Windermere Community • January 23, 2024

Windermere Foundation Brings Cheer, Laughter, and Basic Needs in the Final Months of 2023

by Phillipa Leseberg

Three candid photos from featured events, on the left Windermere Real Estate Agents from East Inc. wrap gifts for their Windermere For Kids event. The middle is shot from behind someone with their paddle raised at the Seattle Comedy Night. On the right is a photo of Saturday Nigh Live Comedian, Colin Jost, on stage during his set.

Windermere Real Estate offices throughout the Western U.S. brought holiday cheer and laughter to their local communities during the holiday season of 2023, wrapping up a year of giving that raised over $2.9 million for the Windermere Foundation, bringing the total raised since 1989 to more than $53 million.

Here are a few examples of the support provided by Windermere offices through the Windermere Foundation in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Bringing Holiday Cheer

Under Cover Elves in Central Washington

Windermere Group One continued a tradition and brought some holiday cheer to 21 deserving local families with their “Under Cover Elves” program. Since 2010, they have worked with the counselors at local schools to find and “adopt” families who were not able to buy gifts due to their financial situations. This year, some of the families were homeless, others were struggling after layoffs.

The school counselors mentioned too, that many support programs were not happening this year for families in need and they were grateful that the local Windermere offices were making this happen with Windermere Foundation funds.

More than 40 Windermere Real Estate agents and staff volunteers went shopping with the kids to buy presents for their parents and siblings. Many of the kids didn’t ask for things themselves, most lists consisted of everyday essentials like food, clothing, and cleaning supplies. But the volunteers were determined to add a few surprises too, so they did some digging while they shopped to find toys that they could add to the presents under the tree.

“The families were blown away from this event, so many thank you’s and tears of gratitude,” said Mikaya Blossner-Hill, the Marketing Director for the Windermere Group One offices.

A large group of people pose smiling in the Windermere Bozeman, MT office with a giant check made out to Greater Gallatin United Way for $5,000.

Image Sources: Windermere Bozeman, MT on Facebook

Giving Back in Bozeman, Montana

The team at the Windermere Bozeman-Downtown office is fully devoted to supporting their neighbors in need and have a collective commitment to bettering the community they call home. One example of this is the $5,000 donation they made from the Windermere Foundation to the during the Greater Gallatin United Way weeks leading up to the holidays. The Greater Gallatin United Way raises funds from the community in order to invest in local non-profits working in four impact areas: basic needs (shelter, food security, transportation, and childcare), early learning, youth success, and behavioral health and mental well-being. The members of the Windermere Bozeman-Downtown office say that they feel incredibly fortunate to have the Greater Gallatin United Way looking out for their neighbors and their community.

Image Source: Melissa Freels, Director of Marketing Windermere Services, Oregon

Raising Funds with a Crowd Favorite in Portland, Oregon

The Windermere Johnson office in Portland, Oregon held a fundraiser that made many people smile and raised money for the Windermere Foundation. At the end of 2023 they put together a “Dogs of Windermere” calendar for the year 2024. This adorable fundraiser earned over $1,100 for the Windermere Foundation by selling copies of the calendars and with submissions from agents who sent in the cutest photos of their dogs they could muster; it wasn’t that hard. With such a successful first run they plan to do it again next year.

Windermere For Kids in Bellevue, Washington

Continuing their yearly tradition, Windermere East, Inc. helped deliver holiday spirit to low-income and homeless families from in and around Bellevue, Washington with their “Windermere for Kids” event. In December, they invited over 100 local children to the Marketplace at Factoria to do their holiday shopping with 250 agents from six Windermere offices.

Each child and their families received $250 to buy gifts at Target, which were then wrapped by the Windermere Real Estate agents while the families enjoyed snacks and took photos with an elf. And as an added treat, the agents who helped them shop added a surprise gift for each “Little Shopper.”

A group of Windermere agents pose smiling by paper bags full of food from their annual Can the Cats Food Drive benefiting Missoula Food Bank and Community Center.

Image Sources: Windermere Missoula, MT on Facebook

Can the Cats in Missoula, Montana

The agents in the Windemere Missoula office continued their tradition of collecting and donating food to the for their annual “Can the Cats Food Drive”. Now in its twenty-fourth year, the Can the Cats Food Drive is held every November leading up to the University of Montana vs. Montana State University “Griz-Cat Brawl of the Wild” rivalry football game. Missoulians are encouraged to donate food and cash which benefits thousands of households experiencing food insecurity in Missoula County. The Windermere Missoula team collected over 2,000 pounds of food from their local community which was delivered in bags donated by WinCo Foods Missoula. This was the eighth year Windermere Missoula participated in this event which Managing Broker John Brauer says is great fun and an incredible team-building experience.

Bringing Laughter and Raising Funds in Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington

Comedy Night

The Windermere Foundation expanded the annual comedy night held in Portland, OR for the last 22 years to bring even more laughter and raise more money with another event in Seattle, WA.

Both events in 2023 featured Saturday Night Live comedian, Colin Jost. Together they raised over $1.1 million for local organizations supporting youth and families in need.

The annual Steve Allen Comedy Show in Portland, OR was founded by Windermere and benefits non-profit organization New Avenues for Youth, which is dedicated to the prevention and intervention of homelessness for Portland-area young people. The event helps New Avenues for Youth provide programs and services to young people in Portland that focus on the individual – their experiences, identities, needs and goals—and helping them make positive changes in their lives. From meals and counseling to job training and housing, their equity-based services address the many barriers to stability and well-being that young people face.

The inaugural Windermere Foundation Comedy Night in Seattle was organized by and benefited the Windermere Foundation, which has been giving back to the local communities where Windermere Real Estate agents live and work for 35 years. More than 400 people came together for a laughter-filled evening that included dinner, drinks, and an amazing amount of generosity. The money raised from ticket sales and the paddle raise will support organizations in the Seattle area that provide services to low-income and homeless children and families.

SOURCE: Windermere

2024 Eastside Market Shares – Posted

by Phillipa Leseberg

Market Share reports for the Eastside 2024

Design • January 10, 2024

5 Features of Greek Revival Architecture

by Phillipa Leseberg

5 Features of Greek Revival Architecture

SOURCE: Windermere

Some home designs reach way back through history. Greek Revival architecture is inspired by the principles of design formed in ancient Greece. These stately homes evoke a formal and traditional atmosphere akin to the feeling you get standing in the presence of the Parthenon. Let’s explore the history and features of these unique homes to understand what makes them so special.

5 Features of Greek Revival Architecture

1. Grand Entryways with Columns: The columns found in Greek Revival architecture are the defining characteristic of the style. Without these towering features, these homes simply wouldn’t feel the same. When used in a residential setting, columns help to create a feeling of grand stature by combining stories and stretching the verticality of the house. Columns were commonly found in important buildings constructed in ancient Greece, and today, they give Greek Revival architecture its timeless appeal.

2. Large Front Porches: In a residential setting, ample porch space creates a natural connection between the home and the outdoors. For all their grandeur, the way these homes are designed, there’s still a connection between them and their surrounding environment. As Greek Revival spread throughout the United States in the late 18^th and early 19^th centuries, different variations of the style were adopted to fit needs of the homeowners in different regions. However, porch space remained a universal feature of homes created in this style.

3. Decorative Windows: If the columns don’t give it away, the decorative dormer windows found in Greek Revival homes are a telltale sign of the style. These important features maximize natural light, which is perfectly displayed in the open layouts commonly found in these homes. The windows stretch vertically to complement the columns and give a very structured look to the exterior.

4. Ornate Details: Looking back at the most inspirational and renowned design works of ancient Greece, it’s no wonder that the opulent detailing of these magical buildings continued to be an important feature during the revival period. Intricate molding, ornate carvings, towering columns, and luxurious tile designs all reinforce the beauty of these homes. Marble was commonly used throughout these homes originally, inspired by the ancient Greeks’ preference for the rock in their building construction.

5. Greek Revival Architecture Color Scheme: The dominant color in the Greek Revival palette is white. Yes, white marble was prevalent throughout temples in ancient Greece, but the preference for white amongst the designers behind the revival movement had just as much sway in how we see this style represented today. Many Greek Revival homes found today are constructed with wood or stucco and painted white. In terms of interior design, this typically whitewashed palette gives you a clean slate to decorate on top of. Primary colors and natural, organic hues pair well with these classic buildings.

SOURCE: Windermere

Buying • December 20, 2023

Is Co-Buying a Home Right For You?

by Phillipa Leseberg

Two young women co-buying a home sit in their new house surrounded by boxes.

For some buyers, purchasing a home independently may be out of reach. Co-buying a home is an alternative approach to homeownership where two or more individuals purchase the property together and take on a joint mortgage. Get to know the benefits and drawbacks of co-buying a home before deciding whether it’s right for you.

How Does Co-Buying Work?

Just like a traditional home purchase, lenders use the buyers’ debt-to-income ratios and credit scores to determine their mortgage eligibility and formulate the terms of their loan. The lender will use the lowest median credit score to determine whether the co-buyers qualify. Before you purchase with a co-buyer, work with a real estate attorney to flesh out the details of the agreement including the distribution of shares, the responsibility of each party for the down payment and subsequent mortgage payments, and the home’s title. There are two main options for taking title to a home with a co-buyer.

Tenancy in Common (TIC)

When co-buyers hold a title as tenants in common, shares of the property can be divided equally or unequally. You and a co-buyer can decide to split ownership to reflect the amount invested. However, even if these amounts are unequal, no one individual may claim sole ownership of the property. If a co-buyer dies, their ownership passes along to their designated heir. With Tenancy in Common, a co-owner may sell their shares of the property at any time, without the need for approval from other co-owners.

Joint Tenancy

Joint Tenancy—or Joint Tenancy with Right of Survivorship (JTWROS)—requires that all co-buyers hold an equal interest in the property and that they all come into ownership through the same title at the same time. If one co-owner dies, ownership passes to the other co-owner—this is known as Right of Survivorship. Unlike Tenancy in Common, co-owners must receive approval before selling any property shares.

Pros and Cons of Co-Buying

Pros of Co-Buying

For those who don’t have the buying power to purchase a home on their own, co-buying presents an opportunity to combine assets and enter the market. Since lenders will be factoring in both of your incomes, you and your co-buyer will increase your chances of being approved for a mortgage and securing a low interest rate. Both of you will build equity over time as you pay back your joint mortgage. Even after the down payment and mortgage payments, there are a handful of costs that come with being a homeowner. Co-buying allows you to split these costs, saving money on bills, utilities, maintenance costs, and the like.

Cons of Co-Buying

Co-buying a home means you are relinquishing some control over the homeownership costs. At the end of the day, you can’t control your co-buyer’s finances. If a sudden life change leaves them financially unstable, the burden will fall on your shoulders, and you’ll have to make up the difference. Similarly, your credit score could take a hit if your co-buyer is unable to make their mortgage payments, even if you’ve consistently made yours.

Before entering a co-buying agreement, it’s important that you and your co-buyer are on the same page about the terms of ownership and your expectations as joint homeowners. Working closely together will help maintain the health of your finances, and most importantly, your relationship.

W Report • December 16, 2023

W Report – December 2023

by Phillipa Leseberg

Local market update.

Despite low seasonal inventory, the King County real estate market shows some life, and buyers remain willing to compete for plum properties. A slight decrease in interest rates could mean welcome positivity in the new year. Find our full market recap here.

News + trends.

LOCAL ECONOMY

4,000+ buildings to zero out carbon emissions

The Seattle City Council passed legislation requiring Seattle buildings over 20,000 square feet to cut their greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050. These structures currently account for 37% of Seattle’s total core emissions. READ MORE

LOCAL ECONOMY

Millennials are migrating to Seattle and Bellevue

The two cities are among the country’s top 10 most popular living destinations for millennials.

[THE STATE OF] REAL ESTATE

Eastsiders encouraged to switch to heat pumps

The “Make the Switch” campaign can save homeowners over $6,000 by using an energy-efficient heat pump.

[THE STATE OF] REAL ESTATE

Amazon offers hands-off support to local housing developers

The company’s Housing Equity Fund allows for consciously created affordable housing communities.

Happenings.

December 22  

Arboretum Winter Solstice Walk

  Now – December 24  

Diving Santa at Seattle Aquarium

December 29  

Home for the Holidays at The Royal Room

Now – December 30  

Black Nativity at Intiman Theatre

December 31  

T-Mobile New Year’s at the Needle 2024

Now – January 7

 Art+Flight at the Museum of Flight  

Pin-spiration.

Transform your home into a winter wonderland of joy. Cozy blankets, twinkling lights and sparkling adornments are enough to melt even Jack Frost’s heart. Discover Winter Home Décor.

My featured listings & sales.

$1,950,000

EAST WOODINVILLE17530 214th Ave NE, Woodinville4 Beds / 3.25 Bath / 4,150 SF

LEARN MORE

Cast your vote.

WINTER DECOR

Colorful vs neutral? Click below to vote.

COLORFUL! I need pops of color toget through long grey days.

NEUTRAL! I need to stay calm and collected this time of year.

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Market News • Matthew Gardner • December 5, 2023

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Housing Predictions for 2024

by Phillipa Leseberg

This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2024. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market. See more market insights on our blog here.

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2024

1. Still no housing bubble

This was number one on my list last year and, so far, my forecast was spot on. The reason why I’m calling it out again is because the market performed better in 2023 than I expected. Continued price growth, combined with significantly higher mortgage rates, might suggest to some that the market will implode in 2024, but I find this implausible.

2. Mortgage rates will drop, but not quickly

The U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient, which has led the Federal Reserve to indicate that they will keep mortgage rates higher for longer to tame inflation. But data shows inflation and the broader economy are starting to slow, which should allow mortgage rates to ease in 2024. That said, I think rates will only fall to around 6% by the end of the year.

3. Listing activity will rise modestly

Although I expect a modest increase in listing activity in 2024, many homeowners will be hesitant to sell and lose their current mortgage rate. The latest data shows 80% of mortgaged homeowners in the U.S. have rates at or below 5%. Although they may not be inclined to sell right now, when rates fall to within 1.5% of their current rate, some will be motivated to move.

4.Home prices will rise, but not much

While many forecasters said home prices would fall in 2023, that was not the case, as the lack of inventory propped up home values. Given that it’s unlikely that there will be a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, I don’t expect prices to drop in 2024. However, growth will be a very modest 1%, which is the lowest pace seen for many years, but growth all the same.

5. Home values in markets that crashed will recover

During the pandemic there were a number of more affordable markets across the country that experienced significant price increases, followed by price declines post-pandemic. I expected home prices in those areas to take longer to recover than the rest of the nation, but I’m surprised by how quickly they have started to grow, with most markets having either matched their historic highs or getting close to it – even in the face of very high borrowing costs. In 2024, I expect prices to match or exceed their 2022 highs in the vast majority of metro areas across the country.

6. New construction will gain market share

Although new construction remains tepid, builders are benefiting from the lack of supply in the resale market and are taking a greater share of listings. While this might sound like a positive for builders, it’s coming at a cost through lower list prices and increased incentives such as mortgage rate buy downs. Although material costs have softened, it will remain very hard for builders to deliver enough housing to meet the demand.

7. Housing affordability will get worse

With home prices continuing to rise and the pace of borrowing costs far exceeding income growth, affordability will likely erode further in 2024. For affordability to improve, it would require either a significant drop in home values, a significant drop in mortgage rates, a significant increase in household incomes, or some combination of the three. But I’m afraid this is very unlikely. First-time home buyers will be the hardest hit by this continued lack of affordable housing.

8. Government needs to continue taking housing seriously

The government has started to take housing and affordability more seriously, with several states already having adopted new land use policies aimed at releasing developable land. In 2024, I hope cities and counties will continue to ease their restrictive land use policies. I also hope they’ll continue to streamline the permitting process and reduce the fees that are charged to builders, as these costs are passed directly onto the home buyer, which further impacts affordability.

9. Foreclosure activity won’t impact the market

Many expected that the end of forbearance would bring a veritable tsunami of homes to market, but that didn’t happen. At its peak, almost 1-in-10 homes in America were in the program, but that has fallen to below 1%. That said, foreclosure starts have picked up, but still remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Look for delinquency levels to continue rising in 2024, but they will only be returning to the long-term average and are not a cause for concern.

10. Sales will rise but remain the lowest in 15 years

2023 will likely be remembered as the year when home sales were the lowest since the housing bubble burst in 2008. I expect the number of homes for sale to improve modestly in 2024 which, combined with mortgage rates trending lower, should result in about 4.4 million home sales. Ultimately though, demand exceeding supply will mean that sellers will still have the upper hand.

About Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Living • November 30, 2023

5 Ways to Save and Reuse Water at Home

by Phillipa Leseberg

SOURCE: Windermere

5 Ways to Save and Reuse Water at Home

Think of all the ways you use water at home. Whether it’s meal preparation, laundry, or doing the dishes, we use a lot of H2O. In fact, the average U.S. household uses more than 300 gallons of water per day, with a majority of the water usage coming from three primary sources: the toilet, the shower, and the faucet. But there’s good news! Adopting more sustainable practices at home can cut down on wasted water and can save you money on your utility bills. Let’s take a look at some simple ways to use water more efficiently at home.

5 Ways to Save and Reuse Water at Home

1. Reuse Drinking Water

Dumping half a water bottle down the sink may not seem like a significant waste, but over time, discarding extra drinking water adds up. Use water from bottles and glasses to water plants or rinse a plate with it and give the kitchen faucet a rest. Water purifiers can help cut down on the amount of bottled water you purchase and ensure that you have a healthy water source available at all times.

2. Water Plants with Leftover Water

It takes a lot of water to get your pasta just right, or to wash your fruits and vegetables enough so they taste as fresh as possible. Can all this water go somewhere? Fortunately, yes! Reuse that pot full of pasta water to quench your plants in the garden. Collect the water used to wash your produce and shower your house plants with it. Instead of just pouring excess water down the drain and letting it go to waste, little methods like these give it a purpose.

3. Use Barrels to Collect Rainwater

Check local regulations before setting up a rain barrel to collect runoff from your gutters. But once you have the green light, you’ll be surprised at how quickly your rain barrels will fill up, especially if you live in a rainy climate. Remember that water can get very heavy very quickly. It’s important to support your rain barrel with a solid foundation, using patio pavers, plywood, or cinder blocks to prop it up and make it easy to access the spout. And don’t forget to empty it before the freezing temperatures arrive.

4. Energy Star Appliances

Appliances are the true workhorses in a home, making our lives easier with how efficiently they tackle some of the most common household chores. However, some appliances are more efficient than others. Energy Star products are more efficient than other home appliances and are also held to a higher standard of efficiency by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Next time you’re shopping for home appliances, look for the Energy Star badge on certified devices. These special products will help you save water with every cycle.

5. Garden Irrigation

Water is the lifeblood of a healthy, thriving garden, but there are ways to use water more efficiently in your garden beds. It starts with the plants you choose for your garden. Plants that are naturally acclimated to your local climate with thrive more easily. Group plants together based on the amount of water they need, so you don’t waste water running from one end of your garden and back with the hose running. Healthy soil is key to proper plant hydration, so it’s worth your energy as a gardener to focus on making your soil as rich and fertile as possible.

SOURCE: Windermere

Design • November 14, 2023

5 Features of Traditional Interior Design

by Phillipa Leseberg

SOURCE: Windermere

5 Features of Traditional Interior Design

There is perhaps no other home décor style as comforting as traditional interior design. Rooted in the masterfully crafted Chippendale and Thomas Sheraton furniture designs and classic Queen Anne colors, traditional décor is one vintage style that stood the test of time. Here are five distinct features of traditional interior design.

5 Features of Traditional Interior Design

1. Dark Wood Finishes

Part of the reason for traditional design’s timeless appeal is its use of woodworking. With woodwork as a foundation, this design style feels classic but not dated. The dark, bold colors resemble the Victorian style, but traditional interiors are simpler and less ornate. The dark tones of the wood create a foundation for a more colorful decorative palette.

2. Traditional Design Color Palette

Traditional design can handle a heavier color palette while still providing comfort. The darker wood tones allow for darker color to be used elsewhere throughout a space, such as dark window coverings. Floral, plain colors, and muted plaids are all common color schemes. Walls are often covered with patterned wallpaper, floral designs, or damask. In terms of designs, traditional interiors pair well with geometrics and small, striking yet understated patterns.

3. Hardwood Flooring

This design style is classic from the floor to the ceiling. You won’t find laminate or tile flooring in the common areas of a home that adheres to the principles of traditional interior design. Complimenting the surrounding woodwork, homes designed in this style have solid hardwood flooring.

4. Traditional Decorations

The decorations used in traditional design help to reinforce its unique, classic-yet-comfortable ambiance. Table lamps and vases are typical of a traditional interior, often displayed in pairs to create symmetry. Though these accessories are bold, they are never too ornate or over-the-top enough to dominate the room.

5. Design Philosophy

Traditional design is calm and orderly. Whereas a more eclectic interior design style may offer more surprises throughout its spaces, a traditional interior is more predictable. Even the textiles used are subtle, with typical materials ranging from cotton and fur to velvet and silk.

SOURCE: Windermere

Market News • Matthew Gardner • October 30, 2023

Q3 2023 Western Washington Real Estate Market

by Phillipa Leseberg

The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

The pace of job growth continues to slow in Western Washington, as the region added only 21,907 new positions over the past 12 months. This represented a growth rate of 1.4%, which was the lowest pace of new jobs added since the pandemic ended.

The regional unemployment rate in August was 5.8%, which was marginally below the 6% rate we saw in the same quarter in 2022. A few smaller counties lost jobs over the past 12 months while King County’s employment levels rose a meager .4%, mainly due to job losses in the technology sector. I’ve said before that I’m not convinced that the U.S. is going to enter a recession; I still stand by that theory. Slowing job growth does not necessarily need to be a precursor to a recession, but I expect that we will see lackluster growth until next spring at the earliest.

Western Washington Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 14,970 homes sold. This was down 22% from the third quarter of 2022 and 1% lower than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Sales fell even as the average number of homes for sale increased 29.5% from the second quarter. This is clearly a sign that significantly higher mortgage rates are having an impact on the market.

❱ Sales fell in all counties except San Juan compared to the third quarter of 2022. They were up in 9 of the 14 counties covered in this report compared to the second quarter of 2023. San Juan, Mason, Grays Harbor, and Whatcom counties saw significant increases.

❱ Pending sales fell 6% compared to the second quarter of this year, suggesting that closings in the upcoming quarter may be lackluster unless mortgage rates fall, which I think is highly unlikely.

A graph showing the annual change in home sales by county in Western Washington from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. San Juan had the least drastic change at 1.3%, while Kitsap had the largest change at -28.7%. Areas like Skagit and King were in the middle at -20.4% and -21% respectively.

Western Washington Home Prices

❱ Prices rose 2.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022 and were .6% higher than in the second quarter of this year. The average home sale price was $776,205.

❱ Compared to the second quarter of this year, sale prices were higher in all counties except Grays Harbor (-.5%), Kitsap (-1.5%), Clallam (-1.6%), Whatcom (-2.6%), and Skagit (-3%).

❱ Compared to the prior year, the pace of price growth slowed in the third quarter. This wasn’t too surprising given that the market was coming off record high
prices in the summer of 2022. But what was surprising was that prices rose over the previous quarter despite the fact that mortgage rates were above 7% for almost the entire quarter.

❱ I don’t expect prices to move far from current levels in the coming months, and they likely won’t rise again until mortgage rates start to fall. When prices do rise, I anticipate that the pace of growth will be far more modest than we have become accustomed to.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Western Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Island and San Juan had percentage changes above 7% and are represented in the corresponding navy color. Lewis and Kitsap Counties were in the 4-6.9% range, King, Jefferson, Thurston, Grays Harbor, and Snohomish were in the 1-3.9% range. Clallam and Pierce were in the -2-0.9% range and Mason, Whatcom, and Skagit were between -5% and -2.1% represented in the light grey color on the map.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices by county in Western Washington from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Pierce County saw the least change with 0.2% increase, and Island saw the biggest increase at 11.8%. Skagit County's home prices decreased 5%.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates continued trending higher in the third quarter of 2023 and are now at levels we have not seen since the fall of 2000. Mortgage rates are tied to the interest rate (yield) on 10-year treasuries, and they move in the opposite direction of the economy. Unfortunately for mortgage rates, the economy remains relatively buoyant, and though inflation is down significantly from its high, it is still elevated. These major factors and many minor ones are pushing Treasury yields higher, which is pushing mortgage rates up. Given the current position of the Federal Reserve, which intends to keep rates “higher for longer,” it is unlikely that home buyers will get much reprieve when it comes to borrowing costs any time soon.

With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from Q3 2021 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q3 2024. In Q3 2023 Mortgage Rates hit 7.04% and Matthew Gardner predicts rates will decrease steadily over the next 4 quarters.

Western Washington Days on Market

❱ It took an average of 32 days for homes to sell in the third quarter of 2023. This was 8 more days than in the same quarter of 2022, but 3 fewer days compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ Snohomish and King counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 19 days to find a buyer. Homes for sale in San Juan County took the longest time to find a buyer (57 days).

❱ All counties except Snohomish saw average days on market rise from the same period in 2022. Market time fell in 9 of the 14 counties compared to the prior quarter.

❱ The greatest fall in market time compared to the second quarter was in San Juan County, where market time fell 23 days.

A bar graph showing the days on market by county for homes in Western Washington in Q3 2023. Snohomish County had the lowest DOM at 19, while San Juan had the highest at 57. Skagit and Mason Counties were in the middle at around 30 days on market.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Although it was good that listing activity rose in the third quarter, it still remains well below levels that can be considered normal. This is unlikely to change anytime soon given that over 86% of Washington homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate below 5% and more than a quarter have rates at or below 3%. There is little incentive for them to sell if they don’t have to.

More germane to me is the disconnect between what homeowners believe their homes are worth and what buyers can afford with mortgage rates in the mid-7% range. Most sellers appear to be getting their asking prices, or very close to it, which reflects their confidence in the market. However, home buyers are being squeezed by multi-decade high borrowing costs.

It is all quite a quandary. However, taking all the factors into consideration, sellers still have the upper hand but not enough to move the needle from the position I put it in last quarter

A speedometer graph indicating a light seller's market in Western Washington for Q3 2023. The meter sits in “seller’s market” but is close to the border of “balanced market.”

Given all the factors discussed above, I have decided to leave the needle in the same position as the last quarter. The market still heavily favors sellers, but if rates rise much further, headwinds will likely increase.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

Market News • Matthew Gardner • October 24, 2023

U.S. Housing Market 2023: Updated Analysis

by Phillipa Leseberg

Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner gives an updated analysis of the U.S. housing market in 2023, using data released by The National Association of REALTORS® on listing activity, home sales, price growth, and more.

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.

U.S. Housing Market 2023

Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. The National Association of REALTORS® released their data on the U.S. housing market in August, and it contained a few things which I found interesting and wanted to share with you.

U.S. Housing Market 2023: Home Prices, Demographics, and More

Listing Activity

A triple line graph showing the inventory of homes for sale in the U.S. from 2000 to 2023, U.S. single-family homes for sale from 2013 to 2023, and U.S. condo/co-op homes for sale from 2013 to 2023. All three graphs show a downward trend from the mid-2010s to 2023.

As you can clearly see here, the number of homes for sale remains at close to historic lows. When adjusted for seasonality, there were just 1.03 million single-family and condominium homes for sale in the month of August, and that’s down 8.3% from a year ago and the second lowest level in 2023. When adjusted for seasonal variations, there were just over 911,000 single-family homes for sale in the month, that’s 15% lower than a year ago and 36% below August of 2019. And the condominium market is not faring any better with just over 123,000 units available for purchase, listing activity was down year-over-year by just over 9%.

Homes for Sale August 2023

A bar graph showing homes for sale in August from 2000 to 2023. Supply topped out in 2006 and 2007 at around nearly 4 million, before declining steadily to 2023, where supply is just over 1 million.

And to give you a little different perspective, this chart shows you the total number of units for sale in the month of August going back more than 20 years and I think it gives a pretty good indication as to how tight the U.S. housing market really is.

Now, we’ve talked before about the reasons why supply is so limited, and the blame is almost totally attributable to mortgage rates with sellers remarkably reluctant to move because that would mean losing the historically low mortgage rate that they currently benefit from. And as the old saying goes, “you can’t buy what’s not for sale,” and this is certainly true in the housing market today.

U.S. Housing Market 2023: Sales Activity

A triple line graph showing existing U.S. home sales from 2000 to 2023, U.S. single-family home sales from 2013 to 2023, and U.S. condo/co-op home sales from 2013 to 2023. All three graphs show a spike between 2020 and 2022 before declining sharply in 2023.

With such limited choice in the marketplace, it’s unsurprising to see home sales having plummeted following the pandemic induced surge we saw in 2021. At an annual sales rate of 4.04 million units, that is only 40,000 more than the low seen this January and we are now holding at levels we haven’t seen since 2010. Interestingly, single-family sales did see a little jump at the start of this year, but they have since pulled back—likely a function of rising financing costs, which were getting close to 7% in June.

But the condominium market, while certainly down significantly, appears to be somewhat more resilient. I find this interesting as we have not seen any palpable increase in listing activity for multifamily units.

Home Sale Prices Off All-Time High

A triple line graph showing the median sale price of U.S. Existing Homes from 2000 to 2023, the median sale price of single-family homes from 2013 to 2023, Median sale price of multifamily homes 2013 to 2023. All three show a gradual increase from 2013 to 2022, a peak in 2022, with the 2023 numbers being just below that peak.

When prices started to fall in the summer of 2022, many expected to see them continue to plunge in a manner similar to that seen following 2007 collapse, but that has certainly not been the case. Sale prices have rebounded and remain remarkably resilient—especially given significantly higher financing costs.

Although we did see a small drop in home prices between June and July of this year, U.S. home prices are only 1.6% below their 2022 peak; they’re up 3.9% year over year; and up by 11.1% from the start of 2023.

Single-family home prices paint a similar picture with prices down by 1.8% from peak; but up 3.7% year over year, and up 11.2% from the start of the year. Interestingly, sale prices in the Northeast were actually 3.5% higher in August than their 2022 peak. And condominium prices are just 0.1% below the high seen in June of last year. Prices are now up 6.2% year over year and are 11.6% higher than we saw at the end of 2022.

Now, of course the data shown here is unlikely to reflect the recent surge in mortgage rates so it will be interesting to see what impact that has not just on sales but sale prices when the September and October data is published.

My intuition suggests that—even with mortgage rates where they are today—as long as they don’t move significantly higher, prices at the national level are unlikely to collapse. But I do see sales volumes pulling back further as listing activity remains very constrained.

Price Growth vs Payment Growth

A double line graph showing price growth vs mortgage payment from Jan 2016 to July 2023. In 2023, mortgage payment growth sits at 26.5% while price growth is at 3.9%.

This chart shows a different way to look at the impact that mortgage rates are having on the market. The dark blue line shows year-over-year home price growth, and the light blue line shows the 12-month change in average mortgage payments.

Although we did see that annual growth in mortgage payments fall to just 10% in June of this year—the first time we have seen that since 2021—it has subsequently jumped back up. This means that a buyer of a median priced house in the U.S. is faced with payments that are 26 and a half percent higher than they were 12 months ago. At the same time, home price growth has stalled.

As I’ve mentioned in several past videos, I find it unlikely that inventory levels will increase significantly in 2023, and I also believe that supply will be constrained next year as well as rates remain at elevated levels.

As we know, it is this lack of inventory that has helped to support home prices; however, there is a breaking point. 10-year bond yields are holding at multi-year highs and do not appear to be thinking of pulling back at any time soon—especially given new bond issuances that the country is going bring to market in order to address our burgeoning debt levels.

And it’s because of this that I now expect to see rates remaining higher for longer, and the question then becomes how much tolerance will buyers have if mortgage rates hold where they are today or if they head closer to 8%.

Although I am not expecting this to happen, it is possible. And if it does, then sales will fall further and the underpinning of price stability will certainly be eroded. And there you have it. As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this subject so feel free to leave your comments below. Until next month, stay safe out there and I’ll see you soon. Bye now.

To see the latest housing data for your area, visit our quarterly Market Updates page.