Market NewsMatthew Gardner January 27, 2022

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2022


This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2022. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market. 

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2022

1. Prices will continue to rise

There are some who believe that U.S. home prices will drop in the coming year given last year’s extremely rapid pace of growth, but I disagree. I don’t expect prices to fall; however, the pace of appreciation will slow significantly, rising by around 6% in 2022 as compared to 16% in 2021 (nationally). As such, agents need to be prepared to explain this new reality to their clients who have become very accustomed to prices spiraling upward. Those days are likely behind us—and it’s not a bad thing!

2. Spring will be busier than expected

The work-from-home paradigm is here to stay for the foreseeable future, and this could lead to increased buyer demand. Many companies have postponed announcing their long-term work-from-home policies due to the shifting COVID-19 variants, but I believe they will soon off er more clarity to their employees. Once this happens, it will likely lead to a new pool of home buyers who want to move to more affordable markets that are further away from their workplaces. I also expect to see more buyers who are driven by the need for a home that is better equipped for long-term remote working.

3. The rise of the suburbs

For a large number of people whose employers will allow them to work from home on an ongoing basis, remote working will not be an all-or-nothing proposition. It will be a blend of working from home and the office. I believe this will lead some buyers to look for homes in areas that are relatively proximate to their office, such as the suburbs or other ex-urban markets, but away from high-density neighborhoods.

4. New construction jumps

I anticipate the cost of building homes to come down a bit this year as inflation finally starts to taper, and this should provide additional stimulus for homebuilders to start construction of more units. Material costs spiked in 2021 with lumber prices alone adding about $36,000 to the price of a new home. This year, I’m hopeful that the supply chain bottlenecks will be fixed, which should cause prices to moderate and result in a drop in building material costs.

5. Zoning issues will be addressed

I’m optimistic that discussions around zoning policies will continue to pick up steam this year. This is because many U.S. legislators now understand that one of the main ways to deal with housing affordability is to increase the supply of land for residential construction. Despite concerns that increased density will lower home values, I believe existing homeowners will actually see their homes rise in value faster because of these policies.

6. Climate change will impact where buyers live

Now that natural disasters are increasing in frequency and climate risk data is starting to become more readily available, get ready for home buyers to require information from their agents about these risks and their associated costs. Specifically, buyers will want to know about an area’s flood and fire risks and how they might impact their insurance costs and/or their mortgage rate.

7. Urban markets will bounce back

While increased working from home can, and will, raise housing demand in areas farther away from city centers, it may not necessarily mean less demand for living in cities. In fact, some urban neighborhoods that were once only convenient to a subset of commuters may now be considered highly desirable and accessible to a larger set of potential home buyers. At the same time, this could be a problem for some distressed urban neighborhoods where proximity to employment centers may have been their best asset.

8. A resurgence in foreign investors

Foreign buyers have been sitting on the sidelines since the pandemic began, but they started to look again when the travel ban was lifted in November 2021. Recently, the rise of the Omicron variant has halted their buying activity, but if our borders remain open, I fully expect foreign buyer demand to rise significantly in 2022. Keep in mind, foreign buyers were still buying homes sight unseen even when they were unable to enter the country, and this will likely still be the case if borders are closed again.

9. First-time buyers will be an even bigger factor in 2022

Once remote working policies are clearer, we should see increased demand by first-time buyers who currently rent. In 2022, 4.8 million millennials will turn 30, which is the median age of first-time buyers in the U.S. An additional 9.4 million will turn 28 or 29 in the coming year. I believe this group is likely to contemplate buying sooner than expected if they can continue working from home in some capacity. Doing so would allow them to buy in outlying markets where homes are more affordable.

10. Forbearance will come to an end

Forbearance was a well-thought-out program to keep people in their homes during the height of the pandemic. Some predicted this would lead to a wave of foreclosures that would hurt the housing market, but this has not been the case. In fact, there are now fewer than 900,000 U.S. homeowners in forbearance, down from its May 2020 peak of almost 4.8 million, and this number will continue to shrink. That said, there will likely be a moderate increase in foreclosure activity in 2022, but most homeowners in this situation will sell in order to meet their financial obligations rather than have their home repossessed.

BuyerSelling January 23, 2022

What are Closing Costs?

The closing process in a real estate transaction finalizes the terms of an agreement between the buyer and seller, leading to the transfer of the property’s title. This step of the buying/selling process comes with its own set of costs. Before a buyer can hold the keys to their new home, and before a seller can celebrate the sale of their property, closing costs must be paid.

What are closing costs?

The term “closing costs” refers to the various expenses, taxes, and fees paid by both the buyer and the seller to finalize a real estate transaction. The purchase agreement—signed by both parties—will dictate the terms of how the closing costs are paid, but there are some standards about who pays what.

In general, buyers can expect to pay about 2-5% of the total purchase price in closing costs, while sellers’ costs can range anywhere from about 6-10%; the difference being that buyers are using extra cash to pay for their closing costs while the amount sellers owe is typically deducted from the proceeds of the sale of their home. Note—these percentages may vary depending on property taxes, insurance rates, and other factors involved in the transaction.

Closing Costs for Buyers

Typical mortgage-related closing costs for buyers include an application fee, an underwriting fee, and prepaid interest (the accrued interest cost between your settlement date and first monthly payment). If you make less that a 20% down payment on the home, you can expect to pay your lender for private mortgage insurance (PMI), as well.

Two main property-related closing costs for buyers are the appraisal and the home inspection. Lenders will require an appraisal to double-check that the value of the property matches your mortgage loan amount, which will typically cost you a few hundred dollars. A home inspection provides the buyer with a clear understanding of the home’s condition and what repairs need to be made, either in the future or before closing. In competitive markets (a seller’s market), it’s more common for sellers to conduct pre-listing inspections and for buyers to waive the inspection contingency to make their offer more appealing. Buyers will also pay a variety of title, insurance, attorney, escrow, and property tax fees to finalize the home purchase. Usually, your lender will require you to purchase homeowners insurance before settlement to protect against insured disasters that may occur on the property.

These are just some of the costs inherent in the closing process for buyers, which are a fraction of the total costs of buying a home. Working with a Buyer’s Agent will help you stay organized as you navigate through these crucial final steps of your home purchase.

 

A young man and woman shake hands with their real estate agent at their kitchen table.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: PeopleImages

 

Closing Costs for Sellers

The seller will pay the agent commissions on the sale, typically to both the buyer’s agent and the listing agent. Agent commissions usually come in at around 4-6% of the sale price of the home. Other closing costs for sellers may include attorney fees, title insurance, a transfer tax, and the home’s property taxes for the current year if they have not yet been paid. The terms of the agreement will spell out what the seller is additionally responsible for, including HOA fees if applicable and any escrow money promised to the buyer.

Typically, escrow fees are shared between the buyer and seller, which cover the costs of distributing the funds involved in the transaction. In buyer’s markets, it’s more common for sellers to agree to pay for a portion of the closing costs—what is known as “seller concessions.” A common example of a seller concession is when the seller agrees to pay for repairs discovered during the buyer’s home inspection.

 

So, whether you’re buying or selling a home, it’s important to remember that a series of fees and payments must be completed to finalize the transaction.

BuyerBuyingLivingLocal NewsMarket NewsSellingW Report January 19, 2022

W Report – January 2022

Windermere Community January 10, 2022

Windermere Foundation 2021 Year in Review

For the Windermere Foundation, 2021 was a year of milestones. Windermere owners, staff, and agents stepped up to support their communities in a variety of ways. Their collective efforts helped to raise over $2.5 million in 2021 for low-income and homeless families, bringing the Foundation’s grand total to over $45 million in donations since 1989.

Windermere Foundation 2021 Year in Review

Early 2021

The year got off to a quick start. Windermere offices showed an outpouring of support in their communities, raising nearly $500,000 by the end of March. The Windermere Lane County office in Eugene, Oregon was highly active, raising money for a host of local organizations dedicated to supporting local children who are in crisis due to neglect, abuse, poverty, or homelessness. The office also collected donations for Florence Food Share and Food for Lane County, two local non-profits working to solve hunger issues in the community. All in all, the Lane County office’s donations totaled over $10,000.

Community Service Day

In June, Windermere celebrated its 37th annual Community Service Day, a tradition since 1984 in which our agents, staff, and franchise owners spend the day volunteering in their communities to complete neighborhood improvement projects. The Windermere Pinole and Diablo Realty offices joined together to support the Food Bank of Contra Costa & Solano by working in their warehouse to help bag produce. The offices were able to gather $2,850 in donations, which empowered The Food Bank to deliver 5,700 meals to the local community. The Park City office also made an impact with a local food health organization, EATS Park City, by donating $5,000 to help EATS in their mission to promote nutrition advocacy in the area.

These are just a couple examples of the impact last year’s Community Service Day had throughout the Windermere footprint. By the end of June, the Foundation surpassed $1 million in donations for 2021.

 

A group of people wearing sanitary masks stand together in a food bank warehouse holding a donation check.

Pictured: Scott Tuffnell, Denise Ramirez, Mike Rowland, Renee Rowland, Diane Cockrell, Mona Logasa, Dave Nardi, Ellen Osmundson, Jim Georgantes, Tina Rowland, Jacob Cardinale, Nicolars Ramirez, Luis Ramirez-Agudelo, George Gross, John Kula, Carol Nasser, Neil Zarchin (Food Drive Administrator – Food Bank of Contra Costa and Solano) – Image Source: Windermere Rowland Realty – California

 

Late 2021

Windermere agents, staff, and owners continued to give back to their communities through the summer and fall, eventually passing $1.5 million raised in 2021 by September’s end. Here are a few highlights from the final months of the year.

UW Certificate Scholarship Program

The UW Certificate Scholarship program is part of Windermere’s commitment to better serve and support students of color, especially Black and Hispanic students, who have been impacted by systemic racial inequities. Since it was introduced in 2019, the scholarship program has given a total of $41,000 to scholars to date.

Gina, a 2021 scholar, was able to complete the UW Certificate in Data Visualization with her scholarship from Windermere. Originally from Colombia, Gina moved to the U.S. ten years ago. She eventually found work as a nanny but was laid off in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Gina knew she needed to find a stable career to help support her family and wanted to put her data visualization skills to work. Gina was hired as an Attendance Specialist with her local school district. “Now, you may wonder how an Attendance Specialist can contribute if she has data visualization skills,” she said. “I was a little skeptical at first, but as I started learning more about data, I started connecting the dots. I started collecting data on the reason why the students were not making it to classes and tracking down the kids that needed extra attention.” Gina began making weekly analyses and data visualizations for her team and was soon helping the district connect with students they hadn’t been able to reach for six months. “I can’t thank you enough for this great opportunity,” she said of the UW Certificate Scholarship. “I have helped my community, grown as a professional, and feel empowered as a mom and as a brown woman.”

The Windermere Foundation plans to expand the UW Certificate Scholarship program in the future to help more Black, Indigenous, or People of Color (BIPOC) adult learners.

 

A selfie of a young man and woman and their two kids outside.

2021 UW Certificate Scholar Gina (top left) with her family. Image Source: Gina / Jo Gubas—University of Washington

 

Windermere Sand Point / Lake Oswego West / Fort Collins /

The following Windermere offices didn’t let up in their community efforts during the final weeks of 2021. Windermere Sand Point looked no further than their local elementary school, Sand Point Elementary, when deciding how they could make an impact during the holiday season. The Sand Point office donated $3,000 to the school, which will help to provide low-income students and their families with clothing, shoes, food assistance, and payment aid for after school activities.

The Windermere Lake Oswego West office makes it a point to support Transition Projects annually in any way they can. Transition Projects engages with the local homeless population to support them on their journey out of homelessness while delivering lifesaving and life-changing assistance. In early December, the Lake Oswego West office donated $3,500 to Transition Projects.

Windermere Fort Collins has close ties to ChildSafe Colorado, a local organization that provides therapy for victims of childhood abuse. One of their agents had a personal experience with ChildSafe and couldn’t thank them enough for all they did for their family. The office has rallied to support the organization, as they are unable to provide their services without donations. The Northern Colorado office hosted a tailgate party fundraiser, collecting donations from agents and the public. All in all, they were able to donate $4,000 to ChildSafe in November.

 

A woman in the foreground holds a basket of donated items and a man in a football jersey behind her carries some items.

Pictured L to R: Suzanne Ekeler, Eric Thompson – Image Source: Natalie Parsons, Windermere Fort Collins

 

To learn more about the Windermere Foundation, visit windermerefoundation.com.

Living December 27, 2021

Tips for Home: Extend the Life of Your Mattress

All furniture has a shelf life, and your mattress is no different. Whether you sleep on a spring or memory foam mattress, the more proactive you can be about maintaining it, the better your chances of experiencing healthy, regular sleep. With a few simple tasks you can extend the life of your mattress and wake up every day feeling refreshed.

Extend the Life of Your Mattress

1. Clean Your Mattress Regularly

A clean mattress is the key to healthy sleep. Clean your mattress regularly according to the manufacturer’s instructions. Certain home cleaning supplies such as baking soda and essential oils can help to cleanse your mattress’s fabric, but they may be harmful to certain foam types. Vacuum before you clean to rid your mattress of dust and dirt using the attachment designed for cleaning upholstery. If your pets like to snuggle up in bed, you can count on their hair and fur getting trapped in your linens, so you may want to consider vacuuming more frequently to make sure everyone can sleep soundly.

2. Rotate Every Six Months

After laying in the same spot night after night, your mattress will begin to form to your body. Rotating your mattress every three-to-six months will give it a chance to refresh its structure and provide additional support. By simply flipping the foot end of the bed around to where you lay your head, it will feel like you’ve bought a brand-new mattress.

 

An olive-green bedspread in a chic bedroom.

Image Source: Shutterstock – Image Credit: New Africa

 

3. Use a Mattress Protector

Mattress protectors help to keep your bed as clean as possible by limiting damage caused by spills while keeping dust mites, sweat, dander, and pet hair/fur off your mattress. Made from organic cotton, organic mattress protectors are typically hypoallergenic and waterproof. They are helpful sleep aids for people with sensitivities to allergens and chemicals.

4. Support Your Mattress

Not properly supporting your mattress is a recipe for unhealthy sleep and a short lifespan for your bed. Check the manufacturer’s instructions to see if your mattress is meant to be coupled with a box spring, and if not, what kind of underneath support is required, given your mattress’s type and weight. Insufficient support can not only damage your bed but can also lead to physical complications such as soreness and back pain.

5. Handle Your Mattress with Care When Moving

During the moving process, the bed is often the center of attention. Large and clumsy, mattresses can be frustrating to maneuver from your bedroom to a moving vehicle. Fabric can easily be torn when navigating around corners, up and down stairs, through hallways, and sometimes even out of windows. Always work with a partner when moving your mattress or let the professionals handle it if you’re hiring a moving company. If you’re too hasty about getting it moved, you can easily damage it to the point where you’ll need to make a replacement.

BuyerBuyingLivingLocal NewsSellingW Report December 17, 2021

W Report – December 2021

BuyingLivingSelling December 13, 2021

Make Your Move

Moving is stressful, whether it is across town or cross-country.  Once you have closed on your house, the reality of packing, moving, and setting up a new home can become overwhelming. While no list can make a move “stress-free,” planning ahead and staying organized can help make your move a little smoother. Here is our list of tips:

Getting Started

Once you know your prospective move date set up a quick timeline to make sure you can get all the important tasks done and ready in time for your move.

Consider how much stuff you have by doing a home inventory. This can help you decide whether you need to hire movers to help you or if you will be managing your move on your own. Many moving companies supply inventory lists to help you assess the size of truck you will need.  You can use your list as double duty for insurance purposes later.

As soon as you decide how you will be moving, make your reservations. In general, moving companies and truck rental services are over-booked at the beginning and very end of the month.  If you are planning on hiring a moving company, contact a few in your area for a price quote. To find companies ask your real estate agent, family, or friends, and consult online reviews.  It is also a good idea to request a quote and compare companies.

Preparing for Your Move

  • Moving is a great opportunity to get rid of clutter, junk, or outdated items. Set aside some time to sort through your closets, storage spaces, files, drawers, and more.  Go through cluttered areas and organize items by “keepers”, “give-aways” and “garbage”. You will have less to pack and an opportunity to update after you move. Contact a local nonprofit organization for your donations; some will arrange to pick up larger donations like furniture. If you have items of value, eBay or craigslist are good options.
  • Changing your address is one of the more tedious tasks in the moving process. You will need to change your address with the United States Post Office. You can find the online form here: Movers Guide.

You will also need to change your address with each account you have. Here is a list to get your started:

  • Employers
  • Bank(s)
  • Utilities (Electric, Water/Sewage, Oil/Gas)
  • Cable/ Telephone
  • Cell phone service
  • Credit Cards
  • Magazine subscriptions
  • Insurance companies (auto, home/renters, health, dental, vision, etc.)
  • Pharmacy
  • Other personal services

Let the Packing Begin

Before you start packing, it may help to visualize where everything you have will go. Perhaps furniture will fit better in a different room? Consider the floor plan of your new home and figure out what will go where. This will aid in packing and labeling as you box everything up.

Use a tool like floorplanner.com to plan where furniture and items will go.

When it comes to packing you have some options. You can work with a service that provides reusable boxes for moving or you can reuse or purchase cardboard boxes.  Make sure you have enough boxes, packing tape, dark markers, and packing paper.

Pack rooms according to your floor plan. Label boxes with contents and room. This will make it easier to unpack your home, knowing where everything is going.

Real Simple magazine has some great tips on packing for your move.

If you have to disassemble any of your furniture, make sure you keep all the parts and directions together. Make sure you set aside your necessities for the day you move. Being tired and unable to take a shower or make your bed can be hard at the end of a long moving day. Here are some ideas of what you may like to pack in your “day-of-move” boxes:

  • Clean linens for the beds, pillows and blankets
  • Clean towels
  • Shower curtain, liner and hooks
  • Toiletries, hand soap, tooth brush, etc.
  • Disposable utensils, cups, napkins, etc
  • Rolls of toilet paper
  • Snacks and water
  • Change of clothes
  • Tools for reassembling furniture, installing hardware, and hanging photos

Making Your Move

  • Come up with a game plan with your family, so everyone has a role and a part to play
  • Once the house is empty, do a once over on your old place to make sure it is clean for the next owners/occupants. Here is a useful checklist for cleaning.

Warming Your New Home

Once you have settled into your new home, warm it up by inviting friends and family over to celebrate. Here is a great infographic about housewarming traditions and symbolism. Announce your move to far-away friends and family through moving announcements to make sure you stay on the holiday card mailing list.

Design December 5, 2021

How to Upgrade Your Dining Room

The dining room is a place of gathering, comfort, and community. Creating the right mood in the space is a matter of choices in décor and design. For example, a traditional dining room creates a heartwarming tone whereas a modern one feels minimalist and light. Homeowners can often feel puzzled when trying to upgrade their dining room, since it typically isn’t as simple as buying new appliances or green-lighting a remodeling project. Here are some simple ideas to help you upgrade your dining room and achieve the atmosphere you’re looking for.

How to Upgrade Your Dining Room

Lighting

A light fixture is often the centerpiece of a dining room. Your choice in lighting can greatly reinforce the dining room theme you’re going for, so look for fixtures that reinforce the other elements of the space. A chandelier will add a formal touch to the room, while more modern fixtures like pendant and warehouse lights can deliver a sense of chic sophistication. If you plan to hang a chandelier, keep in mind that the bottom of the fixture should hang roughly three feet above the dining room table. If you have vaulted ceilings, it should hang even higher.

Flooring

A full dining room upgrade happens from the ground up. If your flooring is outdated or showing signs of wear and tear, it’s the perfect time to add a flooring upgrade to your project list. Choosing the right flooring is a matter of identifying what material will work best in the space, assessing your budget, and forming a plan for installation. Materials like vinyl, ceramic tile, and hardwood are popular options, not only for their durability, but also because they’re easy to clean. Other niche options like cork or concrete can help create a specific ambience but may not be as widely available. Once you’ve decided on your material, talk to local contractors to compare installation quotes. There are pros and cons to installing flooring on your own or hiring a professional; know what they are before making a final decision.

 

A dining room with hardwood floors, black chairs, and a black table.

Image Source: Shutterstock – Image Credit: Artazum

Table & Chairs

When it comes down to it, the essential function of your dining room is to provide a setting for enjoying a meal. Together with your main lighting fixture, your table and chairs help to form the focal point of the room. Size is a critical component of your dining room table. There’s a Goldilocks dynamic with dining room tables. The larger the table, the more room everyone has, but the more space it takes up. Make sure to take exact measurements before shopping around so you know exactly what size you’re looking for.

Your chairs will reinforce the look and feel of your table. Consider balancing wood grains and matching colors. For example, if your dining room table is designed with intricate wood grain, look at chair sets with simple colors and designs to bring balance to the room. When it comes to the height of the seats, arms, and back, choose dimensions that suit the dining experience you’re looking to create. Generally, high-backed, narrower chairs create a more formal atmosphere than their rounded, modern counterparts. Either way, choose the combination that looks best to you and feels most comfortable.

 

Image Source: Shutterstock – Image Credit: JR-stock

Color & Décor

A fresh coat of paint can take a dining room from stale to lively in a hurry. If you’re thinking about painting your dining room, think about how the color scheme would complement and/or contrast with the colors elsewhere in your home. A contrasting color will help differentiate the space, while a complimenting color will help to tie things together. New color in the dining room doesn’t have to come exclusively from painting a wall. Colored furniture pieces, decorative throw pillows, placemats, and table décor can help liven the space as well. Curtains and drapes can add a splash of color while softening the room, and when paired together with a decorative rug, can make your colors pop at different eye levels.

BuyerBuyingDesignLivingLocal NewsMarket News December 2, 2021

W Report – November 2021

W Report by Windermere
W Report October 2021

[THE STATE OF] REAL ESTATE

Regional Housing Market News
As we come to the end of the year, the housing market has slowed a bit in the traditional winter slump. However, for sellers wanting to list ahead of the holidays, low inventory still gives them the advantage.
2022 Housing Market Forecast
Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner applies his insight to the state of the economy and housing market to forecast trends and conditions for the year ahead.
Windermere Partners with HomeSight for New Down Payment Assistance Fund
Windermere is working to address housing inequities with a new down payment assistance fund for underserved Black homebuyers.

LOCAL ECONOMY

2022 Economic Forecast
Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner uses current data to forecast national trends in economic activity, including job recovery and inflation, for the year to come.

Washington State Leads the Nation in Wage Growth 

It pays to live in the Evergreen State. The average salary here increased by the highest percentage in the country since 2010.

PIN [SPIRATION]

A large kitchen decorated for the holidays Pumpkins in a tablescape
Close up candles on a table Tall candles on a table
With the holiday season upon us, it’s time to get ready to host friends and family for a variety of celebrations. We’ve created this Pinterest board featuring Homes for Hosting to inspire you to get in the mood for entertaining, despite the cleanup afterwards.

ARCHI [TECH]

A 747 will park inside a new high-rise in Seattle
A Decommissioned 747 Will Feature in a New High Rise Development
A new mixed-use development in Seattle will include an eye-catching 747 in its design. The decommissioned plane will eventually be home to office space and occasional public exhibits, while providing a new landmark in the city.

LOCAL HAPPENINGS

Creative Ways to Enjoy the Season
Creative Ways to Enjoy the Season
Shorter days don’t have to keep you cooped up at home. We’ve rounded up three creative events to engage your artistic side while you spend time with loved ones this season.
Market NewsMatthew Gardner November 28, 2021

11/15/2021 Housing and Economic Update from Matthew Gardner

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market. 

 


Hello there!  I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, and welcome to the latest episode of Mondays with Matthew.

Before I get started, I wanted to let you know that this will be the final episode of Monday with Matthew for 2021 as I’m going to be taking Christmas off. So it’s time to offer you my forecasts for the U.S. economy and the country’s housing market in 2022.

Although many people – including myself – had hoped that COVID-19 would have become a somewhat distant memory by now, and that the economy would have recovered this was – sadly – not to be the case, and the pandemic’s influence on the economy is still being felt and all the datasets I track tell me that, although we are certainly healing, COVID continues to act as a drag on economic growth and I expect that to continue through the spring of next year – if not a little longer.

Economic Recovery & Growth

And it’s because of this that I – along with many other economists – have spent the last few months lowering our forecasts for economic growth – at least through the middle of 2022. So, let’s look at this a little closer.

 

A slide of two bar graphs. The bar graph on the left is titled "United States Real Gross Domestic Product," showing Q1 2020 through Q4 2022 on the x-axis and negative 40 percent to 40 percent on the y-axis. The low GDP was in Q2 2020 around negative 30 percent and the high was Q3 2020 at over 30 percent. The second graph is title "U.S. Rea; Gross Domestic Product History & Forecast," showing the years 2015 through 2022 on the x-axis and negative 4 percent through 6 percent on the y-axis. The lowest annual percentage change was negative 3.4 percent in 2020 and the highest was 4.9 percent in 2021.

 

Here is my forecast for economic growth through the end of next year and you will note that, even though I am cautious in regard to the economy as we move through the winter and into 2022, I am still expecting to see a fairly decent bounce back in the fourth quarter of this year following the very disappointing rate that we saw in Q-3.

And on an annualized basis, I believe that the economy will have expanded by just shy of 5% this year and come in a little below 4% in 2022.

Simply put, the impacts of COVID-19 are going to continue to act as a drag on virus sensitive consumer services next year and ongoing supply chain issues will also delay inventory restocking. Both of these impacts have a depressing effect, in more ways than one, on economic growth, but I don’t see any chance that we will fall back into a recession.

 

A bar graph titled "Non-Farm Payrolls: Average Monthly Change & Forecast," with Q4 2019 through Q4 2022 on the x-axis and figures in the thousands from negative 5,000 to 2,000 on the y-axis. The low was negative 4,333 on Q2 2020 and the high was 1,342 in Q3 2020.

 

Looking at the employment picture this chart shows my forecast for average monthly growth in jobs during a quarter and to give you some context, over the last decade or so the country has added an average of around 200,000 jobs per month during any one quarter and my forecast is for more robust employment growth as we move through 2022 and, if correct, I expect to see the country return to pre-COVID employment levels in the second half of the year.

 

A bar graph titled "U.S. Unemployment Rate & Forecast," showing January 2020 to Q4 2022 on the x-axis and percentage figures on the y-axis, from 2% to 16%. The high was close to 15 percent in April 2020 and the low was just over 3 percent in January and February 2020.

 

And with jobs continuing to return I’m looking for the unemployment rate to continue trending lower and breaking south of 4% during the final quarter of the year. With the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits – in concert with wages rising significantly in many face-to-face industries such as leisure and hospitality – prospects for people currently unemployed are looking rather good. That said, there are still millions of unemployed Americans who are not looking for work even with wages rising, the labor force still down by 3 million from its pre-pandemic peak, and this is worrying as businesses continue to have a hard time finding employees which raises the expectation that inflation will remain higher for longer than I would have liked to see.

Measures of Inflation

And that leads nicely into my final economic forecast and that is my outlook for inflation. As we have discussed, supply chain issues and labor shortages have increased prices significantly and this top chart shows annual changes in all consumer prices which I expect to remain around 5% until next spring, before gradually dropping down to below 3% by the end of the year.

 

A slide titled "Measures of Inflation" with two line graphs. One is titled "Consumer Prices" and shows the percentage changes on the y-axis and the quarters from Q4 2018 to Q4 2022 on the x-axis. It shows an expected drop from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. The "Core Consumer Prices" graphs showing the same measurements on each axis. It shows an expected increase in core consumer prices in Q1 2022 followed by an expected drop toward Q4 2022.

 

But the core inflation rate – which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors – won’t peak until early next year before it too starts to gradually pull back and, at these levels, the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly have started to raise interest rates to counteract inflationary pressures. This is not pretty, but I absolutely do not believe that we are in some sort of inflationary spiral, or that “stagflation” will raise its ugly head again.

U.S. Housing Market

Okay! Now it’s time to turn our attention to the U.S. housing market which was a beacon of hope during the pandemic period and, given the massive spike in demand that started last June, I’m looking for a little more than 6 million existing homes will have changed hands in 2021, but I don’t see this level increasing in 2022 – mainly due to ongoing supply limitations as well as rising affordability issues, and I’m therefore forecasting sales to pull back  – albeit very modestly – next year. That said, the country has never seen more than 6 million home selling in a single year since records were first kept so the number is still very impressive.

 

A slide titled "Solid Growth This Year & Next" with a bar graph titled "U.S. Existing Home Sales w/ Forecast." It shows the existing home sales in millions every year from 2021 to 2022. 2021 and 2022 have the highest figures on the graph, at 6.02 and 5.98 million respectively.

 

And with the market as tight as it has been so far this year, it shouldn’t be any surprise to see median sale prices skyrocketing and, even though we have 3 more months of sales data yet to be released, I still anticipate prices will have risen by almost 16 and a half % in 2021- a quite remarkable number. This pace of appreciation has never been seen before. In fact, the closest was back in 2005 – when the housing bubble was inflating rapidly – but even then, prices only rose by 12.2%.

 

A slide titled " Sales Prices Slow in 2022," with a bar graph titled "U.S. Median Sale Price of Existing Homes & Forecast," which shows the annual percentage change of single-family and multifamily units for the years 2012 through 2022. The highest figure is 16.4 percent in 2021, whereas the lowest in both in 2018 and 2019 at 4.9 percent.

 

But, as I mentioned in my sales forecast, this pace of growth is unsustainable and I am expecting to see some of the heat to come off the market next year but, a growth rate of 7.3% is certainly nothing to sniff at.

There are three major reasons why we will see the pace of growth slow. I have already mentioned my concerns regarding housing affordability, but mortgage rates and new supply will both influence the slowdown in sales and price growth in the resale arena.

 

A slide titled "Mortgage Rates Will Remain Favorable" with a bar graph titled "Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate History & Forecast." It shows a predicted increase mortgage rates from Q4 2021 at 3.13 percent to 3.78 percent in Q4 2022.

 

Although I do not prepare a forecast for housing affordability, this is my where I expect to see mortgage rates through the end of next year and I am looking for them to continue “stair-stepping” higher but still ending 2022 below 4% – very low by historic standards given that the long-term average for a conventional 30-year mortgage is somewhere around 7 1/2%.

Obviously, as rates notch higher that starts to compress price growth as it puts a lower ceiling on how much a buyer can afford to pay for a home.

 

A slide titled "New Home Starts Pick Up," with a bar graph titled "Single-Family Housing Starts w/ Forecast." The graph shows the housing starts in the thousands for the years 2012 through 2022. There is a gradual increase, from 535,000 in 2012 to an expected figure of over 1.2 million in 2022.

 

And slowing growth in existing home prices and sales will also be a function of additional supply and this chart shows my forecast for single-family starts this year and next. I expect more than a million homes to start construction in 2022 – continuing the trend that started in mid-2020 – but I am sure that some of you may be asking yourselves that if starts are already robust, how have existing home sales been able to increase so significantly if there has been solid supply coming from homebuilders – and that would be a great question.

And I would answer this by telling you that the way the Census gathers data on start is to count the number of home foundations that have been poured, but vertical construction has not necessarily started. And what we have been seeing is a lot of foundations but not so many homes actually being built – and we know this by looking at the number of homes that are for sale but have yet to be started. So, it’s important to look at a separate number that the Census Bureau also puts out which counts the number of units actually under construction, and that number has been growing significantly over the course of the last 18 months or so.

 

A slide titled "Growth Picks Up in 2022," with a bar graph titled "U.S. Single Family New Home Sales with Forecast." The graph shows the new home sales in thousands for the years 2012 through 2022. Sales were at a low of 368,000 in 2012, jumped to 835,000 in 2020, and are predicted to peak at 927,000 in 2022.

 

Builders have been hamstrung with rising labor and material costs which will lead new home sales this year to fall below the number seen in 2020; however, I do expect this to pick up significantly next year and my current forecast calls for 927,000 new homes to be sold in 2022.

So, there you have it, my economic and housing market forecast for 2022.

Of course, there are still a number of variables that could lead me to revise this forecast but, as an old economics professor of mine used to tell me, “Gardner, forecast well, but forecast often!”

If everything goes according to my plan, you should expect to see the housing market start to move towards some sort of balance next year, but I am afraid that it will still remain out of equilibrium until at least 2023.

And if you’re wondering, no, I don’t see a housing bubble forming and I’m also not at all concerned about homeowners currently in forbearance, but it would be silly to say that there aren’t any issues in the housing market that concern me because there are and the biggest of which is housing affordability and this will have a significant impact on the millennial generation who are continuing to get older, and they are all – well most – thinking about settling down and, possibly, having children, and I wonder how hard it will be for many of them to be able to afford to buy their first home because most really do want to become homeowners. Will builders figure out how to build to this massive pent-up demand? I guarantee you that whoever can solve this puzzle will do very, very well.

COVID-19 caused an unparalleled shock to the US economy and the rise of the delta variant has certainly impacted the speed of our recovery but, rest assured, this particular forecaster firmly believes that we will recover and that the economy will continue to grow.

Demand for ownership housing remains remarkably buoyant and, in fact, it is quite likely that demand may actually increase with the work from home paradigm that will start to gain momentum next year. It will be fascinating to watch how this impacts not just demand, but where these buyers will ultimately choose to live.