Market News • Matthew Gardner • April 28, 2022

The Current State of the U.S. Housing Market

by Phillipa Leseberg

Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. With home prices continuing to defy gravity, mortgage rates spiking, the Fed raising interest rates significantly, a yield curve that is just keeping its nose above water, and some becoming vocal about the possibility that we are going to enter a recession sooner rather than later, it’s not at all surprising that many of you have been asking me whether the housing market is going to pull back significantly, and a few of you have asked whether we aren’t in some sort of “bubble” again.

Because this topic appears to be giving many of you heartburn, I decided that it’s a good time to reflect on where the housing market is today and give you my thoughts on the impact of rising mortgage rates on what has been an historically hot market.

The Current State of the U.S. Housing Market

Home Sale Prices

A slide titled "Home Sale Prices" showing the U.S. media home sale prices from 1990 to 2022. From 1990 to 2006, there was a positive 142% change. From 2006 to 2012, there was a negative 33% change. And from 2012 to 2022, there has been a positive 1315 change, with the most recent U.S. median sale price shown at $357,300.

As usual, a little perspective. Between 1990 and the pre-bubble peak in 2006, home prices rose by 142%, which was a pretty impressive annual increase of 5.6% over a 16 1/2-year period. When the market crashed, prices dropped by 33%, but from the 2012 low to today, prices have risen by 131%, or at an even faster annual rate of 8.6% over a shorter period of time—10 years.

You may think that prices rising at an annual rate that exceeds the pace seen before the market crash is what has some brokers and home buyers concerned, but that really isn’t what has many people scared. It’s this.

Mortgage Rates in 2022

A slide titled "Mortgage Rates in 2022" showing the increase in 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rates between December 30, 2021 (3.11%) and April 14, 2022 (5%).

At the start of 2022, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was just a little above 3%. But, over a brief 15-week period, they have skyrocketed to 5%. This has led some to worry that the market is about to implode. Of course, nobody can say that the run-up in home prices hasn’t been phenomenal over the past few years, and it’s certainly human nature to think that “what goes up, must come down,” but is there really any reason to panic? I think not, and to explain my reasoning, let’s look back in time to periods when rates rose significantly and see how increasing mortgage rates impacted the marketplace.

Housing and Mortgage Markets During Times of Rising Rates

A slide titled "Housing & Mortgage Markets During Times of Rising Rates." Two extreme statistics are as follow: Between June 2005 and July 2006 there was a negative 32.3% change in housing starts and between October 1993 and December 1994 there was a negative 12.7% change in home sales.

This table shows seven periods over the past 30 years when mortgage rates rose significantly. On average, rates trended higher for just over a year before pulling back, and the average increase was 1.4%. But now look at how it impacted home prices: it really didn’t. On average, during these periods of rising financing costs, home prices still rose by just over 5%. Clearly, not what some might have expected. But there were some negatives from mortgage rates trending higher, and these came in the form of lower sales in all but one period and new housing starts also pulled back.

So, if history is any indicator, the impact of the current jump in mortgage rates is likely to be seen in the form of lower transactions rather than lower prices. And this makes sense. Although rising financing costs puts additional pressure on housing affordability, what people don’t appear to think about is that mortgage rates actually tend to rise during periods of economic prosperity. And what does a flourishing economy bring? That’s right. Rising wages. Increasing incomes can certainly offset at least some of the impacts of rising mortgage rates.

Static Equilibrium Analysis – 1/3

A slide titled "Static Equilibrium Analysis" showing that the P&I payment would be $1,365 for a $357,300 home with a 4% mortgage rate, using the February 2022 U.S. median sale price. This assumes the buyer has put down 20% on the home.

To try and explain this, I’m using the median US sale price in February of this year, assuming a 20% down payment and the mortgage rate of 4%. And you can see that the monthly P&I payment would be $1,365. But as mortgage rates rise, and if buyers wanted to keep the same monthly payment, then they would have to buy a cheaper home. Using a rate of 5%, a buyer could afford a home that was 9% cheaper if they wanted to keep the payment the same as it would have been if rates were still at 4%.

But, as I mentioned earlier, an expanding economy brings higher wages, and this is being felt today more than usual, given the worker shortage that exists and businesses having to raise compensation. Average weekly wages have risen by over five-and-a-half percent over the past year—well above the pre-pandemic average of two-and-a-half percent. Although increasing incomes would not totally offset rising mortgage rates, it does have an impact.

Static Equilibrium Analysis – 2/3

A slide titled "Static Equilibrium Analysis" showing what home buyers would be able to afford at different mortgage rates, using the U.S. average household income of $70,611, assuming they've put 20% of their gross income down for the down payment. At 4%, they could afford a home just under $360,000 and at 5%, they could afford a home at $321,038.

To demonstrate this, let’s use the U.S. average household income of $70,611. Assuming that they’ve put aside 20% of their gross income for a down payment, they could afford a home priced just under $360,000 if mortgage rates were at 4%. As rates rise—and assuming that their income doesn’t—their buying power is reduced by over 10%, or just over $38,000.

Static Equilibrium Analysis – 3/3

A follow up to the "Static Equilibrium Analysis" slide showing that if the average income were raised to $74,848, the buyer would be able to afford a home of $340,302 at a 5% mortgage rate.

But if we believe that incomes will rise, then the picture looks very different. Assuming wages rise by 6%, their buying power drops by just 5% if rates rose from 4% to 5%, or a bit less than $19,000.

Although rates have risen dramatically in a short period, because they started from an historic low, the overall impacts are not yet very significant. If history is any indicator, mortgage rates increasing are likely to have a more significant impact on sales, but a far smaller impact on prices.

But there are other factors that come into play, too. Here I’m talking about demand. The only time since 1968 that home prices have dropped on an annualized basis was in 2007 through 2009 and in 2011, and this was due to a massive increase in the supply of homes for sale. When supply exceeds demand, prices drop.

So, how is it different this time around? Well, we know that the supply glut that we saw starting to build in mid-2006 was mainly not just because households were getting mortgages that, quite frankly, they should never have gotten in the first place, but a very large share held adjustable rate mortgages which, when the fixed interest rate floated, they found themselves faced with payments that they could not afford. Many homeowners either listed their homes for sale or simply walked away.

Although it’s true that over the past two or so months more buyers have started taking ARMs as rates rose, it’s not only a far smaller share than we saw before the bubble burst, but down payments and credit quality remained far higher than we saw back then.

So, if we aren’t faced with a surge of inventory, I simply don’t see any reason why the market will see prices pull back significantly. But even if we do see listing activity increase, I still anticipate that there will be more than enough demand from would-be buyers. I say this for several reasons, the first of which is inflation.

What a lot of people aren’t talking about is the proven fact that owning real estate is a significant hedge against rising inflation. You see, most buyers have a mortgage, and a vast majority use fixed-rate financing. This is the hedge because even as consumer prices are rising, a homeowner’s monthly payments aren’t. They remain static and, more than that, their monthly payments actually become lower over time as the value of the dollar diminishes. Simply put, the value of a dollar in—let’s say 2025—will be lower than the value of a dollar today.

But this isn’t the only reason that inflation can actually stimulate the housing market. Home prices historically have grown at a faster pace than inflation.

Hedge Against Inflation

A slide titled "Hedge Against Inflation" showing a line graph of the average annual inflation and change in median home price from 1969 to 2021. While the average annual inflation fluctuates between 1% and 5% for most of the chart except for the mid-70s and early-80s, the change in median home price fluctuates between 25% in the late-70s to roughly negative 12% in 2009.

This chart looks at the annual change in total CPI going back to 1969. Now let’s overlay the annual change in median U.S. home prices over the same time period. Other than when home prices crashed with the bursting of the housing bubble, for more than fifty years home price growth has outpaced inflation. And this means we are offsetting high consumer prices because home values are increasing at an even faster rate.

But inflation has additional impacts on buyers. Now I’m talking about savings. As we all know, the interest paid on savings today is pretty abysmal. In fact, the best money market accounts I could find were offering interest rates between 0.5% and 0.7%. And given that this is significantly below the rate of inflation, it means that dollars saved continue to be worth less and less over time while inflation remains hot.

Now, rather than watching their money drop in value because of rising prices, it’s natural that households would look to put their cash to work by investing in assets where the return is above the rate of inflation—meaning that their money is no longer losing value—and where better place to put it than into a home.

Housing as a Hedge Against Inflation

A slide titled "Housing as a Hedge Against Inflation" showing that most home buyers finance their purchase at a fixed-rate of interest, which is not susceptible to inflation. Mortgage payments are fixed, therefore as incomes rise, the payments actually become cheaper.

So, the bottom line here is that inflation supports demand from home buyers because:

Most are borrowing at a fixed rate that will not be impacted by rising inflation
Monthly payments are fixed, and these payments going forward become lower as incomes rise, unlike renters out there who continue to see their monthly housing costs increase
With inflation at a level not seen since the early 1980s, borrowers facing 5% mortgage rates are still getting an amazing deal. In fact, by my calculations, mortgage rates would have to break above 7% to significantly slow demand, which I find highly unlikely, and
If history holds true, home price appreciation will continue to outpace inflation

Demand appears to still be robust, and supply remains anemic. Although off the all-time low inventory levels we saw in January, the number of homes for sale in March was the lowest of any March since record keeping began in the early 1980’s.

But even though I’m not worried about the impact of rates rising on the market in general, I do worry about first-time buyers. These are households who have never seen mortgage rates above 5% and they just don’t know how to deal with it! Remember that the last time the 30-year fixed averaged more than 5% for a month was back in March of 2010!

And given the fact that these young would-be home buyers have not benefited from rising home prices as existing homeowners have, as well as the fact that they are faced with soaring rents, making it harder for them to save up for a down payment on their first home, many are in a rather tight spot and it’s likely that rising rates will lower their share of the market.

So, the bottom line as far as I am concerned is that mortgage rates normalizing should not lead you to feel any sort of panic, and that current rates are highly unlikely to be the cause of a market correction.

And I will leave you with this one thought. If you agree with me that a systemic drop in home prices has to be caused by a significant increase in supply, and that buyers who are currently taking out adjustable-rate mortgages are more qualified, and therefore able to manage to refinance their homes when rates do revert at some point in the future, then what will cause listings to rise to a point that can negatively impact prices?

It’s true that a significant increase in new home development might cause this, but that is unlikely. And as far as existing owners are concerned, I worry far more about a prolonged lack of inventory. I say this for one very simple reason and that is because a vast majority off homeowners either purchased when mortgage rates were at or near their historic lows, or they refinanced their current homes when rates dropped.

And this could be the biggest problem for the market. Even if rates don’t rise at all from current levels, I question how many owners would think about selling if they were to lose the historically low mortgage rates that they have locked into. It is quite possible that for this one reason, we may experience a tight housing market for several more years.

Windermere Community • April 25, 2022

Windermere Foundation Sets Sights on $50 Million in Total Donations

by Phillipa Leseberg

Two women and a man hold up a check for $5,000.

In honor of Windermere’s 50^th anniversary, the Windermere Foundation has set a goal to reach $50 million in total donations raised by the end of 2022. At the end of last year, the Foundation surpassed $46 million in total donations, leaving a nearly $4 million gap to eclipse the $50 million mark. Through the fundraising efforts of offices across the Windermere footprint, 2022 is off to a strong start. Here are a few highlights from early 2022.

Windermere Northern Colorado

Windermere Northern Colorado has burst out the gate this year, organizing multiple fundraising events and supporting multiple local organizations throughout the early months of 2022. ChildSafe, based in Fort Collins, CO, provides children with responsive treatment, education, and recovery from child abuse. The Windermere office has supported ChildSafe in the past and wanted to continue to do so in 2022, donating $10,000 to them in February to help heal the trauma experienced by local victims of child abuse. In March, the office directed its giving efforts to the Weld County School District, with the goal of helping local children and families struggling with homelessness. Windermere Northern Colorado’s donation of $5,000 allowed the school district to purchase grocery gift cards for local families and students in need.

Pictured left to right: Weld RE-4 School District Director of Exceptional Student Services JonPaul Burden, Meaghan Nicholl, Elizabeth Dolton.

Windermere Utah

For the agents, owners, and staff at Windermere Utah, The Make-A-Wish Foundation has a special place in their hearts. Supporting children in need in their community has been a focal point of the office’s giving over the years, so when looking to kickstart their 2022 giving, Make-A-Wish was a natural fit. The office donated $5,000, which will go toward the organization’s ability to grant another child’s wish.

Windermere Coast Offices (Oregon)

The Windermere Coast Offices of Gearhart and Cannon Beach have made it a point to support the aspirations and success of women in their community. They’ve been loyal supporters of the Astoria, OR branch of the American Association of University Women (AAUW) since learning about the organization years ago. AAUW provides scholarships for women who may not otherwise have the resources to pursue and succeed in their educational and vocational goals.

To learn more about the Windermere Foundation, visit windermerefoundation.com.

Selling • April 18, 2022

How to Prepare for an Open House

by Phillipa Leseberg

A real estate agent shows a new home to a young man and woman.

To successfully sell your home, you need to attract buyers. This is why open houses are an integral part of the selling process: they allow buyers to experience the property for themselves and envision what life will look like in their new home. To prepare for an open house, you’ll need to work closely with your agent. They can advise you on what buyers in your area are looking for to increase your chances of selling your home.

How to Prepare for an Open House

The earlier you can begin prepping your home for an open house, the better, since getting it in prime showing condition will take time. Start by decluttering and organizing room by room. To truly get your home sparkling clean, you can’t miss those hard-to-reach areas like the baseboards, under your furniture, and your appliances.

To best position your home to sell, consider hiring a professional stager. A well-staged home helps it appeal to the widest possible array of potential buyers, not only for in-person showings, but in online photos as well. Professional staging is equal parts science and art. Stagers are experts in depersonalizing a home while maintaining its stylistic qualities to give buyers the opportunity to imagine the space for their own use. It isn’t just about psychology, though. Staging is a high-ROI expenditure that can add real value to your home.

It may feel counterintuitive, but your absence can be your greatest asset in making your open houses successful. Buyers will often feel uneasy in the presence of the seller as they tour, which will limit their ability to envision their own lives in the home and get excited about the prospect of ownership. Accordingly, you may need to arrange for temporary accommodations during the times your home is being shown. It’s helpful to solidify these plans several weeks in advance to avoid an eleventh-hour scramble.

Working with Your Agent

Your agent will be your greatest asset in preparing for open houses. They are experts in understanding how to effectively market your home and how the local market conditions will impact their marketing plan. Once you know it’s time to sell, they’ll analyze data to accurately price the property and keep it competitive in the current market. They’ll also work with you to schedule open houses at the times when buyers are maximally available and actively searching for listings.

Your agent will also help you to stay safe while selling your home. The reality of open houses is that you’re opening your doors to an influx of unfamiliar faces, and it’s worth it to take a few safety precautions beforehand. Perform a thorough walkthrough of your home with your agent to make sure all valuable belongings, medications, family heirlooms, and other important items have been properly secured and/or removed. Once you’ve given your home a clean sweep, discuss your process for screening potential buyers.

Market News • Matthew Gardner • April 4, 2022

Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrencies in Real Estate

by Phillipa Leseberg

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s chief economist, Matthew Gardner, and welcome to the latest episode of Mondays with Matthew. This month we’re going to take a look at Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies themselves and how both may impact home buyers and sellers in the future.

But before we dive into the potential impacts of cryptocurrency on the residential housing market, I must preface this by saying that the very word “crypto” is one that certainly divides people. Some see it as revolutionary, a tangible asset that will take over one day as the de-facto global currency, while others believe it to be unsustainable and ultimately valueless. And there are even some who firmly believe that it’s nothing more than a Ponzi scheme.

Now, everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion, and I will refrain from offering my own view on the currencies themselves, but, although still in its infancy, it continues to evolve and is garnering significant interest from individuals and large corporations alike.

Why are corporations interested, you ask? Well, a recent report from Crypto.com¹ put the number of people around the globe who own some form of cryptocurrency at more than 295 million and they are forecasting this number to explode this year and hit the 1 billion mark! And the value of all these currencies today? As of March 14, the combined value of all cryptocurrencies was 1.74 trillion dollars² with the largest, Bitcoin, valued at almost 740 billion dollars. So, it should not be a surprise to see many mainstream companies across multiple industry sectors start to introduce ways to accept crypto as payment for goods and services.

Companies moving into this space include AMC movie Theaters³ who recently announced their plan to accept coins by the end of this year. Fintech companies like Paypal and Square are also betting on crypto by allowing users to buy currency on their platforms. And, unsurprising to most, Tesla is also interested, but have yet to confirm whether they will accept coins as payment for their vehicles or not.

With cryptocurrencies now gaining traction in mainstream businesses, the housing sector has started to take an interest too with the emergence of companies like Propy, whose goal is to totally automate the home sales process by introducing Blockchain based technology to allow transactions to occur entirely online using smart contracts. Other companies are figuring out how to use blockchain technology to grow the “fractional-ownership” segment of the housing market.

But when it comes to simply buying a house—well that is an entirely different situation. Of course, a home buyer could easily cash out the Crypto they have and use those funds for a down payment, or even to buy a house outright. But we don’t see more of this today as they understand selling their currency is a taxable event and, more than likely, taxes owed will hit their balance sheets pretty hard. And knowing that this is a real issue in the market, it should come as no surprise that a company has come up with a plan to overcome what is seen as one of the biggest obstacles to using digital currency for home buying.

Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrencies in Real Estate

A slide introducing the cryptocurrency-based real estate company Milo and how their transactions work.

And they are Milo, who claim to offer the world’s first “crypto-mortgage”. Essentially, they will allow borrowers to use Bitcoin—but only Bitcoin as of right now—as collateral for a 30-year mortgage.

How this works is pretty simple. All buyers have to do is to “pledge” their coins on a one-for-one basis. Simply put, someone looking for a $500,000 mortgage would have to put up $500,000 worth of Bitcoin. This way, they don’t actually have to sell their coins, so there are no tax implications. And instead of going through a FICO credit check and showing proof of income to evaluate a borrower’s creditworthiness, Milo evaluates them based on their crypto wealth as well as the value of the property they are hoping to buy.

And in exchange for locking up their crypto, borrowers get a 30-year mortgage for their home purchase can also make their mortgage payments via traditional currency or Bitcoin. But there are differences between this and a traditional mortgage. First off is the interest rate. It currently ranges anywhere from 5 to 8% depending on the loan-to-value ratio. This is higher than the rate they could get today.

And the interest rate is not fixed, but variable, and based on the prevailing price of Bitcoin. The rate can go up or down depending on the value of the Bitcoin they have pledged, and this mortgage rate will be adjusted every year. Interestingly, if the price of Bitcoin goes up, borrowers can actually take back some of their crypto once a year. If the price of Bitcoin goes down, they may be asked to provide more crypto as collateral.

And finally, when the buyer sells, on closing Milo is paid back in U.S. dollars, and then the seller gets the Bitcoins they used for collateral back, along with the profit made on the sale.

I think that this is certainly an interesting play in the ownership housing sector and, although still in its infancy, looks to meet the needs of crypto owners who don’t want to face the tax obligation that would occur if they were to sell their coins to buy a home. Now, I must make clear that Windermere is certainly not endorsing Milo. In fact, I personally have concerns about the program given how volatile cryptocurrencies are.

You see, it is possible that users may be caught out by the value of their Bitcoin dropping significantly and, if this occurs at or around their anniversary date, it could significantly raise the interest rate—and therefore the monthly payment—on that loan, and if the price drops too far, then they may have to go through what is, in essence, a margin call, where they will have to submit more funds to the lender to bring them back to a point where equity in the home combined with the value of the Bitcoin covers the loan itself.

And I would add that if for some reason the buyer has to sell the home within the first three years⁴ of purchase there are pre-payment penalties that will be incurred. All in all, it is an interesting model, but it is still in its infancy. As always, time will tell how well it gets adopted.

The bottom line for me is that the likelihood of Cryptocurrency revolutionizing the way we buy homes from a finance perspective is still several years away, but after that, who knows! Something that does have the capacity to be adopted into the mainstream far quicker is the blockchain technology itself. I personally see title insurance as a segment that could benefit significantly and may well adopt this tech sooner than others.

With title insurance companies responsible for verifying and ensuring that a buyer or lender (depending on the type of title insurance) gets either clean ownership or a lien position in the land in question, Blockchain could change many aspects of how these processes are carried out. Here are some of the benefits:

The Potential Benefits of Blockchain Technology in Real Estate

A slide showing the benefits of Blockchain technology in real estate transactions, namely added security.

Security. More than 25 percent of title reports (alta.org) detail some form of defect to the title itself, but the ability of blockchain to immediately detect erroneous or potentially fraudulent information can significantly help to support the reliability of the records, therefore making the job of title insurance companies much more straightforward.

A slide showing the benefits of Blockchain technology in real estate, smart contracts, for example.

And then there’s smart contracts, which are actually a form of e-closing that is already beginning to be embraced by some in the industry. This technology makes the transfer of ownership almost seamless. Literally, it would take just a few clicks of a mouse. And this is also a massive benefit for the industry as the closing process would also change dramatically and become far more effortless and less time consuming than today’s standard means of closing on a home purchase.

A slide showing the benefits of Blockchain technology in real estate, improved record-keeping included.

And finally, record-keeping. While fraud and tampering are huge concerns for title companies, blockchain could all but eliminate these instances within ownership records. And, as it would convert land records to a distributed ledger, it cannot be altered within the blockchain itself, therefore making it safe in perpetuity. Blockchain, by design, prevents bad information from disrupting the chain and any attempt to tamper with it can be easily detected and therefore avoided. This is a massive upgrade from the county ledger that title insurance companies find themselves working with today.

No one can deny that Blockchain and cryptocurrencies, while still relatively new, do not appear to be just a flash in the pan. As we have discussed today, a number of companies continue to make inroads into the real estate world. Will some fail? Of course. But others will succeed. So, while still in its infancy, we should all have some sort of understanding of its potential to be a disruptor in the housing space in the future.

It’s my own personal belief that the Blockchain tech itself will be the thing that gets adopted by the real estate world faster than the rise of crypto as a way to buy or finance a home but, whatever your thoughts on this topic are, I think that it is highly unlikely that we will see it simply fade away over time.

As always, if you have any questions or comments about this particular topic, please do reach out to me but, in the meantime, stay safe out there and I look forward to visiting with you all again next month. Bye now.

References:

Buyer • Buying • Living • Local News • Market News • Selling • W Report • March 22, 2022

W Report – March 2022

by Phillipa Leseberg

Local market update.

Soaring prices and low inventory mean competition among King County buyers is fierce. Multiple offers are the norm, with most homes closing well over asking.Find our full market recap here.

News + trends.

WINDERMERE INSIGHTS

Condo sales reflect market intensity

While single-family home prices have been skyrocketing across the region, condos have been experiencing a boom of their own. The W Report reached out to local real estate leaders to find out why. READ MORE

[THE STATE OF] REAL ESTATE

Bellevue nonprofit builds affordable housing in the area

A new development on the Eastside aims to address housing issues by building up to 235 new affordable units.

READ MORE

LOCAL ECONOMY

Local tech companies plan for return to office

Major employers, including Google, Microsoft and Amazon, are prepping for the long-awaited return to the office.

READ MORE

LOCAL ECONOMY

Seattle and Bellevue office rentals continue to increase

Office space in the city is growing increasingly scarce, with companies committing to decade-long leases.

READ MORE

Happenings.

March 19 & 26Fee-free days at Washington State Parks

April 2Monster Jam at Lumen Field

Now – April 3“Art on the Mind: Ten Years of Creative Aging” at Frye Art Museum

April 6Olivia Rodrigo: Sour Tour at WAMU Theater

April 15Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Home Opener and Jackie Robinson Day

Pin-spiration.

Who doesn’t love the drama of a spiral staircase? Whether you’re winding your way up to a secret hideaway or simply enjoying the swirling architecture, there’s something for everyone on this Pinterest board.

Listing From My Office.

$5,480,000

CLYDE HILL2260 95th Ave NE, Clyde Hill5 Beds / 5.5 Bath / 5,678 SF

LEARN MORE

Cast your vote.

CRAFTSMAN OR CONTEMPORARY

Which do you prefer? Click below to vote.

CRAFTSMAN! I love this classiclook.

CONTEMPORARY! I want a modern design.

VOTE NOW

Last month’s poll results: Wallpaper: 38%. Paint: 62%.

Design • March 20, 2022

5 Design Projects to Improve Your Backyard

by Phillipa Leseberg

A modern home with a professionally landscaped backyard and paved firepit.

Your home’s façade and front yard play a role in its curb appeal, but the backyard is for you and your household to enjoy. Spending time making improvements to your backyard will help to maximize your enjoyment of your property and can increase its value. These backyard design projects will help to beautify your yard while creating opportunities for new ways of spending time in it.

5 Design Projects to Improve Your Backyard

1. Improve Your Deck

Just as the kitchen can often be the heart of a home’s interior, a deck is typically the central hub of the backyard. To maximize the seating capability of a deck with a smaller footprint, consider tiering your deck into multiple levels. By adding some separation vertically, you’ll make the most of its square footage.

Consider butting up your built-in seating to your deck’s banister or railing and wrapping it around the perimeter. This will help make your deck more welcoming while saving space that would be taken up by chairs. For an even more efficient space-saving strategy, keep the space underneath your built-in seating open or install a drawer system to store your backyard and/or outdoor kitchen items and tools. If a deck rebuild isn’t in the cards, try simpler improvement projects like restraining it or adding outdoor lighting.

2. Build a Tool Shed

Every backyard requires maintenance, and you typically need tools to keep it in tip-top shape. A useful DIY project for your backyard is to build a tool shed to house your garden tools and landscaping equipment. This will give them a safe, dry storage space, which helps to extend their useful life and avoids having to make unnecessary replacements. When in doubt, add extra shelving space, as you very well may build out your tool collection over time. Once your shed is complete and all your tools are in their right place, install a secure locking system to protect your equipment.

A family having a backyard picnic on a sunny day.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: vgajic

3. Create an Outdoor Cooking Area

Outfitting your backyard for a robust outdoor kitchen with all the bells and whistles can be expensive. Fortunately, you can create an outdoor cooking area without having to break the bank. Depending on your local climate, it may be wise to cover this area with some sort of roof structure. If so, be sure to leave ample room between your cooking equipment and the height of the roof to allow flames and fumes to safely escape.

Different types of barbecues can satisfy your outdoor kitchen needs, depending on how much room you have to work with. Charcoal grills are ideal for smaller spaces, while built-in barbecues can provide a more comprehensive grilling setup if you have the allotted square footage.

4. Give Your Flower Beds a Makeover

Flower beds have quite an impact on the overall aesthetic of your backyard. If your flower beds are overgrown, start by pulling out the weeds. Use a garden trowel; this will help to dig up the roots and decreases the chance of recurring weeds. Remove all the weeds and debris, then rake the soil to prepare it for composting. While you rake, keep an eye out for rocks and gravel and remove them from the flower bed.

Now you’re ready to add a new layer of compost. This does wonders for the health of the soil and encourages new plant growth. Sprinkle in two to three inches of compost and work it into the soil with a shovel. You can also experiment with adding other nutrient-rich ingredients or plant materials that are conducive to soil in your climate, such as peat or manure.

5. Build Your Ultimate Patio

For many homeowners, building a patio exists at the crossroads between a DIY project and one that requires a professional’s expertise. Whichever route you choose, executing a patio installation can take your backyard to the next level. Choosing your patio material is the first step. Concrete, flagstone, brick, terra-cotta, and pea gravel are all common patio materials that have their respective advantages and disadvantages. If having a patio that’s built to last is your top priority, then brick, flagstone, or concrete may be the way to go. These materials also complement a variety of house styles, as well. If you’re looking to create a more relaxed environment in your backyard, then pea gravel or clay may be more your style. These materials recall aspects of the beach and seaside living.

Buyer • Buying • March 7, 2022

The Different Types of Home Loans for Buyers

by Phillipa Leseberg

A woman sits down with her mortgage broker to look over different types of home loans.

Financing terms are the nuts and bolts of a successful home purchase. Once you’ve decided you’re ready to buy a house, it’s a matter of making the numbers work. So, which home loan is the right one for you? Knowing the different types of mortgage loans available to you will allow you to pinpoint the one that best fits your needs and is financially viable.

The Different Types of Home Loans for Buyers

Conventional Loans

Conventional loans are the most popular type of home loan issued to borrowers. Offered by private lenders, they are not backed by the government. Conventional mortgages divide into two subsets: conforming loans; which adhere to Federal Housing Financing Agency (FHFA) guidelines, and non-conforming loans; which do not. Due to the added risk taken on by the lender, non-conforming loans typically have higher rates. A jumbo loan is an example of a non-conforming loan, due to its loan amounts being higher than the amount limits laid out in the underwriting guidelines. The two most common conventional loans are 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages.

15-Year and 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages

The terms of your loan will drastically impact all aspects of your mortgage. With a 30-year mortgage, you’ll have lower monthly payments and a higher interest rate than you’d have with a 15-year mortgage, meaning you’ll pay more in interest over the life of the loan. With a 15-year mortgage, you’ll pay less interest, but you’ll have a higher monthly payment. Compared to a 30-year mortgage, a 15-year mortgage can save you money over the life of the loan, simply because you’re in debt for half the time; however, the higher monthly payments may be unaffordable for some.

A woman sits at a table signing her mortgage paperwork.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: guvendemir

Government-Backed Loans

Whereas conventional loans are not backed by a federal entity, there are several unconventional loans that are backed by the U.S. government. These unconventional loans can often provide a path to homeownership for borrowers who don’t have the credentials to qualify for a conventional loan.

FHA and USDA mortgages are two common types of government-backed loans. Instead of having to make a 20% down payment on a conventional loan to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI), an FHA loan allows buyers to qualify for a mortgage with a down payment as little as 3.5%. USDA loans enable buyers to purchase a home with reduced interest rates. VA loans offer several benefits for active service personnel and veterans looking to buy a home, including not having to purchase mortgage insurance.

Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgages

Fixed-rate mortgages allow you to lock in a specified interest rate for the life of the loan. With an unchanging monthly mortgage payment, a fixed-rate mortgage makes financial planning easier. Adjustable-rate mortgages’ interest rates will go up and down based on market conditions. Many ARMs will start with a fixed-interest rate period followed by a variable interest rate until the loan amount is paid off. Keep in mind that a sudden change in your financial situation could make your monthly ARM payments unaffordable, which could result in a loan default.

Other Home Loans

There are other more niche financing options available for prospective home buyers. For example, a construction loan can be useful if you’re planning on building a home. Balloon mortgages and sub-prime mortgages can make homeownership feasible for those who aren’t financially prepared for the typical repayment structure of a mortgage. These loans, however, come with greater risks. Talk to a mortgage broker to understand the terms of these agreements before making a final decision.

Market News • Market Report • Matthew Gardner • March 7, 2022

The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

by Phillipa Leseberg

The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

Hello there. I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Welcome to the latest episode of Monday with Matthew.

Over the past several weeks I’ve gotten a lot of messages from you wanting me to discuss the spike in mortgage rates that followed comments by the Federal Reserve, but also asking me if there will be any impacts to the housing market following Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. This is clearly a hot topic right now, so today we are going to take a look at how these events have impacted mortgage rates, but also look at how this may have changed my mortgage rate outlook for 2022. So, let’s get to it.

Weekly Mortgage Rates

A graph titled "Weekly Mortgage Rates" showign the US weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Beginning in January 2020, the rates were roughly 3.7%, falling to an all-time low of 2.67% in January 2021, before rising back to 3.92% in February 2022. Rates rose from 3.11% at the end of 2021 to 3.92% in just eight weeks.

Here is a chart that shows how rates have moved over the past two years or so using Freddie Mac’s average weekly rate for a conforming 30-year mortgage. You’ll see that rates were falling in early 2020, but when COVID-19 was announced as a pandemic they spiked, but almost immediately the Fed announced their support for the economy by implementing a broad array of actions to keep credit flowing and limit the economic damage that the pandemic would likely create. And part of that support included large purchases of U.S. government and mortgage-backed securities. With the Fed as a major buyer of mortgage securities, rates dropped ending 2020 at a level never seen in the more than 50 years that the 30-year mortgage has been with us.

In early 2021, rates started to rise again as the country became more confident that the pandemic was coming under control, but all that changed with the rise the Delta variant of COVID-19 which pushed rates lower through mid-summer. As we again started to believe that COVID was under control and a booster shot became available, you’ll see rates resumed their upward trend in August.

What has everyone worried today is this spike that really took off at the end of last year. A jump of almost a full percentage point in just eight short weeks understandably has a lot of agents, buyers, and sellers, concerned about what impacts this might have on what has been a remarkably buoyant housing market. Now, rates rising so quickly was unusual, but not unprecedented. If you really wanted to be scared, I’d regale you with stories from 1980 when mortgage rates jumped by over 3.5% in less than eight weeks.

Anyway, before we really dig into this topic, some of you may be thinking to yourselves that my numbers have to be wrong because they differ from the rates you have been looking at. This is due to the fact that the Freddie Mac survey methodology is different from other rate surveys but, even though their rates may not match the ones you’ve been seeing from other data providers, the trend is still consistent.

So, let’s chat for a bit about what caused the spike in rates. You know, it’s always good to have a villain in any story and the primary but certainly not sole culprit responsible for the jump in rates is—you guessed it—the Federal Reserve.

As I mentioned earlier, the Fed was the biggest buyer of pools of home loans (otherwise known as mortgage-backed securities) as we moved through the pandemic, but last December they announced an end to what had been an era of easy money by winding down these purchases in order to lay the groundwork for shrinking their 2.7 trillion—yes I said “trillion”—dollar stockpile of MBS paper they had built up. This decision to move from “quantitative easing” to “quantitative tightening” so rapidly had an almost immediate impact on mortgage rates simply because the market was going to lose its biggest buyer of mortgage bonds.

Immediately on the heels of their announcement, bond sellers raised the interest rate on their bond offerings to try and find buyers other than the Fed, so lenders raised the rates on mortgages housed within these bond offerings. Finally, mortgage brokers moved quickly to raise the rates that they were quoting to the public. The result of all this was that rates leapt. Although we know that the primary party responsible for rates rising was the Fed, there were other players too, and here I am talking about inflation—and as you are no doubt aware—it too started to spike at the beginning of this year and now stands at a level not seen since 1982. And if you’re wondering why inflation is important. Well, high inflation is a disincentive to bond buyers because if the rate of return, or interest on mortgage bonds, is lower than inflation, investors lose interest pretty quickly.

So, we can blame the Fed, we can blame inflation, but what about Russia? Well, their invasion of the Ukraine on February 24 has certainly influenced mortgage rates, but maybe not in the way you might expect. In general, when there’s any sort of global or national geopolitical event, investors tend to gravitate to safety, and this invariably means a shift out of equities and into bonds.

So you would be correct is thinking that at face value Russia was actually responsible for the tiny drop in rates we saw following the invasion, and also the more significant drop we saw last week when the market saw the biggest two-day drop in rates in over a decade. But before you start to think that rates are headed back to where they were a year ago, I’ve got some bad news for you. That is almost guaranteed not to happen.

Given what we know today, the terrible conflict in Eastern Europe is highly unlikely to push rates back down to where they were at the start of this year, but they will—at least for now—act as a headwind to rates continuing to head higher at the pace we have seen over recent weeks. That will continue until the conflict is hopefully peaceably concluded. And although the Ukraine situation is unlikely to have any significant impact up or down on mortgage rates, there are some indirect impacts which could negatively hit the housing market. Now I’m talking about oil.

Russia is the third largest energy producer in the world and an already tight global oil supply could get even tighter following newly announced financial sanctions on Russia. A barrel of oil has jumped by almost $20 to $109 a barrel since the start of the occupation and, if the occupation is sustained, and Russia is faced with even greater sanctions, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the price of gas rise by between 20 and 40 cents a gallon. And it’s this, in concert with already high inflation, which will directly hit consumers wallets and this itself could certainly impact mortgage borrowing. So we can blame the Fed, we can blame inflation and we can blame Russia for the jump in rates, but are the rates you are seeing today really something to lose sleep over? I actually don’t think so. At least not yet.

Even with mortgage rates where they are today, I look at them and think to myself that they are still exceptionally low by historic standards and that there really is no need for panic. But let me explain my thinking to you. To do this, we will take a look at the impact of rising mortgage rates, not as it relates to buyers’ ability to finance a home purchase, but on how it impacts their monthly payments.

Hypothetical Home Purchase

A graphic title "Hypothetical Home Purchase." It shows that a home sold at the same price of $370,100 in June 2021 versus February 2022, financed at 2.96% and 4.06% respectively, generates a PITI payment of $1,682 and $1,864 respectively, meaning that buyers will pay just $182 more per month to buy the same home.

For this example, we’ll use the peak sale price for a single-family home in America, which was just over $370,000 back in June of last year. And to finance this purchase, a buyer was lucky enough to lock in the lowest mortgage rate for that month at 2.96%. Assuming that they put 20% down, and are paying the U.S. average homeowners insurance premium and average property taxes a buyer closing on that home in June of last year would have a monthly payment of $1,682.

Now, what if a buyer had bought the exact same house but in February of this year? Well, the average rate for the third week of February was 4.06%—a big jump from last June—and higher mortgage rates would have increased their payment to $1,864. What does this all mean? Well, a jump of over a full percentage point means that the monthly payment is more, but only a relatively modest $182. So, even though rates have risen by almost a full percentage point, the increase in payments was, I think you’ll agree, relatively nominal.

But what if rates had risen to 5%? Well, that would be a very different picture with payments increasing by a far more significant $348. Of course, this is a very simplistic way of looking at it as I have not included any other debt payments that a buyer may have, but I hope that it does demonstrate that, even though mortgage rates are certainly significantly higher than they were last summer, because we started from such a low basis, monthly payments have seen a relatively modest increase. The bottom line is that rates were never going to hold at the record lows we have seen, and we need to just accept the fact that they will continue trending higher as we move through the year but are yet at a level that suggests impending doom for the housing arena. So, where do I think that rates will be by the end of this year? Well, here is my very latest forecast for the rest of this year.

Mortgage Rates Forecast

A bar graph titled "Mortgage Rates Forecast" showing the average 30-year mortgage rate history. In Q1 of 2020, the rate is at 3.51%, dipping to 2.76% in Q4 2020 before rising back up to 3.08% in Q4 2021. Matthew Gardner forecasts a rate of 3.71% in Q1 2022, 3.84% in Q2 2022, 3.92% in Q3 2022, and 4.07% in Q4 2022.

Given all we know in respect to the Fed and the current situation in Ukraine, my model suggests a significant jump in the first quarter, but then the pace of increase slows significantly and we will end this year at a rate that is almost half a percentage point above the forecast I offered at the start of the year.

Forecasts From Various Analysts

A bar graph titled "Forecasts from Various Analysts" showing Q4 2022 forecasts for conventional 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie Mae forecasts 3.7%, Freddie Mac forecasts 3.74%, NAR forecasts 3.9%, Redfin forecasts 3.9%, Kiplinger and Wells Fargo both forecast 4%, Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts 4.3%, and Matthew Gardner forecasts 4.07%.

Of course, this is the opinion of just one economist, so I thought it would be useful for you to see what others are thinking. And amazingly enough, most of us—at least for now—are still in a pretty tight range regarding our expectations for the average rate in the 4^th quarter of 2022 with Fannie Mae at the low end of the spectrum and the Mortgage Bankers Association at the high end.

I honestly believe that, all things being equal, the impact of higher mortgage rates is unlikely to significantly impact the U.S. market this year and, even with rates rising, the market will remain tight in terms of supply and will continue to favor home sellers. That said, once we break above 4.5%, I would expect to see the increased cost of financing having a greater impact on not just on demand but on price growth, too.

And if you are wondering why I am so sure about this, it’s simply because we saw the exact same situation in 2018 when rates rose to 4.9% and we saw a palpable pull back in sales; which dropped from an annual rate of 5.4 million to 5 million units and the pace of price growth dropped from 5.9% to 3.3%. Now, I don’t see rates getting close to 5% for quite some time and therefore still expect demand to remain robust—off the all-time highs we have seen—but still solid given demographically-driven demand as well as increasing demand from buyers trying to find a new home before rates much further.

Of course, the impact of rates rising will not be felt equally across all markets. Many areas, and especially in coastal States, have seen home values skyrocket to levels that are well above the national average. Although incomes are generally higher in these markets, buyers in more expensive areas will feel more pain from higher financing costs.

And there you have it. I hope that today’s chat has not only given you some additional tools to use in your day-to-day business but has also given you enough information to hopefully ease some of the worry that many of you are feeling right now. As always, if you have any questions or comments about this particular topic, please do reach out to me but, in the meantime, stay safe out there and I look forward to visiting with you all again next month.

Buyer • Buying • Living • Local News • Market News • Selling • W Report • February 17, 2022

W Report – February 2022

by Phillipa Leseberg

Local market update.

The King County market is heating up again, with a majority of homes selling quickly and well over asking price. This spring looks to be busier than ever.Find our full market recap here.

News + trends.

[THE STATE OF] REAL ESTATE

New Africatown development brings affordable housing to Central District

Africatown Plaza offers a new space for community, solidarity and most importantly, affordable housing in one of Seattle’s historically Black neighborhoods.READ MORE

LOCAL ECONOMY

Bellevue gains new popularity among tech workers

The Eastside city is turning heads with new urban developments that appeal to younger tech workers.

READ MORE

[THE STATE OF] REAL ESTATE

Microsoft to increase its commitment to affordable housing

Two years after Microsoft revealed its Affordable Housing Initiative, the tech giant is redoubling its efforts.

READ MORE

WINDERMERE INSIGHTS

Matthew Gardner’s top 10 predictions for 2022

From rising prices to zoning issues and climate change, Windermere’s chief economist tackles the year to come.

READ MORE

Happenings.

February 20 & 27Black History Month Celebration at Black Coffee Northwest – BallardFebruary 24 – 27Wintergrass Music Festival at the Hyatt Regency BellevueFebruary 18 – March 13“Songs for a New World” at the Everett Performing Arts CenterJanuary 18 – March 13Cirque du Soleil’s “Alegria: In a New Light” at Marymoor ParkApril 2022Dinos Alive interactive exhibit in Seattle

Pin-spiration.

There’s more than one way to jazz up a room. While some might prefer to stick to paint or eclectic furniture, this Wonderful Wallpaper packs a punch all its own.

My featured listings & sales.

$1,750,000

SOUTH LAKE UNION325 Dexter Avenue South, Seattle4 Beds / 4 Bath / 3,800 SF

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Sold for $1,750,000

SOUTH LAKE UNION325 Dexter Avenue South, Seattle4 Beds / 4 Bath / 3,800 SF

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Cast your vote.

WALLPAPER OR PAINT

Which do you prefer in your home decor?

Wallpaper! I love the funky patternsand unique options.

Paint! All you need is a good accentwall to draw the eye.

VOTE NOW

Last month’s poll results. White kitchens: 47%. Kitchens with color: 52%.

Design • February 14, 2022

Hiring a Contractor for Your Remodel

by Phillipa Leseberg

Two young male contractors look at blueprints as they prepare to begin a remodel.

Much has been said about the benefits of taking a DIY approach to home remodeling projects. It instills pride of ownership, builds the sweat equity you’ve put into your home, and can be more affordable than hiring a professional. The reality is, however, that sometimes, projects simply require a pro to be done right. Whether it’s the magnitude of the project, the caliber of skill required to successfully complete the job, or a combination of the two, certain projects are best executed in the hands of a professional. So, what do you need to keep in mind when hiring a contractor? Here are some quick tips:

Preparing to Hire a Contractor

Have your plans ready when you begin meeting with contractors. This will show them that you are prepared and fully invested in the project. Conduct phone interviews and meet in-person with potential candidates to give yourself the opportunity to gauge their professionalism and expertise. Here are some helpful questions to ask to get you started:

What prior experience do you have with this particular remodeling project?
Is your company licensed?
What is your timeline for starting and completing this job?
How long have you worked with your current subcontractors?
Could you provide a list of references that can speak to your quality of work?

Contractor Contracts and Implied Warranty

It is important that you understand the contract you’re agreeing to, and that you examine its finer points, such as the warranty terms. These terms will spell out what course of action will result should there be an issue with the contractor’s work. In the U.S., we have a legal concept known as “implied warranty” that protects those who hire out contractors. “Implied warranty” essentially means that it is understood that the contractor will perform quality work and that the home will continue to be safe to live in as a result of the repairs. These implied warranties are known as “good workmanship” and “habitability” respectively.

A good contract will have a detailed description of the labor and materials required to perform the job, a project schedule, the names of suppliers and subcontractors the contractors plan to use, and the payment schedule you have agreed upon.

A man and a woman shake hands with two contractors as they go over their remodeling plans.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: shynesher

Setting a Payment Schedule

When it comes to the cost of labor and materials, you won’t have much room for negotiation. The payment schedule, however, is one area where you can negotiate. Before the work begins, agree on a payment structure with your contractor. Good contractors want to perform high-quality work, completed on-time, and the agreement you reach together can incentivize their work. For example, you can stipulate that a certain percentage of the total job cost is paid out when certain stages of the project are completed.

The Potential for Temporary Housing

For large-scale remodeling projects, contractors need space to work at a high standard. Accordingly, it may be best for everyone involved if you and your household move out of your home temporarily until the work is complete. A home during a remodel is a noisy and chaotic place to be. Dust is flying, saws are buzzing, sheetrock is crashing to the floor, walls are being knocked out, and hammers are hammering. Trying to coexist with the remodel may be more trouble than it’s worth, since your usage of your home will be severely limited for the time being. If you plan on hiring a contractor to perform a large-scale remodel, search for housing alternatives far in advance to ensure that you and your household will have a place to stay.