment penalties that will be incurred. All in all, it is an interesting model, but it is still in its infancy. As always, time will tell how well it gets adopted.
The bottom line for me is that the likelihood of Cryptocurrency revolutionizing the way we buy homes from a finance perspective is still several years away, but after that, who knows! Something that does have the capacity to be adopted into the mainstream far quicker is the blockchain technology itself. I personally see title insurance as a segment that could benefit significantly and may well adopt this tech sooner than others.
With title insurance companies responsible for verifying and ensuring that a buyer or lender (depending on the type of title insurance) gets either clean ownership or a lien position in the land in question, Blockchain could change many aspects of how these processes are carried out. Here are some of the benefits:
The Potential Benefits of Blockchain Technology in Real Estate
Security. More than 25 percent of title reports (alta.org) detail some form of defect to the title itself, but the ability of blockchain to immediately detect erroneous or potentially fraudulent information can significantly help to support the reliability of the records, therefore making the job of title insurance companies much more straightforward.
And then there’s smart contracts, which are actually a form of e-closing that is already beginning to be embraced by some in the industry. This technology makes the transfer of ownership almost seamless. Literally, it would take just a few clicks of a mouse. And this is also a massive benefit for the industry as the closing process would also change dramatically and become far more effortless and less time consuming than today’s standard means of closing on a home purchase.
And finally, record-keeping. While fraud and tampering are huge concerns for title companies, blockchain could all but eliminate these instances within ownership records. And, as it would convert land records to a distributed ledger, it cannot be altered within the blockchain itself, therefore making it safe in perpetuity. Blockchain, by design, prevents bad information from disrupting the chain and any attempt to tamper with it can be easily detected and therefore avoided. This is a massive upgrade from the county ledger that title insurance companies find themselves working with today.
No one can deny that Blockchain and cryptocurrencies, while still relatively new, do not appear to be just a flash in the pan. As we have discussed today, a number of companies continue to make inroads into the real estate world. Will some fail? Of course. But others will succeed. So, while still in its infancy, we should all have some sort of understanding of its potential to be a disruptor in the housing space in the future.
It’s my own personal belief that the Blockchain tech itself will be the thing that gets adopted by the real estate world faster than the rise of crypto as a way to buy or finance a home but, whatever your thoughts on this topic are, I think that it is highly unlikely that we will see it simply fade away over time.
As always, if you have any questions or comments about this particular topic, please do reach out to me but, in the meantime, stay safe out there and I look forward to visiting with you all again next month. Bye now.
Soaring prices and low inventory mean competition among King County buyers is fierce. Multiple offers are the norm, with most homes closing well over asking. Find our full market recap here.
News + trends.
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Condo sales reflect market intensity
While single-family home prices have been skyrocketing across the region, condos have been experiencing a boom of their own. The W Report reached out to local real estate leaders to find out why. READ MORE
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Bellevue nonprofit builds affordable housing in the area
A new development on the Eastside aims to address housing issues by building up to 235 new affordable units.
Who doesn’t love the drama of a spiral staircase? Whether you’re winding your way up to a secret hideaway or simply enjoying the swirling architecture, there’s something for everyone on this Pinterest board.
Listing From My Office.
$5,480,000
CLYDE HILL 2260 95th Ave NE, Clyde Hill 5 Beds / 5.5 Bath / 5,678 SF
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