Design March 21, 2023

5 Features of Mid-Century Modern Interior Design

Few interior design styles have captivated our imaginations like mid-century modern. Though the mid-century modern movement began to impact design culture many decades ago, we still see its lasting impact today. This vintage style remains popular for homeowners everywhere and shows no signs of slowing down. To aid your home décor efforts, let’s dig a bit deeper into what makes mid-century modern so special.

What is mid-century modern interior design?

The mid-century modern movement came to define graphic design, architecture, product development, and interior design in the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. Its emphasis on simplicity was a direct reaction to the more opulent styles that preceded it, heralding a shift in suburban home life. Here are a few of its signature features.

 

A mid-century modern living room with an open credenza containing cameras and books, a comfortable yellow chair with wooden peg legs, a small minimalist table, and several house plants. The colors of the furniture and plants pop against the white walls and white sheer curtains.

Image Source: Shutterstock – Image Credit: Ground Picture

 

5 Features of Mid-Century Modern Interior Design

1. Minimalism

Both mid-century modern architecture and interior design live by the maxim “less is more.” With minimal decoration, the space between objects is emphasized, giving interiors a fresh and clean look. Straight lines are a tenet of this design style, reflected in the signature pieces of the era, such as the Eames chair (pictured below). This minimalist approach to interior design maximizes each object by removing all unnecessary elements.

 

A leather Eames chair in a modern brick loft apartment with hardwood floors, an open kitchen/dining room area, and a large bookshelf decorated with accent items and house plants.

Image Source: Shutterstock – Image Credit: Karen Culp

 

2. Combining Outdoor and Indoor

The minds behind the mid-century modern movement prioritized nature and questioned how interiors could interact with the outside world. Nowadays, it’s common for homeowners incorporating this style to decorate with house plants, but the harmony with nature extends further into home design with such elements as stone materials, exposed wood beams, and floor-to-ceiling windows to maximize natural light.

3. Mid-Century Modern Color Scheme

If you’re a fan of decorating with a neutral color palette, this style is perfect for your home. With a reliance on colors like black, white, cream, and grey, a quintessential feature of this décor style is using bolder colors as accents to pop against a neutral backdrop. Primary colors create added contrast and help to lead the eye throughout a room. Experiment with dark brown or black to create different moods within the mid-century modern color spectrum.

 

A mid-century modern living room with a herringbone hardwood floor, low leather couch and matching chair with black metal framing, a minimalist bookshelf, and a small coffee table with wooden peg legs.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: gremlin

 

4. Materials and Texture

Its ability to remain popular for decades is what separates this style. Its principles are still reflected in the latest home design trends. Perhaps nowhere is this more evident than its philosophy on materials and texture. It combines natural and synthetic materials to bridge the gap between eras, creating interiors that feel simultaneously vintage and modern. Plastic and fiberglass are commonly used manmade materials, while wood, marble, and stone are typical natural elements.

5. More Space, Less Clutter

Just as the space between objects is emphasized, open floorplans are typical in mid-century modern design to create spacious environments. Decorative décor is limited to reduce clutter, and enclosed storage spaces are kept to a minimum. If you’re planning to decorate in this style, it’s an opportunity to pare down your belongings and keep only what’s essential for your lifestyle at home.

Selling March 7, 2023

Deciding to Sell Your Home

Deciding when to sell your home can depend on a variety of factors. Perhaps your local market conditions are favorable to sellers, or you’ve recently changed jobs, or your family is growing and you need to upsize. Whatever the case may be, making the decision to sell your home is the first step in your selling journey.

Deciding to Sell Your Home

Once you know it’s time to sell your home, it’s natural to feel a wave of emotions. A home is an integral part of a homeowner’s life. They provide countless memories and, for many homeowners, are their greatest investment. But once you’ve decided to sell, it’s important to look at your home with an objective eye to appeal to a wide variety of buyers.

Which repairs should I make before selling my home?

To get your house in top selling shape, identify its outstanding repairs. As you fill out your list, separate the projects into categories which are DIY-eligible and which require a professional. This will help you to budget for your overall repair expenses and build a reasonable timeline. Some of the most important repairs to make before listing your home include fixing appliances, making sure your sinks and faucets work properly, repairing any cracks or holes in the walls, fixing all leaks and water damage, and ensuring that all systems in the home are functioning properly. Making repairs before you list your home will bode well for home inspections, negotiations, and can even give your home an advantage over other listings. Your agent may suggest a pre-listing inspection to make your home more competitive in a seller’s market.

Which upgrades should I make before selling my home?

When you sell your home, you’re inevitably competing against other listings in your area. The aesthetics of a house play a significant role in its ability to catch buyer’s attention, which emphasizes the importance of improving your curb appeal as you prepare to hit the market. Landscaping projects, new exterior paint, and upgrading your front entry are just a few ways you can spruce up the outside of your home.

And what about the interior? Consider upgrading to energy-efficient appliances, which are known for their high ROI potential. This is a great time to repaint your home’s interior as well. Consider using a neutral color palette to make it as appealing as possible to a wide-array of buyers. It’s also a good idea to identify rooms in which the flooring should be replaced or repaired. When remodeling your home’s flooring, choose a material that is within budget and has good resale value.

  • High ROI Remodeling Projects to Increase Home Value
  • Remodeling Projects to Avoid When Selling Your Home

Working With an Agent

Listing agents are trained professionals who work with homeowners to sell their homes. Your listing agent will be there to answer any questions you may have throughout the selling process and will negotiate with buyer’s agents to get the best price for your home. But their value doesn’t stop there. A listing agent will list the home, coordinate showings and open houses, and market the home. When searching for a real estate agent, find someone with whom you are compatible both emotionally and professionally, and who cares about the goals of you and your household.

What’s my home worth?

Homeowners can get a general idea of how much their home is worth by using online home value estimators, like Windermere’s free Home Worth Calculator. Though these tools can provide some context behind the value of your home, nothing compares to the in-depth analysis of an agent’s Comparative Market Analysis (CMA). Using a CMA, an agent can accurately price your home to get it sold quickly.

Market NewsMatthew Gardner February 28, 2023

Renting vs. Buying a Home: The Financial Benefits of Homeownership

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.


 


Renting vs. Buying a Home

One of my followers asked me about some of the financial benefits of owning your home as opposed to renting. I find this topic interesting as there really is a “laundry list” of reasons that, from a financial standpoint, owning a home is better than renting.

I’m Matthew Gardner Chief Economist at Windermere Real Estate and welcome to this month’s episode of Monday with Matthew. Let’s get to the topic at hand. Of course, I don’t have time to go through them all today but here are the ones that I think are the most compelling: wealth building and tax benefits.

The Financial Benefits of Homeownership 

The first thing to understand is that, over time, a mortgage becomes easier to afford. You see, when you buy a home, the mortgage payments themselves don’t change and, over time, your earnings rise but the mortgage payment doesn’t. Simply put, unlike renters who generally see their rents going up every year, your mortgage payment never will and because you’ll hopefully be making more money as time goes by, the share of your income that you spend on a mortgage payment becomes less & less.

The next advantage to owning your home is that it is a good long-term investment. Of course, some will say that this is not the case because we went through the housing bubble bursting back in 2006 but there have actually been very few times in history when home prices have seen any long-term downward adjustment.

Now I know some will say that investing in stocks would give you a higher long-term return. My response to that would be I’ve never seen anyone living under a stock certificate. Have you?

My next reason for believing that ownership is better than renting is rather simple, and that is because a portion of every mortgage payment you make goes toward reducing the principal amount of the loan. Of course, during a majority of the term of the mortgage most of the payment is going towards interest but, a small portion is paying down the debt itself—in essence making it a forced savings plan, building wealth along the way.

Tax Advantages of Owning a Home

But what about the tax advantages? Owning a home offers unique and substantial ways to save on your taxes every year. Firstly, you can deduct your real estate taxes every year. Now, tax reform has limited the total allowed deduction, but it is still meaningful. You can also deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage. Again, there are some limitations but, depending on where you live you could save a significant amount.

And finally, let’s talk Capital Gains Taxes. When you sell your primary residence and have seen its value grow since you purchased it, up to $250,000 of that profit (if you’re a single person) or $500,000 if you’re married and filing jointly is tax free. Now, this is only true if you meet certain requirements with the biggest one being that you have to have lived in the house for a minimum of two years during the preceding five-year period.

If that’s not enough to convince you that there are very significant advantages to owning a home over renting, I will leave you with one last datapoint that you may find of interest.

Renting vs. Owning a Home: Household Net Worth

Using Federal Reserve data as a base, I’ve been able to calculate the median net worth of a household in America who owned their homes versus a household that rents.

  • In 2022, the median household wealth of a homeowner household here in America was approximately $330,000.
  • The median household wealth for a renter household in this country last year was just $8,000.

As you can see, that’s quite the discrepancy between the two. I think it’s very clear that homeownership for a vast majority of families is how they create most of their wealth.

I hope you found this topic of interest. Of course, if you have any questions or comments please do let me know as I do enjoy hearing from you. Take care and I look forward to talking to you all again next month.

 

Data combined and calculated by Windermere Economics


About Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Buying February 20, 2023

How to Reduce Your Interest Rate: Mortgage Buydowns

This blog post contains contributions from Penrith Home Loans.


When mortgage rates are up, prospective buyers can often feel like they’re at a disadvantage as they go about securing a home loan. Fortunately, there are ways to lower your interest rate to make your monthly mortgage payments more affordable.

What are mortgage buydowns?

A mortgage rate buydown is a form of financing that allows you to secure a lower interest rate on your mortgage by paying more money upfront in the form of discount points, also known as mortgage points, at closing. Each discount point is equal to one percent of your total loan amount. Especially attractive in times of high mortgage rates, buydowns are offered by sellers, builders, or lenders depending on the transaction. There are two main types of mortgage interest rate buydowns: permanent and temporary.

Permanent Mortgage Buydowns

With a permanent interest rate buydown, typically the borrower, seller, or builder will contribute to the cost of buying down the rate permanently. In this situation, the borrower qualifies at the bought-down rate for the life of the loan.

Temporary Mortgage Buydowns

A temporary interest rate buydown provides cash flow for the borrower during the temporary period, but they still qualify at the higher note rate. Typically, the seller or builder will contribute to the cost of buying the rate down temporarily.

How do temporary mortgage buydowns work?

Temporary mortgage interest rate buydowns have their own unique structure. Below are three common types:

  • 1-0 Buydown Mortgage: The borrower gets a 1% discounted interest rate for the first year.
  • 2-1 Buydown Mortgage: The borrower gets a discounted interest rate for the first two years of the loan. The first year, the interest rate is 2% lower, decreasing to 1% lower the second year.
  • 3-2-1 Buydown Mortgage: The borrower gets a 3% discounted rate the first year, dropping to 2% in the second year and 1% in the third year.

Although they share certain characteristics with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), temporary mortgage buydowns are slightly different. ARMs initially have a fixed interest rate period. Once the adjustable-rate period kicks in, both the interest rate and monthly payments are subject to change. With buydowns, the buyer’s interest rate doesn’t change; either the seller or lender covers part of the interest payments as outlined by the buydown’s structure.

 

A man and woman homeowner couple discuss the terms of a mortgage buydown program with their mortgage broker in a modern office setting.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: kate_sept2004

 

Should I permanently buy down my mortgage?

Though buying down your mortgage interest rate permanently can make the payments more affordable, if you are contributing to this cost, make sure you can withstand the heavier financial load before proceeding. It also depends on how long you plan to live in the home. For example, if you plan to move shortly after buying, the short-term savings on your mortgage may not yet break even on your upfront costs by the time you’re ready to purchase again.

Pros of Mortgage Buydowns

  • Savings on monthly mortgage payments
  • A lower rate means you could qualify for a higher loan
  • Discount points = prepaid mortgage interest, which is often tax-deductible

Cons of Mortgage Buydowns

  • Higher upfront costs of buying a home
  • If payments increase, higher risk of foreclosure
  • Less cash available for remodeling, home improvements, etc.

 

A home office desk is filled with materials for a full day’s work; a full coffee cup, a smartphone, paperwork, and a laptop with a mortgage loan application form on the screen.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: cnythzl

 

How much can I save with a mortgage buydown?

Here’s an example of the savings you could see with a 3-2-1 temporary mortgage buydown. Let’s say you qualify for a 30-year mortgage with a $400,000 loan amount at an interest rate of 7%. With a 3-2-1 buydown, you’d pay a 4% interest rate the first year, 5% the second year, and 6% the third year. From year four on, you’d pay 7%.

 

Purchase Price Down Payment Loan Amount Interest Rate APR Loan Term
$500,000 $100,000 $400,000 7% 7.125% 30 years


3-2-1 Temporary Mortgage Interest Rate Buydown

 

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Years 4-30
Interest Rate 4% 5% 6% 7%
Number of Payments 12 12 12 336
Monthly P&I Payment $1,909.66 $2,147.29 $2,398.20 $2,661.21
Total PITI Payment $1,909.66 $2,147.29 $2,398.20 $2,661.21
Monthly Reduction $751.55 $513.92 $263.01

  • Calculations provided by Penrith Home Loans
  • Temporary buydown cost as % of purchase price 3.67%

 

With this structure, you’d save $9,018.60 the first year, $6,167.04 the second, and $3,156.12 the third, for a total three-year savings of $18,341.76.

Market NewsMatthew Gardner February 6, 2023

Q4 2022 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Although the job market in Western Washington continues to grow, the pace has started to slow. The region added over 91,000 new jobs during the past year, but the 12-month growth rate is now below 100,000, a level we have not seen since the start of the post-COVID job recovery. That said, all but three counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses and total regional employment is up more than 52,000 jobs. The regional unemployment rate in November was 3.8%, which was marginally above the 3.7% level of a year ago. Many business owners across the country are pondering whether we are likely to enter a recession this year. As a result, it’s very possible that they will start to slow their expansion in anticipation of an economic contraction.

Western Washington Home Sales

❱ In the final quarter of 2022, 12,711 homes sold, representing a drop of 42% from the same period in 2021. Sales were 34.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022.

❱ Listing activity rose in every market year over year but fell more than 26% compared to the third quarter, which is expected given the time of year.

❱ Home sales fell across the board relative to the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022.

❱ Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:2. This was down from 1:6 in the third quarter. That ratio has been trending lower for the past year, which suggests that buyers are being more cautious and may be waiting for mortgage rates to drop.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Western Washington from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. All counties have a negative percentage year-over-year change. Here are the totals: Jefferson at -19.9%, Skagit at -27.7%, Mason -30.7%, Lewis -30.9%, Clallam -34.3%, Whatcom -36.3%, Kitsap -38.5%, Snohomish -40.3%, Island -42%, Grays Harbor -42.3%, King -43.1%, Thurston -45.8%, San Juan -46.8%, Pierce -46.9%.

Western Washington Home Prices

❱ Sale prices fell an average of 2% compared to the same period the year prior and were 6.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. The average sale price was $702,653.

❱ The median listing price in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 5% lower than in the third quarter. Only Skagit County experienced higher asking prices. Clearly, sellers are starting to be more realistic about the shift in the market.

❱ Even though the region saw aggregate prices fall, prices rose in six counties year over year.

❱ Much will be said about the drop in prices, but I am not overly concerned. Like most of the country, the Western Washington market went through a period of artificially low borrowing costs, which caused home values to soar. But now prices are trending back to more normalized levels, which I believe is a good thing.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Western Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Grays Harbor and Whatcom Counties have a percentage change in the -6.5% to -3.6%+ range, Clallam, Jefferson, King, and Skagit counties are in the -3.5% to -0.6% change range, Snohomish and Pierce are in the -0.5% to 2.4% change range, Mason, Thurston, Island, and Lewis counties are in the 2.5% to 5.4% change range, and San Juan County is in the 5.5%+ change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Western Washington from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. San Juan County tops the list at 6.9%, followed by Lewis at 4.8%, Thurston at 3.8%, Island at 3.7%, Mason at 3.5%, Snohomish at 0.8%, Pierce at -0.2%, Clallam at -1%, Skagit at -2.1%, Jefferson at -2.5%, King at -3.1%, Whatcom at -4.1%, Kitsap at -5.3%, and finally Grays Harbor at -6.5%.

Mortgage Rates

Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop.

My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets such as Western Washington will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from Q4 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q4 2023. After the 6.79% figure in Q4 2022, he forecasts mortgage rates dipping to 6.27% in Q1 2023, 6.09% in Q2 2023, 5.76% in Q3 2023, and 5.42% in Q4 2023.

Western Washington Days on Market

❱ It took an average of 41 days for homes to sell in the fourth quarter of 2022. This was 17 more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and 16 days more than in the third quarter of 2022.

❱ King County was again the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 31 days to find a buyer.

❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market rise from the same period a year ago.

❱ Year over year, the greatest increase in market time was Snohomish County, where it took an average of 23 more days to find a buyer. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, San Juan County saw average market time rise the most (from 34 to 74 days).

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Western Washington for Q4 2022. King County has the lowest DOM at 31, followed by Kitsap at 45, Island and Snohomish at 35, Whatcom, Thurston, and Skagit at 36, Pierce at 37, Clallam at 38, Jefferson at 40, Mason at 43, Grays Harbor at 46, Lewis at 49, and San Juan at 74.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The regional economy is still growing, but it is showing signs of slowing. Although this is not an immediate concern, if employees start to worry about job security, they may decide to wait before making the decision to buy or sell a home. As we move through the spring I believe the market will be fairly soft, but I would caution buyers who think conditions are completely shifting in their direction. Due to the large number of homeowners who have a mortgage at 3% or lower, I simply don’t believe the market will become oversupplied with inventory, which will keep home values from dropping too significantly.

A speedometer graph indicating a balanced market, barely leaning toward a seller's market in Western Washington in Q4 2022.

Ultimately, however, the market will benefit buyers more than sellers, at least for the time being. As such, I have moved the needle as close to the balance line as we have seen in a very long time.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market NewsMatthew Gardner January 23, 2023

2023 Real Estate Forecast: Why This Market Won’t Be Like 2008

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.



Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to the first episode of “Monday with Matthew” for 2023. As has become tradition, this first episode of the year will be dedicated to my real estate forecast for the U.S. housing market, so let’s get straight to it.

2023 Real Estate Forecast

Existing Home Sales & Forecast

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph showing the existing home sales for the years 2015 through 2021, plus forecasts for 2022 and 2023. The y-axis is in millions and the x-axis contains the years. The numbers are as follows (in millions): 5.3 in 2015, 5.5 in 2016 and 2017, 5.3 in 2018 and 2019, 5.6 in 2020, 6.1 in 2021, 5.1 (forecasted) in 2022, and 4.8 (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

U.S. home sales trended lower through all of 2022 and, although I believe that sales will still have held above five million, this certainly won’t be the case in 2023. Affordability and higher financing costs will continue to act as headwinds when it comes to sales, but I think that the bigger issue will be that listing activity will not rise significantly as we move through the year.

As I have been saying for several months now, I don’t see why many households who don’t have to move will move and lose the historically low interest rate that they currently benefit from. That said, sales will still occur this year but at just 4.8 million, sales will be lower than we have seen since 2014.

Annual Change in Median Sale Prices

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph showing the annual change in median sale prices for homes in the U.S. real estate market. The years 2015 through 2023 are on the x-axis and percentages -4% through 20% run the length of the y-axis. The numbers are as follows: 6.8% in 2015, 5.1% in 2016, 5.7% in 2017, 4.9% in 2018 and 2019, 9.1% in 2020, 18.2% in 2021, 8.7% (forecasted) in 2022, and -1.1% (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

Much has been said about the future of home prices, with some forecasters even suggesting that housing prices will collapse in a similar fashion to that seen following the bursting of the housing bubble back in 2008. Now, although price growth through the pandemic period was clearly excessive, fundamentally speaking, the two periods cannot be considered to be similar at all.

It’s my opinion that sale prices in 2023 will be very modestly lower than last year and I certainly don’t expect to see a collapse in home values.

But not all markets are created equal. The pandemic created what has become known as “Zoom-Towns.” These were cheap markets that affluent buyers flocked to because of their newly found ability to work from home and this led sale prices there to soar. It’s these locations that will likely see prices fall more significantly. Ultimately, expect to see prices fall through the first half of this year before starting to recover in the second half.

New Home Starts & Forecast (Single Family)

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph of the single-family new home starts. The y-axis shows numbers in thousands from 0 to 1,200 and the x-axis shows the years 2015 through 2023. The numbers are as follows: 715 in 2015, 782 in 2016, 849 in 2017, 876 in 2018, 888 in 2019, 991 in 2020, 1,127 in 2021, 1,009 (forecasted) in 2022, and 837 (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

Looking now at the new construction market, housing starts fell last year as construction costs remained high and mortgage rates rose which lowered demand.  And I’m afraid that I do not see 2023 as being one where builders will deliver more inventory, with starts pulling back to a level the country hasn’t seen since 2016. That said, I am expecting a recovery in 2024 when new home starts will break back above the 1,000,000 level.

New Home Sales Forecast

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph showing the new home sales numbers from the U.S. housing market. The y-axis shows (in thousands) the numbers 200 to 900 and the x-axis shows the years 2015 through 2023. The number of new home sales are as follows (in thousands): 501 in 2015, 561 in 2016, 613 in 2017, 617 in 2018, 683 in 2019, 822 in 2020, 771 in 2021, 653 (forecasted) in 2022, and 584 (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

New home sales in 2023 will fall further coming in below 600,000 but there is some light at the end of the tunnel with sales picking up fairly significantly again in 2024. We all understand that the country has a significant undersupply of ownership housing, but the costs associated with building new homes is still making it remarkably hard for builders even though they understand that demand will be significant for at least the next decade and a half given current demographics.

But the problem they will continue to face is that demand will primarily come from entry level buyers and, simply put, the cost to build a home precludes many developers from being able to meet this demand.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate & Forecast

A bar graph showing the average 30-year mortgage rate for the years 2015 through 2023. The y-axis shows percentages ranging from 0% to 7% and the years are displayed on the x-axis. The numbers are as follows: 3.9% in 2015, 3.7% in 2016, 4% in 2017, 4.5% in 2018, 3.9% in 2019, 3.1% in 2020, 3% in 2021, 5.4% in 2022, and 6.1% (forecasted) in 2023. This is the mortgage rate component of Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

And finally, my forecast for mortgage rates in 2023. Although this might not look good at all, as they say, “the devil is in the details.” Rates skyrocketed last year as the Fed stopped buying treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and, although they are off the highs we saw toward the end of last year, they are still significantly higher today than the market has become used to seeing.

As you can see here, I’m anticipating the average 30-year conventional rate to average 6.1% in 2023, but my forecast is actually a bit better than this shows.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast 2023

A bar graph showing the average 30-year mortgage rate in recent quarters, plus a forecast of the mortgage rate for each quarter in 2023. The y-axis displays percentages ranging from 0% to 7% and the x-axis displays the quarters from Q4 2021 to Q4 2023. The numbers are as follows: 3.1% in Q4 2021, 3.8% in Q1 2022, 5.3% in Q2 2022, 5.6% in Q3 2022, 6.8% in Q4 2022, 6.4% (forecasted) in Q1 2023, 6.1% (forecasted) in Q2 2023, 6% (forecasted) in Q3 2023, and 5.6% (forecasted) in Q4 2023. This is the mortgage rate component to Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

You see, my quarterly forecast suggests that rates have actually already peaked, and that they will trend lower as we move through this year and break below 6% by the fourth quarter. I would add that if anything my forecast may be a little pessimistic, and rates may end 2023 a little lower than I am showing here.

But that will depend on the Fed, and how long they will continue raising rates, and how long it will take before they start to lower them if the US enters a recession this year, which many forecasters including myself believe will be the case.

So, there you have it, my 2023 U.S. housing forecast. I will leave you with this one last thought. 2023 will be a transition year when the housing market will come off the “high” we saw during the pandemic and borrowing costs were artificially low.

I don’t see any reason for buyers or sellers to panic though. By the end of 2023, most markets will have corrected themselves and I believe we will see prices and demand start to pick up again toward the end of this year, but at a far more normalized pace.

As always, I look forward to your comments on my forecasts and I’ll see you all again next month. Take care now.

 


About Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Living January 9, 2023

7 Tips for Sustainable Living at Home

There’s always room for improvement in a household’s quest to go green. From how you use your appliances to the way you consume and dispose of food, every lifestyle choice you make at home presents an opportunity to be more eco-friendly. Adopting more sustainable practices has obvious environmental benefits and helps to improve quality of life, but it can also increase your home value and in some cases may generate extra cash.

7 Tips for Sustainable Living at Home

1. Create a Sustainable Kitchen

The kitchen is responsible for a decent portion of your home’s energy output. Choosing energy-efficient appliances can help to improve your household’s sustainability by using less energy. Reusable materials go a long way in the kitchen as well. Even seemingly small changes like switching from single use to reusable grocery bags and eliminating paper towels can make an impact. Using natural cleaning products will keep your kitchen cleaner longer while improving your home’s air quality, and being mindful about water usage can save on utility bills.

2. Plant an Herb Garden

To further improve your home’s sustainability, consider planting an herb garden. This helps to cut down on repeatedly buying spices and seasonings at the grocery store while cultivating a natural ambience in your home. (And they’re fun to cook with, too!) Do indoor plants need sunlight? Of course, so be sure to position your indoor garden in an area where your plants have direct access. Once you’ve picked out a spot, decide which herbs you’d like to grow. Some of the most common herbs are easy to grow and will pair well with whatever’s on the menu—basil, thyme, cilantro, parsley, oregano, etc.

3. Tips for a More Energy Efficient Home

The first step in becoming more energy efficient at home is understanding your energy output. Once you understand your household’s habits, you can identify which cutbacks will help you chart a more sustainable path forward. Energy-efficient lightbulbs can help you save on utility bills. Because they use less energy that standard lightbulbs, they typically last longer as well. Make sure your home is properly insulated and your windows’ caulking and weatherstripping is in good condition. Air leaks and poor insulation waste energy and will cause spikes in your utility bills.

 

A woman practices sustainable habits by washing a plate in her kitchen sink. The sponge is full of soap and the water is off while she scrubs the plate.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Nattakorn Maneerat

 

4. Reduce Waste at Home

Every household produces some sort of waste, but it’s how that waste is treated that makes all the difference for the environment. Clean your recycling to make it easier to process and do your best to only buy what you plan to eat. Start a compost bin for extra food scraps or consider other agricultural solutions for disposing of it. Consider buying items like shampoo, conditioner, moisturizers, and the like in bulk to cut down on packaging waste. Reusable glass containers or jars will help you portion out meals and provide a useful way to store bulk items like rice and beans.

5. Use Solar Energy

Yes, making the switch to solar energy comes with significant upfront costs. But an investment in solar is not just an investment in the health of the planet, it can increase your home value as well. The energy savings you’ll generate in the long-term will depend on your household’s level of consumption and the power generated by your solar panels. And if you’re generating more power than you’re consuming, you may be able to sell the surplus energy back to the grid. For more information on solar-based incentives and tax breaks by state, visit DSIRE (Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency®).

 

A worker installs a solar panel on the rooftop of a sustainable home as the sun sets behind him.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: ArtistGNDphotography

 

6. Sustainable Gardening Best Practices

Even for the green thumbs, there’s opportunity to go greener at home. A garden is only as healthy as its soil. Mulching is vital to soil health and helps to reduce weed growth. Animal manure also has the power to enrich garden soil, both as a fertilizer and conditioner. Organic weed killers made with natural ingredients will maintain your garden’s health while keeping unwanted weeds at bay. Apply this same organic mindset to dealing with slugs as well. Certain types of slug bait may possess certain chemicals that do more harm than good, especially if you have farm animals on your property like chickens or goats.

7. Sustainable Laundry Room Tips

Before you begin your next cycle in the laundry room, consider some methods of reducing energy. Because the heating of water is responsible for a majority of the energy generated by doing laundry, using cold water can help you save on energy costs. Cold water is also gentler on clothing. Clean the dryer vent and filter regularly to keep it unclogged and running efficiently. Consider hang-drying when possible, and in warmer months, air dry your clothes to save a dryer cycle.

For more information on sustainable living, helpful advice on home upgrades, plus tips on DIY home projects and more, visit the Living section of the Windermere blog.

Design December 27, 2022

What is Gothic Revival Architecture?

If you’ve ever seen a home like the one in the photo above, certain words like “romantic” or “medieval” may have come to mind. The architectural style shown here is Gothic Revival, a unique branch of design that grew popular in the mid-19th century. Though it fell out of fashion shortly thereafter, this signature architectural style has left a lasting impression on home design.

What is Gothic Revival Architecture?

The most defining characteristics of Gothic Revival architecture are its pointed arches, steeply pitched roofs, intricate wooden trim, and its preference for vertical elements. As opposed to the horizontal nature of the rambler home style, Gothic Revival architecture reaches skyward. Gothic Revival also borrows elements of castles, such as towers with parapets and/or spires.

The architectural style eventually took on other variants. Victorian Gothic borrowed from elements of the Victorian era, and the North American adaptation Carpenter Gothic used a Gothic influence as the basis for a new style of home design popularized in the late 19th century.

 

A light blue Gothic Revival home with brick trim on top of a hill on a sunny day. Corners of the home have exposed white-washed brick while the walls are light blue stucco. The windows have ornate white trim and has a double front door. The home has three sections, with the middle column the tallest, the right side is slightly protruding out and the left is tucked back behind the center tower, each has a roof with inverted gothic arches.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: glasslanguage

 

A low angle shot of a three-story brick Gothic Revival home on a corner lot with a colorful garden. The corner of the house has a round tower with a pointed roof, calling back to rounded tower castles, with a rounded wrap-around porch underneath.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: fotoVoyager

 

Although Gothic Revival most naturally translated to larger buildings such as churches, mansions, prisons, and schools, the Gothic Carpenter style maintained many of the key characteristics that define the unique style with slight twists to accommodate for residential home life.

Beyond the vertical visuals, steep roofs, and arched doorways, residential gothic architecture also incorporated elements like board and batten wood siding, roof gables, ornate crown molding, and slim porch columns. Gothic-style homes are easily identifiable and much rarer than ubiquitous home styles such as craftsman, cottage, and mid-century modern.

BuyingSelling December 13, 2022

Real Estate Terminology: Contingent, Pending, Under Contract, and More

Different real estate transactions have different conditions based on the status of the listing. The following information is meant to clarify some common real estate terms that describe a home for sale and its position in the closing process.

For sellers, understanding this terminology will inform your conversations with your agent when it comes time to sell. And for buyers, it helps to be familiar with these terms when searching for your next home and how they factor into making an offer.

What is the difference between pending and under contract?

Pending: When a home is listed as “pending” it means the seller has accepted the buyer’s offer and the sale will most likely be finalized after a successful final inspection and the buyer securing financing. For sellers, reaching the pending stage means the finish line is within reach, but your home is still not officially off the market.

Buyers who notice homes listed as pending should know that an agreement between the seller and another buyer has already been reached and that they are headed for closing. However, even though the chances are unlikely, it is still possible that the buyer backs out and the deal falls through.

Under Contract: A home that’s listed as “under contract” is not as far along in the selling process as a home that’s pending. It means the seller has accepted a buyer’s offer, but there are certain contingencies that must be met before the deal goes final.

Buyers who see a home listed as “under contract” may still reach out to the seller’s listing agent to make a backup offer, unless the contract that’s already in place contains a clause preventing it.

 

In a modern office, a man and woman shake hands with their real estate agent as they go over the terms of a real estate contract.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: xavierarnau

 

What does contingent mean in real estate?

Contingencies dictate what must happen in a real estate transaction for the contract to become legally binding, giving the buyer or seller the right to back out of the contract if their conditions aren’t met. A property listed as “contingent” means that the seller has accepted an offer, but the deal still hinges on the buyer satisfying certain contingencies to continue. And once those contingencies have been met, the sale can go through as planned.

There are a variety of contingencies that protect buyers and sellers against the bumps in the road along their journey of buying or selling a home. A home sale contingency, for example, allows a buyer to tie their offer on a new home to the successful sale of their existing one. This contingency is beneficial to those who are buying and selling a home at the same time. It’s important for buyers to work with their agent to determine the strongest offer considering the market conditions in the area.

What is closing in real estate?

Closing refers to the homestretch of a real estate agreement between a buyer and seller, leading to the transfer of ownership. Both parties agree on a closing date and see the deal through to its completion. During closing, the buyer will deposit their earnest money in an escrow account, a home inspection is performed, the buyer secures financing to purchase the home, and both parties pay their respective closing costs.

Design November 28, 2022

Designing Your Rental To Feel Like Home

When you own your living space, it’s natural to feel attached to every square inch. But for renters, creating that sense of ownership is a unique challenge. Whatever limitations you face as a renter in how you’re able to make alterations, it’s no less important to your home life for your space to convey a sense of ownership and self. To make a rental unit feel a bit more like home, we collected a few ways to imbue your abode with your own spirit, without risking your security deposit.

Designing Your Rental to Feel Like Home

Storage

Sufficient storage space is a common shortcoming of rentals, leaving renters in a position where they either need to invest in a public storage space or get creative at home. But even getting creative at home can be tough, since most rental properties have limitations on what renovations and customizations renters are able to make, especially if the property is governed by a Homeowners Association (HOA).

So, what’s a renter to do? Add some simple, no-to-low damage shelves to make room for décor accents, accessories, and house plants that reinforce your design choices.

Shop around for freestanding bookshelves, baskets, or use under-the-bed storage bins to free up additional space and declutter the areas of your home where items are stacking up. Search for furniture that doubles as storage, like an open-top ottoman or a side table with a drawer or shelf.

Blinds and Curtains

How you decorate your windows can greatly personalize your rental. Consider swapping out your blinds for curtains to add a splash of color and a more regal aesthetic to your living space. But don’t be too quick to throw away your blinds—you may not get your entire security deposit back! Before making these kinds of changes, or adding hardware like curtain rods, be sure to ask your landlord for permission.

 

A young man relaxes in the living room of his rental looking out his window with beige curtains and house plants around him

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Adene Sanchez

 

Accessorize

When decorating, it’s the smaller things like pillows, throws, candles, and books that will really tie your home together and make it feel unique to you. If you’re able to change your light fixtures, it can make a world of difference. Find the right lighting by thinking about what temperature of light appeals to you, and whether you want accent, task, or ambient lighting.

Gallery Wall

Hanging up your art collection with hooks and nails can damage the walls, so be sure to use a stud finder to make the process of creating a gallery wall easier. And besides, when you’re preparing to move out, a few hanging holes from nails and screws is nothing that a little spackling paste, a putty knife, some sandpaper, and a new coat of paint can’t fix.

Again, ask your landlord before you add any holes in the home. When you’re touring, ask the landlord to keep the existing holes in the walls so you can use them, or ask if you can get the paint color information so you can patch and make touch ups yourself. Many landlords keep matching wall and trim paint on hand for such instances.

 

A young man relaxes in the living room of his rental looking out his window with beige curtains and house plants around him

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: KatarzynaBialasiewicz

 

Carpet and Flooring

If your flooring is worn, cracked, or damaged in any way, there’s likely little you can do to replace it other than documenting the damage and running it up the flagpole. Fortunately, you have carte blanche to decorate with carpeting as you please. Carpets also serve as a protective layer to avoid further damage to your floors during your tenancy.

Bolder rug materials like shag, tufted cotton, and wool will automatically make your space cozier. If your choice in carpeting is more driven by style, consider vibrant colors, bold patterns, or geometric area rugs to spice things up.